Roughing the Punter http://www.roughingthepunter.com Message boards devoted to sports betting and other forms of advantage gambling. en Sun, 20 May 2012 02:21:46 GMT vBulletin 60 http://www.roughingthepunter.com/images/misc/rss.jpg Roughing the Punter http://www.roughingthepunter.com <![CDATA[balkin' bob, sit your ass down]]> http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2651&goto=newpost Fri, 18 May 2012 19:42:55 GMT http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/umpire-bob-davidson-suspended-one-game-poor-situation-165346691.html http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-bi...165346691.html ]]> General Forum BillysWater http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2651 sundown horses 2012 http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2650&goto=newpost Fri, 18 May 2012 18:23:13 GMT preakness matchups ($500 max as of now so 1u max here)

creative cause +163 over i'll have another 1u ]]> No Arguments-A Forum for Picks sundown http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2650 Interleague Play http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2649&goto=newpost Thu, 17 May 2012 21:40:44 GMT Wasn't there some absurd stat about how well AL did in these games with a fairly large sample? How did they do last year out-of-sample? ]]> General Forum PerpetualCzech http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2649 Matt Kemp http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2648&goto=newpost Tue, 15 May 2012 06:25:24 GMT could it be possible that he's worth a full run on the total?

tonight's game opened 6o-115 and closed -140u or 5.5.

It looks like the opener was adjusted down a half then
crunched down another half. Or am I wrong assuming
a 6.5 opener with him? ]]> General Forum Heimie http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2648 Official BOS/PHIL 2H Under 87.5 Tilt Thread http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2647&goto=newpost Tue, 15 May 2012 01:37:11 GMT Jfc Jfc ]]> General Forum PerpetualCzech http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2647 The Ridiculous Texas Rangers http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2646&goto=newpost Mon, 14 May 2012 03:54:50 GMT Not only have the Rangers not been shutout this season, they have scored in the first five innings of every game but one. The Tribe managed to shut... Not only have the Rangers not been shutout this season, they have scored in the first five innings of every game but one. The Tribe managed to shut them out for seven. ]]> General Forum Jon in Oakland http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2646 as of sat 5/12... odds on either nl or al to produce an mlb triple crown winner http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2645&goto=newpost Sat, 12 May 2012 03:10:00 GMT your esimated fair value price: your esimated fair value price: ]]> General Forum sundown http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2645 Terrible hedging advice from sportswagers.ca aka Brian Sherwood http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2644&goto=newpost Fri, 11 May 2012 20:52:00 GMT sportswagers.ca, aka Brian Sherwood aka Brian Steinberg, has a pretty impressive long term NHL record--since I first heard of him in 2005 he has an... sportswagers.ca, aka Brian Sherwood aka Brian Steinberg, has a pretty impressive long term NHL record--since I first heard of him in 2005 he has an ROI around 3% vs mostly Pinnacle lines. But some of his betting advice is flat out bizarre, and in some cases terrible. Before game 6 of the WAS/NYR series, he wrote:

Quote:
Updated series price after game 5
Washington +339 over N.Y. Rangers Pinnacle
The Capitals are -106 in tonight’s game but instead of playing them here and laying a bit of juice, we’ll take them in the series in the hopes of them forcing a game seven. At that point, we’ll have Washington at +339 in a one game showdown in which anything can happen. This series has been extremely close with each game being in question right down to the final minutes. The last four games have been decided by a goal with two of them going into OT. The Rangers are an offensively challenged club, Braden Holtby has been outstanding and if not for a goal with six seconds left in game five, the Rangers would be in big trouble. They’re still not out of the woods and the offering here remains one of value with a decent chance of paying off. Play: Washington +339 to win series (Risking 1 unit).
The +339 didn't seem like the best option because with the -106 g6 line, it implied a g7 line of +125 and I was almost certain I'd be able to get better than that, but it wasn't terrible, and it's possible he expected the line to be lower in case of a Washington thrashing. Yet he compounds that with some truly wretched advice:

Quote:
GAME 7
N.Y. Rangers -139 over WASHINGTON
We’re going to free roll on the Caps in game 7. We have them to win the series at +339 in a wager we recommended before game six. As a result of that wager, if the Rangers win, we lose 1 unit on the series and win 1 unit on them here, therefore breaking even. Should the Caps win, we lose -1.39 units on the Blue Shirts tonight but win 3.39 units on our updated series bet for a profit of 2 units. This is a bet you should make only if you were on board with us after game six. Had we not made that bet, we’d be recommending Washington. They should’ve already won this series but instead of folding after that game-five heartbreaking loss, they came back and played its best game of the series. Braden Holtby is certainly in the Rangers' kitchen. The Rangers appear frustrated and have little confidence in beating the hot goaltender. The Caps have momentum and confidence and they’re very likely to put these regular-season overacheivers away here. The play is Washington, if you don't have anything else attached to this one. For those on board prior, our play is protecting our investment with New York. (Risking 1.39 units to win 1).
This guy is widely considered the greatest hockey handicapper on the forums, yet isn't able to calculate simple series prices, nor understand basic hedging advice. It's bad enough to hedge for the sake of hedging, but it's worse to deliberately make a -EV bet to hedge a bet that was worse than the implied game 7 bet, and even worse to pass up on a +EV bet in the process. I've seen him use that "freeroll" argument before with his series prices, as I recall he did it on the NAS/DET series, so he's made this mistake many times.

Anyway, the reason why I put this in its own thread instead of the "best threads from other forums" is because I've been betting this guy's stuff since 2005 and the record is pretty impressive (ROI slightly over 3% over 2000ish picks), but is it possible to be a winning bettor while misunderstanding simple concepts like the above that are straight out of gambling 101? There's something like 3 touts I'll follow, but I wonder if I'm making a mistake.

Over on RAS's forum, their two recommended handicappers, StevieY and NBAGuru, give out some pretty awful advice (StevieY has said many, many times line moves are irrelevant, beating the closing line is irrelevant, and line moves are even more irrelevant in CBB totals, which is funny because one of RAS's main selling points is how they beat the CBB closing line, and NBAGuru has given out awful advice about betting team totals and increasing your bets on a losing streak because you're "due"), and the mantra from their moderators is that "optimal handicapping and optimal betting are two different things." I've never believed that, but then again, I follow StevieY's stuff when I can and follow this sportswagers.ca's hockey. ]]> General Forum GroovinMahoovinPartDeux http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2644 Mathprof http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2643&goto=newpost Fri, 11 May 2012 12:55:17 GMT In case anyone didn't see, poster Mathprof from BJ21, Mike Canjar, died of caner a few days ago.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._Michael_Canjar

I've never read BJ21 but recognized the name from a thread not long ago where some other "Mathprof" on the square forums was mentioned. ]]> General Forum GroovinMahoovinPartDeux http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2643 Good bet or bad bet? http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2642&goto=newpost Sun, 06 May 2012 23:46:22 GMT Bottom of the 17th in BAL/BOS. BAL up 9-6 with Chris Davis (a position player) pitching. They have used up all their relievers. I took Over... Bottom of the 17th in BAL/BOS. BAL up 9-6 with Chris Davis (a position player) pitching. They have used up all their relievers.

I took Over 15.5 +220.

Good bet or bad bet? ]]> General Forum donovan http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2642 Cinco De Mayo Hangover? http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2641&goto=newpost Sun, 06 May 2012 20:46:46 GMT This site is drawing no interest today. Perhaps everybody is flying back from Macau from the holiday. This site is drawing no interest today.

Perhaps everybody is flying back from Macau from the holiday. ]]> General Forum Jeff Jones http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2641 Sarah Phillips? http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2640&goto=newpost Fri, 04 May 2012 17:25:14 GMT Surprised no one has posted about this before. I've never heard of the girl, but a friend of mine was telling me about her. A couple links (or you could be better off Googling it):

Deadspin
HuffPo

Short version: She was a poster at Covers, claimed to be a sports betting expert, got picked up by ESPN Page 2, Deadspin investigates her and she turns out to be a fraud (surprise, surprise). ]]> General Forum WarDekar http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2640 <![CDATA[The One Time The "Occupy" Idiots May Be Right]]> http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2638&goto=newpost Fri, 04 May 2012 13:51:29 GMT I hate this whole "Occupy Wall Street" movement. It's fine when it's just a bunch of kids sitting around the campfire strumming "We Shall Overcome." Breaking or exploding stuff is probably a little much, ya' think?

The Facebook IPO. The dog and pony show starts Monday and it starts trading 5/18. Have you called your broker to find out how many shares of the IPO you can get in on?

I'll save you the call. None.

Facebook will all go, just as all hot issues do, to the institutions and hedge funds. Individual branch offices may be allotted a few shares to mollify their best customers. The rich will get richer.

Hopefully, you own a mutual fund that will get a position. That's your only shot.

That's why we are stuck betting on the Gila Monsters daily. ]]> General Forum Jeff Jones http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2638 This Is A New Tact From Perp http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2637&goto=newpost Fri, 04 May 2012 03:57:47 GMT He "closes" off threads after he gets the last word.

I assume that was because of me.

Perp, open them up back. I'm not that evil. ]]> General Forum Jeff Jones http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2637 The truth hurts http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2636&goto=newpost Fri, 04 May 2012 01:59:52 GMT Surely i'll be banned for telling the truth, but i gotta say, this is hilarious! Ya tell it how it is, thread gets locked, finally, perp bans you.
Not sure how i'll be able to sleep tonight, but isn't this the exact behavior that's been criticized at lva? You know, the shit that's talked about in the ever popular thread 'best from other forums'? Talk about hypocritical.

Why, oh why can't I be a sharp? Take care all. Keep up the +EV ]]> General Forum Unclebuck http://www.roughingthepunter.com/showthread.php?t=2636