Defensive props

[Prop Man]

A note about Over/Unders on number of Tackles (solo + assists) by individual players. Looks to me like the worse team you are, the more tackles you will have. It is an odd statistic. More tackles for any individual player is usually a good sign that he's a good player. But more tackles for a team as a whole is a bad sign. I think just this stat just about proves it:

The 0-16 Lions had 1155 tackles on defense while their opponents only made 899 tackles.

Other info:

6 of the 7 lowest tackling teams made the playoffs. Only 2 of the top 7 tackling teams made the playoffs. There is still a bunch of variety to the stat, but in general, the more tackles your defense has, the worse off you are. To add to the potential confusion, Pittsburgh did have more tackles than Arizona this year, but the Steelers lost out to their opponents on defensive tackles during the regular season by about 5 per game. The Steelers were 8th in tackles this year, but they were 29th in tackles in 2007, so it shows how meaningful (meaningless?) this stat may be.

Without compiling more data, it looks like there is some anti-correlation between winning and tackles made by your defense. Given that the line is 7 in the Super Bowl, I am going to be extra careful when consider Overs on Pittsburgh player tackles and Unders on Arizona player tackles.

[Prop Man]

By the way, does anyone know who the official scorer for NFL games work for? Are they home-town employees or NFL employees that move from city to city? I am wondering if some teams have official scorers that like to give out assists more than other teams. Steelers' defensive players had a ton of assisted tackles, many many more than Arizona. It may be warranted...but if the official scorer is a hometown guy, then maybe the Steelers have a guy that is willing to award their defensive players a bit more, especially given that the Steelers are known as a good defensive team.

[The Chaperone]

Well when you think about it, teams that are down throw the ball more. On passing plays there is less likely to be a tackle as there is no tackle if the ball is incomplete, and I would think a higher percentage of completed pass plays end with a player going out of bounds as compared to rushing plays.

Of course conversely teams who are ahead tend to run the ball more, which means the other team gets to rack up cheap tackles.

Lastly, I'm not sure if sacks are counted as tackles. Better teams get more sacks and if these are not double counted, that could be where some of the 'tackles' are going...

[TJMAXX]

By the way, does anyone know who the official scorer for NFL games work for? Are they home-town employees or NFL employees that move from city to city? I am wondering if some teams have official scorers that like to give out assists more than other teams. Steelers' defensive players had a ton of assisted tackles, many many more than Arizona. It may be warranted...but if the official scorer is a hometown guy, then maybe the Steelers have a guy that is willing to award their defensive players a bit more, especially given that the Steelers are known as a good defensive team.

I'm not sure, but I can recall at least a two games this year where betting on a the home team tackler UN turned into a loss due to bullshit scoring of tackle stats...

[Jon in Oakland]

and I would think a higher percentage of completed pass plays end with a player going out of bounds as compared to rushing plays.



If a defensive player "escorts" an offensive player out of bounds does he get credit for a tackle?

[Prop Man]

I'm not sure, but I can recall at least a two games this year where betting on a the home team tackler UN turned into a loss due to bullshit scoring of tackle stats...

very interesting, thanks. it would take too long to compile a database of home/away tackles, but it would be interesting to see if some teams had big biases.

[Jon in Oakland]

By the way, does anyone know who the official scorer for NFL games work for? Are they home-town employees or NFL employees that move from city to city? I am wondering if some teams have official scorers that like to give out assists more than other teams. Steelers' defensive players had a ton of assisted tackles, many many more than Arizona. It may be warranted...but if the official scorer is a hometown guy, then maybe the Steelers have a guy that is willing to award their defensive players a bit more, especially given that the Steelers are known as a good defensive team.

This sheds some light on the subject:

http://www.dallasnews.com/s/dws/nwsltr/sports/fromthe50/stories/080608dnspoinsidethenfl.141e71c8.html

[Prop Man]

Thanks Jon. That's ain interesting article.

Willis was credited with 174 tackles by NFL stat crews in 2007. Upon further review, the San Francisco coaches gave him credit for 52 more tackles, bumping his "official" count to 226.

NFL.com lists Willis with 174 tackles in 2007. So it looks like NFL.com (which is what the sportsbooks go by) did not change their numbers. I'm not sure where the writer of the article is getting the number of 226 since it is different than NFL.com. Is there another source that is official and released by the NFL?

[deadball]

Better defenses get more three and outs, allow a lower completion percentage
and generally spend less time on the field than their offense does. The Palms
was the only place I saw a prop of Pitt total tackles vs Ariz total tackles and
Ariz has been bet up to -155 last I saw. Other props like T.O.P. and number of
offensive plays are ones where Pittsburgh is the obvious favorite and that means
more opportunities for tackles for the Cards. Willie Parker alone is projected to
have as many carries as all the Cards rushers combined.

Cards I bet over this past week were Chick 0keafor OV 3.5 -125 and -135, Adrian Wilson OV 4.5 -160 and Gerald Hayes OV 4.5 -140. I really don't have any Pitt players
that I bet Under though. Not sure if that is good or bad.

[TJMAXX]

This sheds some light on the subject:

http://www.dallasnews.com/s/dws/nwsltr/sports/fromthe50/stories/080608dnspoinsidethenfl.141e71c8.html

Yeah, I found out that tackle stats were bullshit, but it cost me a couple of dimes... I guess I should have looked more closely at the teams total breakdown...

[Justin1820]

Prop man, go back through the past few years and look at the assisted tackle list per season. There are certain teams near the top annually.

Pats, Bills, Jets, and 1-2 other teams I cannot recall.

Pats were up there every year and they were not bad. I'd guess it's another Belichick thing to pad his defensive players stats so he can use them as trade bait. Very smart, imo.

[Prop Man]

Thanks for the tip. Looking at just last week's boxscores ... the NE/BAL game saw 51 assisted tackles by the two teams combined. The other three games had 42, 19 and 12 respectively. It doesn't seem like it is as much a Patriots thing as it is a Foxboro thing.

[groovinmahoovin]

I guess this is as good a place to ask as any--where's a good source to verify whether a defensive player who didn't get into the box score played or not? Someone asked me where to find that because he had one player over some number of tackles and assists at one book and under at another, the player had 0 and the over was graded a push and the under a loser. A quick check of NFL.com didn't help.

[mikevegas]

I guess this is as good a place to ask as any--where's a good source to verify whether a defensive player who didn't get into the box score played or not? Someone asked me where to find that because he had one player over some number of tackles and assists at one book and under at another, the player had 0 and the over was graded a push and the under a loser. A quick check of NFL.com didn't help.

Down load and read the game book found in the NFL.com box score

[Jon in Oakland]

I guess this is as good a place to ask as any--where's a good source to verify whether a defensive player who didn't get into the box score played or not? Someone asked me where to find that because he had one player over some number of tackles and assists at one book and under at another, the player had 0 and the over was graded a push and the under a loser. A quick check of NFL.com didn't help.

Which player?

[Prop Man]

Was it Dawan Landry?

BTW, I don't know the answer, I don't think the books really know either.

[groovinmahoovin]

Yeah, it was Landry, and I'll pass along that game book thing, thanks. I didn't watch the game but my friend was certain he saw Landry in the game, so I (only in half jest) suggested he DVR the replay or highlights from NFL On Demand and show the book a clip of Landry in the game.

I've had props before on offensive players under that didn't appear in the box score where I was able to show "pass intended for" or whatever in the play by play, but I don't recall ever having bet on a defensive player that failed to make a tackle. I don't bet a ton of NFL props though so I wasn't sure where to check.

[Prop Man]

The Gamebook does have Landry in as a starter. Don't know if that well help especially since it is a PDF and some books may claim they can't open it.

[Justin1820]

Thanks for the tip. Looking at just last week's boxscores ... the NE/BAL game saw 51 assisted tackles by the two teams combined. The other three games had 42, 19 and 12 respectively. It doesn't seem like it is as much a Patriots thing as it is a Foxboro thing.

Yes, well doesn't the home team provide the official scorer for the game?