A very real NFL market bias that just never stops

[The Chaperone]

I think we'll all be on this. Just a matter of timing the market.

[groovinmahoovin]

I figured since 36 and 43 were pretty dead, 43+14 would be equally dead, although looking it up those two are less dead than I thought (probably about 2.5% pushes), and that's a good point about 27-27.

[Cutter]

42 and 39 are dead.

36 and 43 are not so much. and yes add 14 to each and even less dead. higher number have more chances of having a hit rate than low ones. for example 1 is completely dead. 6 is nearly dead. 9 is almost dead. 10 while very possible is almost dead cause teams rarely score just 2 times in an entire game.

the higher totalled college and nfl totals become more like nba and arena football totals. get more than a point from what you believe the right total should be and you have an edge. 60, 61, 62 in college are all key for example, the hit rates somewhat level out as large numbers. although 61 is odd so it does hit a little bit more.

[The Chaperone]

SB kind of a different animal, but would be interested in people's thoughts.

First, what would the total on this game be if it were played Sunday morning in week 10?

Second, what do you make of the SB's supposed tendency for high totals? Is this real? Is it variance due to a small sample? Do offenses benefit more from the extra week of preparation? Do defenses weaken, perhaps due to fatigue or injuries, throughout the season?

[PerpetualCzech]

Scoring does tend to increase as the regular season progresses. Here are average points by Week number since 1989:

1-4: 40.83
5-8: 41.72
9-12: 41.30
13-17: 41.52
18-20 (first 3 weeks of playoffs): 43.26

The increase may not appear to be a lot, but there's also the weather factor in Nov and Dec which the Super Bowl doesn't have. There's a similar trend in the CFL fwiw.

I think there are good reasons why offenses should tend to improve more than defences as the season goes along. Offence is Act and defence is React. There's a lot more creativity involved in trying to improve an offence and as the season goes along you get to observe what works and what doesn't and adjust accordingly. Defensive strategy seems more one-dimensional to me and doesn't have as much room for improvement.

Having said all that I think I love the Under. That number feels crazy lol

[The Chaperone]

In addition to the weather factor late in the season, many week 17 games play more like pre season games with starters resting etc. We all know NFLX totals are much lower.

[martidani]

Yeah I really think 57 is unbelievably insane. Still a few spots in Vegas have it (Palms, Coasts, etc etc). I tried to whack a couple, and it didn't move a bit. Whoever whacked M, Venetian, Stations, and GN must of have doing multiple max bets until they moved.

I am a sportsbetting donk but I have to make at least one big annual bet. This is it for me. I usually wait for the donks on a public game, but i think this is so off that I don't think 57.5 or 58 are ever going to show up. All the sharps are on standby, waiting for the plops to move this. I know the public is dumb, but they are not retarded. Over 57???!!!!!

In my donkish opinion, even though the public money is yet to come, I don't think this one ever reaches 57.5. I am in at U57.

[PerpetualCzech]

Originally Posted by PerpetualCzech

BTW, out-of-sample record on this finished at 16-7-1 for the regular season.

Was curious to update this. Out-of-sample record for this subset (Under NFL totals of 45 or greater) since the start of this thread now stands at 88-83-2, 51.4%. Nothing remarkable but I figured I had to post it if I took the trouble to look at it.

[Cutter]

The underlying reasons are real. It is really a sampling bias and not a bias in the market. The market just gets it wrong because stats and previous performance are used to determine sides and totals as if these teams played in a vaccuum and that the recent performances are indicative of future performances.

Add to this the fact that the public eats up these over bets like candy, hiding the sharp under money by a general lack of line movement or even moving against the sharp money.

Sampling bias, not really a market bias.

[martidani]

Anyone on the Lions/Saints U60?