Kelly question for Super Bowl

[WarDekar]

Originally Posted by Prop Man

Who had which side? And how different is my number from yours and Custer's?

I had the -7.5 at +200. My "gut check" thought was closer to 50%, I'm not sure how the high total would affect your # but it can only help my side of it. It was a small bet (especially for Custer, ha), just thought it was a little interesting since it was tough to figure out analytically.

My best method of estimation was using the biggest lead by either team @15.5 flat (it closed lower), even if IND has 2/3 of that NO is 17% to be -15.5 at any point in the game, and certainly had to be >33% at -7.5.

Another way to think about it is they were 15%ish to cover -7.5 for the game, and while it's not immediately obvious, they should be >2x that for at any point in the game because a.) IND backdoor covers the +7.5 a lot, and b.) NO doesn't always win the game when they're -7.5 early on.