Martingale Idiocy

[kimlee]

Perennial idiot Flamingo Kid is polluting other forums with a post titled "The Key to Sportsbetting, Have a Million Dollar Bankroll." He advocates betting $55 at -110, and doubling up. He literally couldn't calculate how many consecutive losses would ruin the bankroll.

Aside from the martingale fallacy, this is f*cked up on other levels. Why is a low-rolling innumerate loser giving out keys to betting? Why would a millionaire bother to bet $55? It's just such a stupid fantasy to think that money can make you smart. It is like thinking that sexual relations with Angeline Jolie will make you look like Brad Pitt. I guess stupid people have stupid fanatasies.

Sorry to vent, but this stupidity competes with threads where posters couldn't make change.

[Jeff Jones]

So Kimlee, what should Flamingo KId be doing in order to meet the Kimlee Good Housekeeping rules of gambling?

After a major blasting, that's always the part that gets left out.

[PerpetualCzech]

When I first saw this thread title I thought it was going to be about this thread (http://www.sportsforumworld.com/showthread.php?t=37).

That should be enough to push kimlee over the edge.

[kgbted21]

When I first saw this thread title I thought it was going to be about this thread (http://www.sportsforumworld.com/showthread.php?t=37).

That should be enough to push kimlee over the edge.

Wow, I'm gonna have to get my sharpness meter recalibrated. I always thought members was sharp. I have mostly seen a few picks from members based upon supposed inside info.

[trixtrix]

are you really a college professor kim lee?

not that i disagree w/ your sentiments, but i certainly hope you don't approach your naive students w/ the same vein of hostility..

[kimlee]

don't approach your naive students w/ the same vein of hostility.

The level of thought displayed on some forums would flunk kindergarten. One active poster flunked eleventh grade three times. He asked forum members for emotional support for his GED exam. Then he got drunk, overslept the exam, and assaulted his angry wife.

Funny Exam Answers (http://roflcaek.com/funny-exam-answers/)

Here are some true stories:

Applicant forges transcripts and falsely claims to be a member of U.S. Olympic team. Ater admission he blames bad performance on stress from the death of his twin sister. But he never had a sister.

Student doesn't attend class and flunks exams. The next year he is too embarrassed to attend with younger students ... and flunks again.

Students raise money to pay salaries of summer nonprofit jobs. Some of these "jobs" involve telemarket fundraising for their employers. In other words they raise subsidies for raising money for others. Their financial statement shows "sources of funds" differs from "uses of funds" (after they have all taken an accounting course).

Students have project course to form stock fund. When asked how much money is needed for appropriate diversification, their entire "analysis" is that anything less than $1 million would be an insult.

Students have project course to form bond fund. Ultimately their program is basically a random number generator that depends on the order of data entered.

Students sign up for section with 25% religious holidays they cannot attend.

Over objections of a professor, students on admissions committee at elite institution recommend admitting affirmative-action applicant with lowest decile test scores. Applicant gets admitted and flunks everything.

Student plagiarizes article and brags to classmates at bar. They inform him the article was required reading. So he runs back to campus with a coathanger to retrieve his assignment from under an office door.

[PerpetualCzech]

Wow, I'm gonna have to get my sharpness meter recalibrated. I always thought members was sharp. I have mostly seen a few picks from members based upon supposed inside info.

Not sure what was more surprising to me, the post itself or the fact that no one called him out on it.

[trixtrix]

okay scratch that, you do approach your students w/ the same air of hostility

[Rudy1957]

Not sure what was more surprising to me, the post itself or the fact that no one called him out on it.

I think you'll see that Mr. Smith and I gave him gentle swats, and tribecalledjeff got a little more explicit later on. No point in bringing out the 2x4 after he had just gone to all the work of setting up the BC heir. It didn't persist.

[PerpetualCzech]

No point in bringing out the 2x4 after he had just gone to all the work of setting up the BC heir.

I thought that was even more reason to point it out, not less. Members is no Flamingo Kid, whom you can just laugh off. Dozens of posters think he is sharp and follow his every word. IMO that makes this advice he's trying to give out all the more noteworthy and controversial.

[kimlee]

the same air of hostility

No doubt there is some hostility. But isn't a little bit justified in some of these cases? Maybe I don't have the skill or time to describe all the details, but many strike me as comical. Also, these students did not generally face bad consequences. If they didn't get good grades then they usually got extensions and opportunities to do the work again.

Here are a few more:

Student requests independent study for course that is already scheduled in another division on campus.

Students regularly request independent study or supervision in external areas. And these students are not necessarily enrolled at my school or any school.

One guy attended class and joined group projects but was not enrolled because he had been kicked out two years earlier. The theme is that these people not only absorb resources, but also have a negative effect on real students.

Think about it. How would you respond if Jeff Jones e-mailed you to be his handicapping mentor? Or if Jafar asked you to certify his recent Mormon missionary outreach project in Vegas so he can graduate from BYU?

[WarDekar]

One guy attended class and joined group projects but was not enrolled because he had been kicked out two years earlier. The theme is that these people not only absorb resources, but also have a negative effect on real students.

I've often wondered what ever prevented me (or anyone) from just showing up to lectures and classes- pretty much all my CS courses were 100+ students, and there's very little chance a TA or professor would've known you weren't in the class if you were there or asked questions or went to office hours. Would you be turning in assignments and getting graded feedback? Maybe not, but you're still consuming resources and getting the important part of the free education (well, I guess the important part is the diploma). I could envision a scenario where one could even join projects.

Would it work in small 15 person classes? Probably not, but those are usually the classes that are worthless anyway (I'm talking undergrad).

On a related note, I know my school and most major probably post lecture notes for most their classes online, all the coursework, etc. MIT even open-sourced their entire course catalog, which I think is pretty awesome.

[TJMAXX]

I thought that was even more reason to point it out, not less. Members is no Flamingo Kid, whom you can just laugh off. Dozens of posters think he is sharp and follow his every word. IMO that makes this advice he's trying to give out all the more noteworthy and controversial.

Sharpness can also be access to premium information which is not yet in the public domain... I had an early tip (off twitter) on some breaking news about a week ago, and despite it being a rather small market, that tip was easily worth 3-5k...

[PerpetualCzech]

Sharpness can also be access to premium information which is not yet in the public domain

No argument there. Members is certainly the king of the message board world when it comes to that category.

[trixtrix]

No doubt there is some hostility. But isn't a little bit justified in some of these cases? Maybe I don't have the skill or time to describe all the details, but many strike me as comical. Also, these students did not generally face bad consequences. If they didn't get good grades then they usually got extensions and opportunities to do the work again.

Here are a few more:

Student requests independent study for course that is already scheduled in another division on campus.

Students regularly request independent study or supervision in external areas. And these students are not necessarily enrolled at my school or any school.

One guy attended class and joined group projects but was not enrolled because he had been kicked out two years earlier. The theme is that these people not only absorb resources, but also have a negative effect on real students.

Think about it. How would you respond if Jeff Jones e-mailed you to be his handicapping mentor? Or if Jafar asked you to certify his recent Mormon missionary outreach project in Vegas so he can graduate from BYU?

my main concern is that your job description includes learning development, education, and aid to young men who are dependent on you to prepare them for adult life. when you come in w/ this type of opinion from the beginning, it can cause a natural bias in rest of your work.

i.e: instead of trying to see the best side of the students you're working with, you always seem focus on the worst ones..

[kimlee]

your job includes ... aid to young men.

You must think I work at a military school or YMCA bathhouse. I have not yet taught this year, and won't be teaching undergrads (sorry WarDekar). Past students include women and 50-year old men.

I chose the worst examples because you imagined my scorn for Flamingo Kid reflects my attitude toward students. It is hard to find comparable degenerates, but the forged transcript "Olympic" twin comes close.

Let me elaborate. Flamingo Kid and others have 10K+ clueless posts on multiple message boards. This gives the impression they are active successful bettors. It is clear to me they can't win. So how can we reconcile this?

#1) They don't bet nearly as often as they post,
#2) They bet really low,
#3) They have an external source of funds.

Flamingo Kid wrote the key to success is millionaires betting $50, suggesting that is his typical stake. So he loses $2.50 per bet (20-cent line). If he averages one bet per day then he loses a tolerable $912.50 per year. But he posts around ten times per day, or once per $5 bet. The forums would be much different if people could only post once per $100 or once per $1,000 bet.

[WarDekar]

my main concern is that your job description includes learning development, education, and aid to young men who are dependent on you to prepare them for adult life. when you come in w/ this type of opinion from the beginning, it can cause a natural bias in rest of your work.

i.e: instead of trying to see the best side of the students you're working with, you always seem focus on the worst ones..

Kimlee beat me to it, but his job doesn't consist of any of that- it consists of research and dealing with grad students, I'm sure.

[ahearnb]

Kimlee beat me to it, but his job doesn't consist of any of that- it consists of research and dealing with grad students, I'm sure.
Yes, he's much too 'important' to be dealing with silly undergrads.

[Craps Master]

#1) They don't bet nearly as often as they post,
#2) They bet really low,
#3) They have an external source of funds.

It's interesting to note that these all apply to you as well.

[WarDekar]

#3 certainly applies, but I'm not sure how you could deduce #1 or #2.

I have no idea how high he bets, but I would almost certainly think he bets way more than posts.

[kimlee]

he's much too 'important' to be dealing with silly undergrads.

It's a scheduling issue. Trixtrix just needs awareness of research, administration, and graduate components of higher education.

Education is an interesting example of asymmetric information. As Wardekar notes, in principle you could attend large lectures for free, or get the information off the internet. Harvard's math Ph.D. website actually says an aspiring professional mathematician merely needs a good library, implying their courses and faculty are superfluous.

Students don't know what their teachers know, and don't usually know what they need to learn. So there is a large amount of trust involved. Administrators exploit this by branding the education as "Harvard" or somesuch. The customers don't really know the difference and pay a premium for the branded product. The stereotype is that famous research universities recruit expensive faculty with low teaching loads, and then use graduate assistants to teach undergrads. Ironically grad students often relate well to undergrads and teach effectively. Also, there is a halo effect. The smart professors get the smart assistants, who teach smart students. And you would rather be in a class of motivated Harvard students than commuter students with G.E.D.'s. If you don't like this then you can always choose an expensive four-year college like Harvey Mudd.

Wardekar's point about free education also applies to exercise. I would like to get in shape. So I sign up for an introductory track class taught by a famous Division I coach. When I arrive, an assistant is yelling at a bunch of fatso's like me to run laps. Then I realize the coach isn't adding much value - my fitness depends on my inner motivation. So I go home and eat Cheetoh's. But I no longer blame my fat on lack of elite coaching. And I no longer blame my stupidy on lack of Harvard pedigree.

[TJMAXX]

here we have an opportunity to delve into the mind of the great kimlee and possibly find out his true vocation but he rattles off on wardekar's wasted education and bullshits about free resources... wtf-- inquiring minds want to know!

[Jeff Jones]

The Martingale stategy is a fabulous gambling strategy...until the time it doesn't work.

Kinda like other gambling strategies.

[kimlee]

A self-proclaimed "astonishing" handicapper bragged about his 31-0 record at EOG. The problem is he bets huge favorites, e.g., -300. Then if he loses he bets a martingale progression for "Game B" and "Game C". So really isn't a perfect record.

He lasted only three days with a hypothetical $10K bankroll trying to win $25 per day. Let me illustrate the math with -400 bets.

Bet A: $100 to win $25 (lose),
Bet B: $500 to win $125 (lose),
Bet C: $2500 to win $625 (lose).

Now there isn't enough bankroll to get even at -400.

[PerpetualCzech]

A self-proclaimed "astonishing" handicapper bragged about his 31-0 record at EOG. The problem is he bets huge favorites, e.g., -300. Then if he loses he bets a martingale progression for "Game B" and "Game C". So really isn't a perfect record.

Don't tell me Ned is back ...

[kimlee]

Don't tell me Ned is back ...

Ned recommended doubling up on various baseball teams, claiming an 80-0 record. Then ComptrBob inconveniently noted that the record was not perfect, and that Ned's recommended teams had played each other. So Ned started modifying the system.

AstonishingTed appears to be Ned's unlucky inbred cousin. Ted showed an unfamiliarity with lines. In particular he wrote that he "thought" there was enough money to continue his progression. Obviously he hadn't had this verified by a bookie. I recall some LVASports poster similarly recommended bridgejumpers until his bankroll got wiped out.

Ned, Ted, inbred.