Clint Westwood's Soccer picks - 2008 - 2009

[Clint Westwood]

24/09/09 F.A. Cup

PORTSMOUTH -0.5 v Swansea (2.17, +117 Pinnacle)

This line is continuing to rise but I don't see how it can keep going much further in Swansea's direction. It is almost all down to the probable absence of James in goal for Portsmouth but with them taking the F.A. Cup seriously I'll take my chances with them at +odds.

Man Utd v TOTTENHAM +1.5 (1.9, -110 Pinnacle)

This line would be worth taking even if United were close to being full-strength, imho. As things stand today it's a no-brainer as far as I'm concerned.

[Clint Westwood]

1 unit on Blackburn
1.1 unit on Tottenham

===============================================

I have no prior picks on here, therefore no YTD as yet.

In case anyone is interested, my current YTD at SSB is

43 - 31 - 15; +9.4 units

Unweighted, all at widely available lines, risking 1 unit at +odds, to win 1 unit at - odds

[Clint Westwood]

SUNDERLAND -0.25 v Fulham (-102) 1.02 unit
Everton v ARSENAL -0.25 (+115) 1 unit
BLACKBURN -0.5 v Bolton (-101) 1.01 unit

==================================================

[Jon in Oakland]

Clint, feel free to also post these in The Beautiful Game Room. Especially when you provide a write up. We certainly don't want to prevent you from talking about specific plays and bets from within your forum. You could of course also keep a record in the other room using a different line than Pinny's if you care to.

[Clint Westwood]

24/09/09 F.A. Cup

PORTSMOUTH -0.5 v Swansea (2.17, +117 Pinnacle)

This line is continuing to rise but I don't see how it can keep going much further in Swansea's direction. It is almost all down to the probable absence of James in goal for Portsmouth but with them taking the F.A. Cup seriously I'll take my chances with them at +odds.

Man Utd v TOTTENHAM +1.5 (1.9, -110 Pinnacle)

This line would be worth taking even if United were close to being full-strength, imho. As things stand today it's a no-brainer as far as I'm concerned.

1-1; +0 units.

Portsmouth ended up closer to evens, while Tottenham went the other way, ending somewhere around +101 or so. The results were the opposite lol. I think both the moves were mainly down to the factors I mentiond (Portsmouth's and Man United's sides were stonger than initially expected).

[Clint Westwood]

28/01/09

Wigan v LIVERPOOL (-114)

===============================================

[Clint Westwood]

SUNDERLAND -0.25 v Fulham (-102) 1.02 unit
Everton v ARSENAL -0.25 (+115) 1 unit
BLACKBURN -0.5 v Bolton (-101) 1.01 unit

==================================================

Results: 1- 1.5 -0.5; -0.5 unit.

[Clint Westwood]

28/01/09

Wigan v LIVERPOOL (-114)

===============================================

Result: 0-1; -1.14 units.

[Clint Westwood]

Fulham v PORTSMOUTH +0.5 (1.87 / -115) to win 1 unit

Man Utd v EVERTON +1.25 (2.0 / +100) 1 unit

==================================================

[Clint Westwood]

Liverpool v CHELSEA +0.25 (1.82 / -122)

==================================================

[Clint Westwood]

Fulham v PORTSMOUTH +0.5 (1.87 / -115) to win 1 unit

Man Utd v EVERTON +1.25 (2.0 / +100) 1 unit

==================================================

0.5 - 1 - 0.5; -0.7 unit.

[Clint Westwood]

Liverpool v CHELSEA +0.25 (1.82 / -122)

==================================================

0-1; -1.2 units.

[Clint Westwood]

SUNDERLAND v Stoke (-121 /1.83)

=============================================

1.2 units to win 1 unit.

[Clint Westwood]

PORTSMOUTH +0.75 v Liverpool (-117/1.85)

=============================================

1.17 units to win 1 unit.

[Clint Westwood]

BLACKBURN 0AH v Aston Villa (+108 / 2.08)

================================================== ==

[Clint Westwood]

SUNDERLAND v Stoke (-121 /1.83)

1.2 units to win 1 unit [W]

PORTSMOUTH +0.75 v Liverpool (-117/1.85)

1.17 units to win 1 unit [HL]

BLACKBURN 0AH v Aston Villa (+108 / 2.08)

1 unit [L]

1-1.5-0.5; -1.6 units

[Clint Westwood]

21/02

Aston Villa v CHELSEA -0.25 (-106/1.94)

1.06 units to win 1 unit

Man Utd v BLACKBURN +1.5 (+109/2.15)

1 unit to win 1.15 units

22/02

Newcastle v EVERTON 0AH (-122/1.82)

1.22 units to win 1 unit

[Clint Westwood]

21/02

Aston Villa v CHELSEA -0.25 (-106/1.94)

1.06 units to win 1 unit W

Man Utd v BLACKBURN +1.5 (+109/2.15)

1 unit to win 1.15 units W

22/02

Newcastle v EVERTON 0AH (-122/1.82)

1.22 units to win 1 unit P

=============================================

Res: 2-0-1; +2.15 units.

[Clint Westwood]

28/02 & 01/03

Everton v WEST BROM +1 (+111/2.11)

West Ham v MAN CITY 0AH (+110/2.1)

================================================== =

[Clint Westwood]

28/02 & 01/03

Everton v WEST BROM +1 (+111/2.11) L

West Ham v MAN CITY 0AH (+110/2.1) L

================================================== =

Res: 0-2-0; -2 units.

I'll total everything up as per the site rules in due course - sorry it's not the correct format right now.

[Clint Westwood]

Man Utd v LIVERPOOL +0.5 (-104/1.96)

1.04 units to win 1 unit.

Middlesbrough v PORTSMOUTH +0.25 (+100/2.0)

1 unit to win 1 unit.

================================================== =

[Clint Westwood]

Aston Villa v TOTTENHAM +0.5 (-122/1.82)

==================================================

[Clint Westwood]

Tottenham v CHELSEA -0.5 (-109/1.92)

==========================================

[Clint Westwood]

BLACKBURN -0.5 v West Ham (-106/1.94)

1.06 u

[Clint Westwood]

Tottenham v CHELSEA L -1.09u
BLACKBURN v West Ham L -1.06u

[Clint Westwood]

ARSENAL -1 v Man City (+102)
Hull v PORTSMOUTH 0AH (+101)
Newcastle v CHELSEA -0.75 (-102)

EVERTON -0.75 v Wigan (+111)

================================================

I'm playing against over-rated Wigan even though it looks a sucker bet given Wigan's good record, especially in terms of conceding >1 goal against decent teams. Nonetheless they've lost good players and there is a little unrest in their team at the moment too.

I'm also playing against Newcastle and their latest messiah; I'll stick with Chelsea and the knowledge that Newcastle's weak midfield and poor defence won't match up very well against Chelsea in this game.

[Clint Westwood]

[QUOTE=Clint Westwood;3142]ARSENAL -1 v Man City (+102) w
Hull v PORTSMOUTH 0AH (+101) p
Newcastle v CHELSEA -0.75 (-102) w

EVERTON -0.75 v Wigan (+111) w

================================================

3-0-1; +3.13u

[Clint Westwood]

Liverpool v CHELSEA +0.25 (-102)

CHELSEA to advance to semi-final (+119)

================================================

As always, (unless noted otherwise), bets are to win 1 unit on favourites and stake 1 unit on underdogs.

[Clint Westwood]

[QUOTE=Clint Westwood;3279]Liverpool v CHELSEA +0.25 (-102)

CHELSEA to advance to semi-final (+109)

================================================

Sorry!

[Clint Westwood]

Liverpool v BLACKBURN +1.5 (-124)
Wigan v ARSENAL (-134)

Aston Villa v EVERTON +0.25 (+103)

=============================================

I thought Pinnacle were going to re-open with Blackburn at a shorter price than this, having seen the remainder of the market's opinion after their Champions League game tonight. -124 is certainly good enough value on Blackburn for me to play.

[Clint Westwood]

The line has moved hugely against me on this one but I've increased my bet on Arsenal.

In case anyone has been following the line movements on games I've bet this season, I've done worst with line moves that have been in my favour (like Blackburn today).

Arsenal -0.5 at -110 or better is a great bet imho.

Wigan v ARSENAL -0.5 (-109)

1.1 unit

[Clint Westwood]

Liverpool v BLACKBURN +1.5 (-124) L
Wigan v ARSENAL (-134) W
Wigan v ARSENAL -0.5 (-110) W

Aston Villa v EVERTON +0.25 (+103) HW

================================================

Res: 2.5 - 1 - 0.5; +1.28 units.

[Clint Westwood]

Chelsea v Liverpool o2.5 (+106)

============================================

Liverpool have no choice but to play an open, attacking game tonight. They have to score at least 3 goals and Chelsea minus John Terry and Bosingwa are definitely capable of conceding.

With the style of play Liverpool will be bringing, Chelsea's likelihood of scoring is also increased; o2.5 looks a decent bet at +odds here.

[The Chaperone]

Chelsea v Liverpool o2.5 (+106)

============================================

Liverpool have no choice but to play an open, attacking game tonight. They have to score at least 3 goals and Chelsea minus John Terry and Bosingwa are definitely capable of conceding.

With the style of play Liverpool will be bringing, Chelsea's likelihood of scoring is also increased; o2.5 looks a decent bet at +odds here.

LOL. Definitely looked like the right side...

[Clint Westwood]

[QUOTE=Clint Westwood;3623]Chelsea v Liverpool o2.5 (+106) W

============================================

1-0; +1.06 units.

[Clint Westwood]

Liverpool v CHELSEA +0.25 (-102) W

CHELSEA to advance to semi-final (+109) W

================================================

As always, (unless noted otherwise), bets are to win 1 unit on favourites and stake 1 unit on underdogs.

2-0; +2.09 units.

[Clint Westwood]

LOL. Definitely looked like the right side...

Ha - I was starting to think the game was fixed after seeing the first two Liverpool goals. With the first Chelsea goal at least it made it look like the o2.5 market was rigged lol!

I was very close to bridgejumping on Chelsea to qualify in addition to my initial bet but thankfully the line stayed just out of my reach - I was quite glad not to have done so for most of that farce of a game.

[Clint Westwood]

CHELSEA to advance to Final (+150)

============================================

Compared with the outright win markets this line looks playable/value to me. I would have considered it even without comparing as it is suggesting a gulf in class between Chelsea and Barcelona that isn't anything like as wide as this line is saying, imo.

It might be better to wait for game-time and play the two legs individually but I've played it now as it seems too one-sided in Barcelona's favour to me.

[Clint Westwood]

Middlesbrough v FULHAM +0.25 (+105)
SUNDERLAND v Hull (-109)

================================================== ==

I was hoping the line would move further out on Sunderland - it may yet still do so but I'm not so confident in waiting any longer so have played it now.

[Clint Westwood]

Middlesbrough v FULHAM +0.25 (+105) HW
SUNDERLAND v Hull (-109) W

================================================== ==

Res: 1.5 - 0 - 0.5; +1.52 units.

[Clint Westwood]

Man Utd v PORTSMOUTH +1.5 (-101)

================================================

Krancjar's injury won't help but even though Man Utd will rest most of their players for today's match, I'm still betting early on this match just in case.

[Clint Westwood]

Liverpool v ARSENAL +0.5 (-103)

Chelsea v Everton u2.5 (-112) Risk 1.5 units

=================================

A high volume of plays for the midweek games, even by my own standards!

Arsenal is a bit of a risk because I am not 100% sure if Wenger will commit to playing a strong side; there is no reason that he shouldn't, really, given that they have a game v Middlesbrough sandwiched in between this one and the CL match. I don't see them throwing in the towel against Liverpool and 0.5 is a great start to get for Arsenal away to any team.

Ps - I managed to cheat myself out of 2c on Portsmouth +1.5 -101; that line should have been +101 but I can afford it at the moment :)

[Clint Westwood]

Chelsea v Everton u2.5 (-101)

Risk 0.6 unit

=======================================

FU, market. I can't see any reason for this move; Everton +1.25 is tempting too, now.

[Clint Westwood]

[21 & 22/04 Results]

Liverpool v ARSENAL -0.5 (-103) W

Chelsea v Everton u2.5 (-112) Risk 1.5u W
Chelsea v Everton u2.5 (-101) Risk 0.6u W
Man Utd v PORTSMOUTH +1.5 (-101) L

4.14 units risked; +1.92 units


============================================

Finally caught up with my YTD on here up to now:

21 - 13 - 5; 42.66 units risked, +7.40 units.

[Clint Westwood]

Man Utd v Tottenham u2.5 (+100)

==========================================

Man Utd have their Champions League QF in the following midweek to this game. With Liverpool and Chelsea handing them the Premiership title as well it looks likely that United will not be going all out to win this game.

With United's scoring potential diminished it looks a good time to play u2.5 again.

[Clint Westwood]

BLACKBURN -0.5 v Wigan (-101)

===========================================

[Clint Westwood]

Man Utd v TOTTENHAM +1.25 (-117)
Man Utd v Tottenham u2.75 (-114) Risk 1 unit.

================================================== =

[Clint Westwood]

W L P OPEN Risked Return
22 15.5 5.5 1 46.84 +5.72 units

27/04 Prem

Newcastle v PORTSMOUTH +0.5 (+100)

=================================================

Going against the 'must win' situation for Newcastle; it's not like Portsmouth can take the night off in any case.

Other than having Owen and Viduka returning to fitness there's no reason Newcastle should be priced so short for this match.

[Clint Westwood]

Man Utd v ARSENAL +0.5 (+109)

=========================================

It looks like the Arsenal team came through okay today so I'll back them even though they will be minus Arshavin for the CL games this season.

[Clint Westwood]

W L P OPEN Risked Return
23 16.5 5.5 1 48.95 +5.63

Man City v BLACKBURN +0.5 (-109)

Man City v Blackburn u2.5 (+102)

==========================================

[Clint Westwood]

W L P OPEN Risked Return ROI
23 18.5 5.5 3 53.29 3.54 6.6%

--------------------------------------------------------

Sunderland v EVERTON 0AH (-103)

Sunderland v Everton u2.25 (-122)

================================================

[Clint Westwood]

Chelsea v Barcelona u2.5 (-110)

========================================

[Clint Westwood]

W L P OPEN Risked Return ROI
25.5 19.5 6 0 54.39 5.04 9.3%

[Clint Westwood]

Blackburn v PORTSMOUTH +0.5 (-115)

Arsenal v CHELSEA 0AH (+105)

============================================

[Clint Westwood]

Everton v TOTTENHAM +0.25 (+102)

==========================================

[Clint Westwood]

West Ham v Liverpool u2.5 (-107)

=============================================

[Clint Westwood]

W L P OPEN Risked Return ROI
27 21.5 6.5 0 58.6 4.4 7.5%

Man Utd v ARSENAL +0.75 (+107)

=============================================

I took an early shot with this - played +1 but this line is as good.

[Clint Westwood]

BOLTON -0.25 v Hull (-105)
Tottenham v MAN CITY +0.5 (-104)

=========================================

I've also bet West Brom +1.5 but that game is off the board at Pinnacle at present.

[Clint Westwood]

W L P OPEN Risked Return ROI
28 23 7 0 61.7 3.88 6.3%

===============================================

Robbed in the Tottenham-City game; fortunate to only lose half with Bolton.
I jogged bad overall.

[Clint Westwood]

West Brom v Liverpool u2.75 (+105)

===========================================

I never got the chance to post my excellent +1.5 WBA bet as Pinnacle took it off and came back with +1.25. Now they're at +1.

The u2.75 still looks a good bet though with the lack of motivation for Liverpool now. The open-top Liverpool celebration bus will have to be parked up in the garage for another year at least.

[Clint Westwood]

W 29 L23 P7 Risked 62.7 Return 4.9 ROI 7.9%

================================================

If West Brom can keep most of their team together they'll be a great bet to win The Championship next season. I'll be watching their transfer moves with interest over the summer.

[CoinFlipPicker]

If West Brom can keep most of their team together they'll be a great bet to win The Championship next season. I'll be watching their transfer moves with interest over the summer.

Should be interesting and I agree. I thought Reading would make an immediate "U-Turn" and they would have had they won a home game vs Birmingham on the season finale. They lost then had a hangover effect in their playoff series with Burnley and got sent home. The Manager resigned and many players are sent packing and now I think Reading might be down there for some time. Will be interesting to see if Sheffield United can win next week and come back up after what happened a few years ago in the whole Carlos Tevez fisaco. I think they beat Burnley and come back up but who knows for sure

[Clint Westwood]

Sunderland v CHELSEA -0.5 (-103)

Hull v Man Utd u2.5 (-101)

============================================

Risk 1.5 units on each

[Clint Westwood]

Liverpool v Tottenham u3 (-103)

============================================

[Clint Westwood]

CHELSEA to win Premier League (+240)

==========================================

There's certainly better than +240 Pinnacle around but RTP's rules are the rules.

There are rumours that Essien might look to move on over the summer, which would be bad news for this future but overall Chelsea have the strongest squad overall. I don't think Man United will be able to address all of their problems in time and I am not convinced that Liverpool, struggling with funds at present, will improve enough to win the league.

Risk 1 unit.

[Clint Westwood]

W 31 L 24.5 P 6.5 OPEN 1 Risked 66.73 Return 6.35 ROI 9.5%



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#1021 STOKE -0.5 v Burnley (-101)

=================================================

I've already played enough on this game. There's at least one more game I'll definitely be playing and a further one that I'm hoping for some more line movement on to make it worth betting.

[Clint Westwood]

BLACKBURN +0.25 v Man City (+102)

TOTTENHAM +0.25 v Liverpool (-112)

=============================================

I thought there would be an over-reaction on City's side given their unusual transfer behaviour but it hasn't happened.

Tottenham's price will be excellent value if Gerrard doesn't play for Liverpool. If he does - it's still good :)

[Clint Westwood]

EVERTON > Aston Villa (-137)

=========================================

There's quite a bit better than this price available elsewhere but I did write that I would consider this bet okay down to 1.72 so it still qualifies - just.

I hoped Pinnacle would offer more future options than they posted up, and everything else I've bet is either not there or the price has moved so far that they are unbackable at the current lines now.

One future that is still around, but at Coral, is FULHAM > West Ham at +100. Obviously it can't count in my record on here but it is a very good price if anyone has access to Euro books etc.

Oh, and Skybet were still lining Tottenham +0.25 v Liverpool at +100 last night. It hasn't been at that price for ages so I added to my bet there.

[Clint Westwood]

#905 Tottenham v Liverpool u2.5 goals (-110)

Risk 1.5 units.

=========================================

Horrible line movement on the side bet - Gerrard and Carragher both playing.

[Clint Westwood]

W 33 L 26.5 P 6.5 OPEN 2 Risked 75.89 Return 5.85 ROI 7.7%

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Hull v TOTTENHAM -0.5 (+101)

============================================

[Clint Westwood]

Sunderland v CHELSEA (-160)

=============================================

Chelsea's price has come into my range for playing today. I can't see any reason for it moving like it has, other than an over-reaction to Chelsea's somewhat laboured victory over Hull in their opening match.

Sunderland are without Malbranque tonight - that's a big loss and these two factors are enough to persuade me to play this one.

1.6 units to win 1 unit.

[Skinny Dynamite]

Good work Clint, took them a while but they got home comfortably in the end.
Odious Chelsea :-)

[CoinFlipPicker]

This weekend Chelsea will get all they can handle at Fulham and if the Cottagers win it won't surprise me at all. Last season Fulham beat Man U and Arsenal at home and drew with Chelsea and should have won that game, too. I am pretty sure I will be able to get Fulahm +500 or better and if so I can't pass that up

[Clint Westwood]

Birmingham v PORTSMOUTH +0.5 (-116)

1.16u

=========================================

Sorry for the late add - not much line movement on this - decided to wait, but to no avail.

[Clint Westwood]

Good work Clint, took them a while but they got home comfortably in the end.
Magnificent Chelsea :-)

Hi Skinny.

I fixed your unintentional slip in your message for you.

:)

I'm actually an Everton (cough) supporter but I have a lot invested in the good fortunes of Chelsea for this season.

I increased my bet on them yesterday too, around HT. Betfair had 3.7 available on them and I was happy to take that price at that stage.

Two pretty much fluke goals conceded in two successive games, and they've come through with maximum points. Strength of opponent notwithstanding I think they've started out really well.

Still pales in comparison with cashing 200-1 bets though. More than made up for the loss of the previous week, fading Mr Woods :)

[Clint Westwood]

W L P OPEN Risked Return ROI
35 27.5 6.5 2 77.49 6.7 8.6%

[CoinFlipPicker]

To all those today who had Burnley around +1100

You are Da Man!

Biggest Upset of the season and it will stay that way until the season ends in May

[Clint Westwood]

#305 Birmingham v STOKE +0.25 (-102)

1.02u

#314 Sunderland v BLACKBURN +0.5 (-124)

1.86u

===============================================

[Clint Westwood]

Liverpool v ASTON VILLA +1.5 (-114)

=============================================

[Skinny Dynamite]

Gd work CW again...
Always pleasing to see 'pool drop pts, esp at Anfield...

[Clint Westwood]

Hehehe!

Better not let the Groovinmahoovin hear you talking like this, though; with his old enemy James Manos vanquished he might be after a new opponent now.

I found some old picks and writeups of yours over on SSB regarding English football - I have no idea how you're able to track so many sports so well. Kudos, sir!

Did you see anything of that Blackburn (v Sunderland) game by the way? They'll be good to follow for a few weeks now as (I'm hoping) they will be under-valued given their 0-0-2 start but they look much better than that to me. They could easily be unbeaten themselves instead after their opening two games.

I mention this because there was no such over-reaction to the Burnley-Everton game at all, what with Everton setting off around the same price as their early-season visits to last season's promoted sides.........

[Clint Westwood]

Gillingham v BLACKBURN (-123)

====================================

After all that I wrote in a response to Prop Man on the General Forum, here I am, taking the experimental Premier team :)

Caveat Emptor, but I've no problem in playing this really. I don't think the line adequately reflects the gulf in class between the two teams, even if Blackburn does rest half the team (which is not guaranteed anyway at this stage).

Blackburn are a good type of team to side with in this spot because there are no fancy players or megastars in their team any more really; Allardyce has control of them fully now and they are being formed into his Bolton model, which should hold up against Gill.

[Skinny Dynamite]

Kudos again, good read.
Haven't watched much of the EPL to date alas.
Being an Arsenal fan of 35 years I follow it closely, it's still my chief sporting passion, but there's not enough hours in the day to watch the games I'd like to.

[Clint Westwood]

Leyton Orient v STOKE (+120)

=================================

Maybe a mistake but I'm dipping in the Carling Cup bin once more. Similar reasons to my play yesterday although Stoke most likely will be featuring less regulars than Blackburn did, to be fair.

However, Leyton Orient aren't a particularly strong team and I think it's generous to get the Premiership team with +odds here.

[Clint Westwood]

Tip: Pay no attention to Sporting Life and their made-up squad news. The Stoke team that played today is nothing like the squad listing that they ran.

Wankers.

Updated record:

W L P O
37.5 29.5 7 2

Risked: 83.64; +6.34 units; +7.6% ROI

[Clint Westwood]

#404 BLACKBURN -0.25 v West Ham (-112)
1.12u

#410 STOKE -0.25 v Sunderland (+112)
1.5u

#420 Man Utd v ARSENAL +0.25 (+104)
1.0u

==============================================

[Skinny Dynamite]

#420 Man Utd v ARSENAL +0.25 (+104)
1.0u

==============================================

Now there's a wager I like.
Me and my son will be getting up at 4am to watch this one...

[Clint Westwood]

29/08 Add

Chelsea v Burnley u3.0 (+100)

1.5u

==============================================

This is my biggest Premiership betting weekend in some time; the widely-available lines are unusually good imo.

[Clint Westwood]

Tottenham v BIRMINGHAM +1.25 (+106)

1u

Tottenham v Birmingham <2.75 (-114)

1.14u

============================================

[Clint Westwood]

#304 EVERTON v Wigan (-128)
#308 Aston Villa v FULHAM +0.75 (-120)

======================================

I also have Portsmouth +1 -112 but that's moved too far to post here.

[Clint Westwood]

#1204 BLACKBURN -0.5 v Wolves (-113)

1.7u

#1208 Man City v ARSENAL 0AH (-114)

1.57u

#1223 Tottenham v MAN UTD -0.25 (+101)

1u

============================================

Blackburn are due. Due, I tell you! They've been quite impressive in everything other than actually scoring a goal but their offence is improving with every game.

Man City are over-rated at the moment imo. They are lucky to be 3-0-0 and this is a clear step up in class of opponent for them. I don't think enough has changed to see Arsenal priced at pk (admittedly favoured) for this season at this stage.

Tottenham - another over-achieving team and now without Modric as well as a shaky defence. Their style of play is suitable for Man Utd to play against, and while I don't think Man Utd are anything like the force of recent years they are good enough to go to most places and get a result. Plus odds at -0.25 is okay for me.

[Clint Westwood]

#1502 Liverpool v Burnley u3 (+105)

1 unit.

=====================================

This has moved plenty so I'm on it now.

Regarding my previous bets, my wager on Arsenal was supposed to be 1.7u. I originally wrote '1.5u' but didn't specify 'risk' or 'to win'. I obviously didn't delete the .5 part as I intended to on that line.

In light of the bizarre amount staked, seeing as I was not making any fancy Kelly adjustments or anything, if no-one objects I'll re-classify that bet as 1.7u risked. If that isn't acceptable I'll leave it at 1.57u risked.

[Clint Westwood]

42 - 34.5 - 9.5; +5.46 units
---------------------------------------------------

#1052 Birmingham v Aston Villa u2.25 (-108)

========================================

[Clint Westwood]

Fulham v EVERTON 0AH (-103)

=======================================

There's a significant chance that Schwarzer won't play for Fulham. That turns this line for me from just about bettable into a decent opportunity. Looking at the two squads and likely starting XI's I don't really have a problem taking Everton here; Everton are looking much better of late while Fulham seem to be regressing somewhat.

The matchups across the field look definitely in Everton's favour and with the upgrade in squad depth they have I've taken a shot at this match.

[Clint Westwood]

#1105 Aston Villa v PORTSMOUTH +1.25 (-108)
1.08u

#1111 Burnley v SUNDERLAND 0AH (-121)
1.21u


#1126 Wolves v FULHAM 0AH (+105)
1.5u
Continuing my zag-zig on Fulham here.

===========================================

[Clint Westwood]

#1208 Everton v BLACKBURN +0.75 (-116)

1.16u

#1208 Everton v Blackburn u2.5 (-118)

1.18u

===========================================

[Clint Westwood]

W43 L40.5 P9.5 OPEN 2 RISKED 106.14 RETURN -0.7 ROI -0.7%

-------------------------------------------------------------

SUNDERLAND v Wolves (-128)

1.92 units to win 1.5 units

==============================================

[Clint Westwood]

#1223 Fulham v ARSENAL -1 (+103)

1 unit.

====================================

[Clint Westwood]

Stoke v Man Utd u2.5 (-107)

1.07u

========================================

Lost a little value waiting on this one. I also wanted to play Stoke +1.25 but that line has moved too much. I hoped Man United would attract a lot of late money but it hasn't happened.

[Clint Westwood]

Man City v WEST HAM +1.25 (-136)

1.36u
========================================

Bad line move judgement by me; I've actually played this at a far better price but I stupidly decided afterwards that I could've waited and got a better line. This really is at the limit of playability so I'm only really posting it as far as my Pinnacle betting record is concerned.

[Clint Westwood]

W 45 L 41.5 P 10.5 OPEN 2 RISKED 111.82 RETURN 0.44 ROI 0.4%

--------------------------------------------------------

#1208 Wolves v PORTSMOUTH +0.25 (+111)

2 units.

#1228 ASTON VILLA 0AH v Man City (-101)

1.01 units.

===========================================

[Clint Westwood]

#1211 Man Utd v Sunderland u3 (-108)

1.08 units.

==========================================

[Clint Westwood]

#1210 CHELSEA -0.5 v Liverpool (+109)

1 unit.

====================================

I'm only playing this because I think Cech's absence - while a big loss - is under-rated compared with Liverpool's form for the season up to now. They've hammered the lesser teams but have really struggled against decent teams.

This is mostly subjective - the numbers I have suggest no play on this game but I think there's some scope for winding in Chelsea's comparative rating because of the above.

[Clint Westwood]

#1204 WIGAN +0.5 v Man City (+100)

1 unit.

==========================================

I already played this a while ago at +0.75 -101; I'm posting it now at this considerably worse price because of City's team news - I think the line is under-compensated for their missing players.

[Clint Westwood]

#1202 Wolves v ASTON VILLA -0.25 (-110)

1.1u

#1205 Birmingham v SUNDERLAND 0AH (-118)

1.18u

#1214 Tottenham v STOKE +1 (+120)

1 u

=============================================

I considered upping my stake on Stoke +1 but I'm not sure I've adjusted enough to compensate for Huth's absence. Defoe not playing for Spurs, though, is definitely a big plus for this bet.

Aston Villa have looked better than I thought they be this season. Wolves look better now Doyle is hitting some form but overall I like the matchups in this game in Villa's favour.

[Clint Westwood]

#1202 Bolton v EVERTON 0AH (+106)

1u

==================================

I was waiting on team news before deciding whether to play this. Looking at the likely lineups I have no problem in playing Everton at this price after accounting for their missing players.

The short break from European travel midweek is the biggest negative but Everton will be keen to play much better after that embarrassment.

[Clint Westwood]

#1325 SUNDERLAND -0.5 v West Ham (+103)

1u

#1228 BIRMINGHAM +0.5 v Man City (+107)

1u

======================================
=========================================

[Clint Westwood]

#1505 Blackburn v PORTSMOUTH +0.5 (-121)

1.8u

#1511 Tottenham v SUNDERLAND +1 (-101)

1.01u

---------------------------------------

#1502 Hull v STOKE pk (-119)

1.19u

#1505 West Ham v EVERTON pk (+113)

1.5u

=================================

[Clint Westwood]

#1502 Hull v STOKE -0.5 (-123)

Adding another 0.5u

#1510 CHELSEA v Man Utd (+100)

=======================================

[Clint Westwood]

#1501 LIVERPOOL v Man City (-104)
1.04u
#1520 Man Utd v EVERTON +1.25 (-111)
1.11u

#1523 Bolton v BLACKBURN +0.25 (-106)
1.6U
#1529 Stoke v PORTSMOUTH +0.5 (-129)
1.29u

==================================

[Clint Westwood]

Risked 136.2 Return -1.5 ROI -1.1%

#1605 Fulham v BOLTON +0.5 (+103)
1u
#1614 West Ham v BURNLEY +0.5 (+112)
1u
#1620 Aston Villa v TOTTENHAM 0ah (+120)
1u

#1208 Arsenal v CHELSEA 0ah (-103)

======================================

Missed the best of Chelsea's line through late posting but it's still okay to play at - Arsenal seem over-priced given the loss of Van Persie. Chelsea have missing players too but even adjusting for worst case (assuming Lampard misses) this line is passable.

Considered Sunderland too - actually, I have bet them - but their current price is too short.

[Clint Westwood]

Man City v ARSENAL +0.5 (-110)
1.1u

Blackburn v CHELSEA -1 (+100)

======================================

[Clint Westwood]

Horrible scenes last night!

Arsenal was down to my over-valuing their reserve players; Chelsea was a bad bet but it was too late to correct my error. Having seen the first half debacle of the Arsenal game and the yellow cards hanging over their defenders I considered buying out of the bet by playing back on City but I was too lazy to do anything about it. Terrible, really. Even then, though, it took two pretty unbelievable finishes to knock Arsenal out; they had obviously given up by the time the third goal was scored.

Oh well...

BLACKBURN +0.75 v Liverpool (-106)
risk 2u

Fulham v SUNDERLAND +0.25 (+109)
risk 1.5u

========================================

[Clint Westwood]

EVERTON +0.25 v Tottenham (-117)

===================================

This line is too good to pass on, even allowing for Everton's injuries.

[Prop Man]

nice one! I actually watched it, fun match to see!

[Skinny Dynamite]

A rare footballing excursion for me, excuse the rude post in yer thread mate :-)

CL

Besitkas +150 o CSKA (1)
Wolfsburg +102 o Man U (1)
Marseille +222 o Real (1)

GL

[Skinny Dynamite]

(slinks back out again...) :-)

[Clint Westwood]

(slinks back out again...) :-)

This thread is cursed, and all who sail in her. Mind if I come and burn up some of your golf units from your thread?

:)

[Clint Westwood]

nice one! I actually watched it, fun match to see!

Not so fun for an Everton fan. Until the final whistle, that was :)

It was nice to have some good fortune from the penalty spot for a change actually (Everton and myself). Hopefully the second half will convince Everton to play more offensively in future, especially at home, and especially especially versus poor defensive teams like Tottenham.

[Clint Westwood]

BIRMINGHAM -0.25 v West Ham (-116)
Chelsea v EVERTON +1.75 (-101)
Man Utd v ASTON VILLA +1 (+103)

Skinny Dynamite Special:

LIVERPOOL v Arsenal (+122)

=========================================

[Clint Westwood]

If I could, I'd take back the Everton bet; I made an error backing them - I don't think I've adjusted down enough for their troubles in defence. I think it's barely above breakeven in worth now. If by some miracle the line moves in my favour I'll be looking to play back on it, barring good news on the personnel front.

[Clint Westwood]

BOLTON +0.5 v Man City (+113)

===================================

[Clint Westwood]

Man Utd v ASTON VILLA +1.25 (-104)

======================================

[Clint Westwood]

15/12

Birmingham v BLACKBURN +0.25 (-104)

2.08u

16/12

Burnley v ARSENAL -1 (-123)
LIVERPOOL -1.5 v Wigan (-105)
TOTTENHAM -0.25 v Man City (-105)

All to win 1u

=================================

[Clint Westwood]

FULHAM +1 v Man Utd (-120)
Man City v SUNDERLAND +1 (-103)

===============================

[Clint Westwood]

Aston Villa v STOKE +1.25 (-113)

=================================

[Clint Westwood]

BLACKBURN +0.25 v Tottenham (+118)

=================================

Not sure why the late line move has occurred - team news is nothing extraordinry.

Into the mix it goes!

[Clint Westwood]

EVERTON v Birmingham (-103)

to win 1.5u

===================================

[Clint Westwood]

Man City v STOKE +1 (+109)
Sunderland v EVERTON +0.25 (-122)

========================================

[Clint Westwood]

Wigan v BLACKBURN pk (+120)

======================================

[Clint Westwood]

Bolton v HULL +0.5 (+112)

2 units.

==================================

Other than the short rest for Hull I can't understand why Bolton are being made such favourites for this game. Even allowing for this Hull look a great price here; it looks like a big over-reaction to Hull's terrible away results thus far but The Reebok is hardly a fortress at the moment as well.

[Clint Westwood]

ASTON VILLA +0.25 v Liverpool (-109)

1.1 units

===================================

[Clint Westwood]

PORTSMOUTH +1 v Arsenal (+102)

Portsmouth v Arsenal u2.5 goals (-108)

================================

[Clint Westwood]

Aston Villa v BLACKBURN +0.75 (+101)

2 units.

[Clint Westwood]

STOKE pk v Fulham (-101)

=======================================

[Clint Westwood]

Arsenal v EVERTON +1.25 (+109)

Risk 2 units.

=======================================

[Clint Westwood]

BIRMINGHAM +1 v Man Utd (-119)

1.19 units.

====================================

[Clint Westwood]

Man City v BLACKBURN +1 (+104)

1 unit.

===============================

I was waiting for a better line and completely misread this move. This is as marginal as can be now. I want it in my record anyway.

[Clint Westwood]

68.5-69-16.5 Risked 180.1u -2.2u ROI -1.2%

Stoke v LIVERPOOL (+118)

2.0 u

(Yes, I know Torres, Benayoun and Gerrard are missing) :)

EVERTON pk v Man City (+105)

1.0u

============================================

[Clint Westwood]

ASTON VILLA v West Ham (-173)

1.73u
===================================

[Clint Westwood]

LIVERPOOL v Tottenham (+149)

===================================

[Clint Westwood]

Wolves v LIVERPOOL -0.5 (-118)

Risk 2 units.

======================================

I'm back for more and I've bet this one early; -118 looks like a steal in this spot.

[Clint Westwood]

Tottenham v FULHAM +1 (-121)

Risk 1.8 units.

=====================================

[Clint Westwood]

Updated record:

70.5 - 73 - 16.5
Risked 189.7
Return -7.3u
ROI -3.8%

[Clint Westwood]

West Ham v BLACKBURN +0.5 (-117)

Risk 2.34 units

==================================

[Clint Westwood]

LIVERPOOL -1.25 v Bolton (-105)

Risk 1.05 units.

================================

I actually think the ML is slightly better but I've taken the AH to reduce variance a bit here. Plus, it *is* Liverpool we are talking about here :)

I would've played the ML up to lst night but it has continued to move in Liverpool's favour, which should really be obvious but I hoped the midweek failure might slow things down a bit in this case.

[Clint Westwood]

ARSENAL pk v Man Utd (-115)

1.15 units.

=================================

Poor line timing really and it's likely to start nearer to -110 or better in my opinion but I won't be able to post then. I'd still play it at -115 anyway.

[Clint Westwood]

Sunderland v STOKE +0.5 (-123)

1.23 units.

==============================

I played this partially on the ML and part on the AH personally. Line looks more correct if Sunderland weren't missing their defenders and there is a good chance Kenwyne Jones may have to sit out as well.

[Clint Westwood]

73.5-74-16.5
-4.41 units

I doubt they'll be including the Sunderland-Stoke game tape in any time-capsule things that are buried for future generations to unearth, or blasted into space for the curious and grasping tentacles of alien beings to grab hold of, but it was a win nonetheless.

Anyway:

========================================

Liverpool v EVERTON +0.5 (-103)

1.03u

Bolton v FULHAM +0.25 (+102)

Risk 2 units.

HULL +0.75 v Man City (-110)

1.1u

========================================

I've missed posting the best of Everton's line; -103 is a very close call indeed.
Fulham looks a really good number at anything above evens to me.

Portsmouth and Aston Villa are also tempting. Villa almost definitely - just waiting on the line for them. The Detroit Lions - I mean, Portsmouth - that's only if I can stomach playing them again. I took an early +0.75 against Fulham earlier in the week and suffered at their hands once more.

[Clint Westwood]

Tottenham v ASTON VILLA +0.5 (-115)

1.15u

====================================

Can't imagine this line is too far off being the apex so I'll take it now.

Portsmouth's best value has left for the time being, which takes playing the decision out of my hands - probably for the best! If a decent +2.25 AH comes back I will play it though - they are better than the likes of Derby 07 and most of the Championship teams that would earn a similar line anyway.

[Clint Westwood]

Chelsea v ARSENAL +0.75 (-123)

1.23u

=======================================

[Clint Westwood]

76-76-17
Risked 203.0
Return -3.7
ROI -1.8%

===================================

Portsmouth v SUNDERLAND +0.25 (-111)

1.11u

Wigan v STOKE +0.25 (-102)

1.02u

===================================

[Clint Westwood]

Tuesday's games went 1-0-1; +1 unit. Arseholes Portsmouth equalised in injury time, unfortunately.

======================================

ASTON VILLA +0.5 v Man Utd (+100)

2 units

West Ham v BIRMINGHAM +0.25 (-106)

1.06u

EVERTON +0.75 v Chelsea (-106)

1.06u

======================================

I should really play more on Everton and may add to my bet on them; I can't justify downgrading them any more, even accounting for loss of Piennar and Fellaini, and the line still seems way off. I'll defer to the market for the time being and stick to a single unit wager for now.

[Clint Westwood]

Arsenal v LIVERPOOL +0.5 (-119)

1.19u

==================================

Busy day for me :)

Eduardo is missing again for Arsenal; even though he's really a second-string forward anyway, they're down to using Arshavin and Nasri and - hopefully - Bendtner as forwards. Offensively they are about as lightweight as they could be right now and the rest of the team isn't doing enough. They looked okay for periods against Chelsea but then allowed Drogba to take the piss completely. Against Liverpool they'll be facing a different type of threat; Insua is playing very well at the moment and Kuyt is looking like a reasonable striker again. Plus, he owes me from the Stoke game.

[The Chaperone]

I always thought Kuyt got a bad rap. He ain't that bad. Just easy for Pool fans to take out their frustrations on him for some reason.

[HeeHaw]

Kuyt gives a great effort and is deadly from the penalty spot, but his finishing leaves a lot to be desired. In that Stoke game mentioned, he had a wide open header at the goal and clanged it off the post. When Kuyt's on form, that goes in. When he's not on form, it hits the post or misses.

[Clint Westwood]

WOLVES +0.75 v Tottenham (-114)

1.14u

===============================

Wolves are poor, but not *this* poor. And/or Spurs are good, but noth *this* good.

[Clint Westwood]

Man City v STOKE +1 (+104)

==============================

[Big Baller]

NIce call on the wolves, and on Stoke.

[Clint Westwood]

Crystal Palace v ASTON VILLA -0.5 (-106)

1.06u

========================================

[Clint Westwood]

Crystal Palace v ASTON VILLA -0.5 (-106)

1.06u

========================================

0-1; -1.06u

W L P OPEN Risked Return ROI
81-79-18
Risked 217.5u
Return -0.9u
ROI -0.4%

========================================

Back into the red I go. Moving swiftly on:

EVERTON +0.5 v Man Utd (+110)

Risk 1.5 units.

West Ham v HULL +0.75 (-111)

Risk 1.67 units.

Portsmouth v STOKE +0.25 (-113)

Risk 1.7 units.

========================================

The line on Everton looks stupid again; it may even continue rising, given the history of United backers, but I'll stick now with this - it's still a great bet.

I took the +0.75 line on Hull rather than +0.5 at +120 or thereabouts. Either is good really, I think, but I don't see anything worse than a 1 goal loss for Hull so I've taken the chicken's way out.

Nothing much to say about the Stoke game, other than that in my opinion the line is down Portsmouth "being due" above all else. No reason to oppose Stoke in this spot.

[Clint Westwood]

Aston Villa v BURNLEY +1.5 (-118)

1.18 units.

====================================

[The Chaperone]

Quick question: What is Landycakes' status with Everton?

I watched yesterday's game and he seem to fit in there just fine. Although he's consistently one of the more unpopular players over here, it's been obvious to me that he's too good to just stay in the MLS his whole career. Then again who knows what he is thinking.

[Clint Westwood]

He's held in about the same esteem as 'striker extraordinaire' Dirk Kuyt is.

:)

No way - he's pretty much a hero now. Apparently, as you say, he does like sauntering around the MLS with 40 year old Spaniards and fat Brazilians and the like, for some reason. But already it was mentioned that there is some deal in place to take him on loan at the same stage next season.

It must be the next logical step for more teams to look at, actually; taking on decent MLS players in their off-season.

He's fit in really well with Everton's system and it's probably about as good a match for him as he could get; he gets to take some free kicks and most corners already, and is guaranteed to start now, whereas he'd struggle to get the same level of exposure at the Chelseas and Man Utds of the league. It's annoying to me only because I want Yakubu to get more playing time but there's no place for him with Saha and Donovan, and Cahill too, all fit. Donovan looks good enough to start in every team over here with the exception of Chelsea and a fully-fit Arsenal team, imho.

Overall everyone is very impressed with him, his attitude, ability and his work-rate.

As for Dirk the Daring - I think complaints about his poor goal-return ratios are well warranted. Then again, Emile Heskey manages to continue to earn respect despite providing just about the worst return-rate for a striker as I can think of. Both of them playing at top clubs doesn't help their cause at all.

He's found his place more on the wing and even then it's in a more defensive role. Playing for a team with basically only one recognisable striker, I don't think he has done enough offensively. I suppose it is hard on his stats when Gerrard takes the penalties and free kicks, though, whereas the Rooneys and Defoes of the league get penalties added in to their ratios. Drogba doesn't though and there are other lesser lights out there that do a better job - Kevin Davies of Bolton, for one.

I still think he's a decent player, just not an effective forward. Liverpool have a history of poor buys in this area of late, Torres excepted, come to think of it.

[Clint Westwood]

EVERTON +0.5 v Man Utd (+110)

Risk 1.5 units. W +1.65u

West Ham v HULL +0.75 (-111)

Risk 1.67 units. L -1.67u

Portsmouth v STOKE +0.25 (-113)

Risk 1.7 units. W 1.5u

21/02
Aston Villa v BURNLEY +1.5 (-118)

1.18 units. L -1.18u

==========================================

A brief flirtation with + units, and back to the red again; -0.63 units overall thus far.



====================================

[The Chaperone]

He's held in about the same esteem as 'striker extraordinaire' Dirk Kuyt is.

:)

No way - he's pretty much a hero now. Apparently, as you say, he does like sauntering around the MLS with 40 year old Spaniards and fat Brazilians and the like, for some reason. But already it was mentioned that there is some deal in place to take him on loan at the same stage next season.

It must be the next logical step for more teams to look at, actually; taking on decent MLS players in their off-season.

He's fit in really well with Everton's system and it's probably about as good a match for him as he could get; he gets to take some free kicks and most corners already, and is guaranteed to start now, whereas he'd struggle to get the same level of exposure at the Chelseas and Man Utds of the league. It's annoying to me only because I want Yakubu to get more playing time but there's no place for him with Saha and Donovan, and Cahill too, all fit. Donovan looks good enough to start in every team over here with the exception of Chelsea and a fully-fit Arsenal team, imho.

Overall everyone is very impressed with him, his attitude, ability and his work-rate.

As for Dirk the Daring - I think complaints about his poor goal-return ratios are well warranted. Then again, Emile Heskey manages to continue to earn respect despite providing just about the worst return-rate for a striker as I can think of. Both of them playing at top clubs doesn't help their cause at all.

He's found his place more on the wing and even then it's in a more defensive role. Playing for a team with basically only one recognisable striker, I don't think he has done enough offensively. I suppose it is hard on his stats when Gerrard takes the penalties and free kicks, though, whereas the Rooneys and Defoes of the league get penalties added in to their ratios. Drogba doesn't though and there are other lesser lights out there that do a better job - Kevin Davies of Bolton, for one.

I still think he's a decent player, just not an effective forward. Liverpool have a history of poor buys in this area of late, Torres excepted, come to think of it.

Funny thing is a couple years ago I was drunk and lurking on some Liverpool forum (no idea why) and was reading through some 'Dirk Kuyt is rubbish' type thread and decided to go for a trolling post. I suggested they pick up Donovan to replace him and all these guys who had been ripping Kuyt then started ripping me telling me that Kuyt wasn't *that* bad. It was high comedy.

As for Torres, I don't get to watch him play much, but I think he is my favorite player. Doesn't get enough credit for the manner in which he gives his full 90 every time out. It's rare you see superstars who consistently give that kind of effort.

[Clint Westwood]

Tottenham v BOLTON +1.5 (-101)

1.01u

===================================

It's tough to make a case for Tottenham being so heavily-favoured here. After worst-case adjustments to Bolton and the worth of this game to them I still make this a good bet.

[Clint Westwood]

Tottenham v BOLTON +1.5 (-101)

1.01u L -1.01u

===================================

Bolton v WOLVES +0.5 (-119)

1.19u

Burnley v PORTSMOUTH +0.5 (-111)

1.11u

Liverpool v BLACKBURN +1.5 (-113)

1.13u

===================================

[Clint Westwood]

Sunderland v FULHAM +0.5 (-122)
1.22u

Tottenham v EVERTON +0.5 (-105)
1.58u

===================================

Fulham would be a larger play for me as well if Zamora was definitely going to play. He's listed as doubtful at the moment so I've played it cautiously. I'll probably play more later if he does start.

[Clint Westwood]

Sunderland v FULHAM +0.5 (-122)
1.22u w +1.0u

Tottenham v EVERTON +0.5 (-105)
1.58u l -1.05u

===================================

West Ham v BOLTON +0.75 (-107)

1.07u

===================================

[Clint Westwood]

West Ham v BOLTON +0.75 (-107)

1.07u w 1.0 unit

===================================

Burnley v STOKE pk (+118)

1.0 u

===================================

[Clint Westwood]

===================================

Burnley v STOKE pk (+118)

1.0 u p 0u

===================================

Tottenham v BLACKBURN +1.25 (-109)

1.68u

Bolton v WIGAN +0.5 (-127)

1.27u

=========================================

[The Chaperone]

...risking 1.68 units to win ???

[Clint Westwood]

Tottenham v BLACKBURN +1.25 (-109)

1.68u l -1.68u

Bolton v WIGAN +0.5 (-127)

1.27u l -1.27u

=========================================

SUNDERLAND +0.25 v Man City (+104)

=========================================

[Clint Westwood]

...risking 1.68 units to win ???

Was supposed to be to win 1.5 units. I can't divide by half properly.

I thought you might be posting to bemoan the poor fortune my bets are suffering of late, not my poor maths skills :)

While I'm replying here, I'd also like to retract my love for Landon Donovan - did you see his miss in the game v Spurs? Atrocious!

[Clint Westwood]

SUNDERLAND +0.25 v Man City (+104)

hw; +0.52 unit

======================================

Sunderland v BIRMINGHAM +0.25 (+103)

1.0 unit

======================================

[Clint Westwood]

Sunderland v BIRMINGHAM +0.25 (+103)

1.0 unit L -1.0 unit.

======================================

Arsenal v WEST HAM +2 (-103)

1.03 units

[Clint Westwood]

======================================

Arsenal v WEST HAM +2 (-103)

1.03 units p +0u

======================================

Man Utd v LIVERPOOL +0.5 (+112)

1 unit.

======================================

My timing on this one is pretty horrible but it's still worth a 1.0 unit play imo. It was worth much more late on yesterday, of course...........

[Clint Westwood]

Man Utd v LIVERPOOL +0.5 (+112)

1 unit. L -1.0 unit

======================================

West Ham v WOLVES +0.5 (+115)

======================================

[Clint Westwood]

West Ham v WOLVES +0.5 (+115)

W +1.15 units.
======================================

Blackburn v BIRMINGHAM +0.5 (-114)

1.14 units.

======================================

[Clint Westwood]

Blackburn v BIRMINGHAM +0.5 (-114)

1.14 units. L -1.14 units.

======================================

Wolves v EVERTON -0.5 (+115)

1.0 unit.

======================================

[Clint Westwood]

Hull v FULHAM +0.25 (-117)

1.76 units

Tottenham v PORTSMOUTH +2 (-120)

1.2 units

=============================

[Clint Westwood]

Hull v FULHAM +0.25 (-117)

1.76 units l -1.76u

Tottenham v PORTSMOUTH +2 (-120)

1.2 units p 0u

=============================

SUNDERLAND +0.25 v Tottenham (-101)

1.5 units.

=====================================

[Clint Westwood]

BURNLEY +0.75 v Man City (+103)

1 unit.

[Clint Westwood]

SUNDERLAND +0.25 v Tottenham (-101)

1.5 units. w +1.5 units.

BURNLEY +0.75 v Man City (+103)

1 unit. l -1.0 unit.

=====================================

Tough beat with Burnley. They looked well in the game for 4 minutes or so.

This weekend I have bet:

Hull v BURNLEY +0.5 (+120)

1u

West Ham v SUNDERLAND +0.5 (-117)

1.17u

Wolves v STOKE +0.25 (-106)

1.06u

BLACKBURN +1 v Man Utd (+106)

1u

==================================

[The Chaperone]

Tough beat with Burnley. They looked well in the game for 4 minutes or so.



LMAO!

I don't even follow EPL and even I heard about that one.

[Clint Westwood]

Liverpool v FULHAM +1.5 (-108)

===============================

Missed Portsmouth +1.5 in the FA Cup unfortunately but Torres-less Liverpool look worth opposing even after the line move - his absence looks undervalued, amazing though that notion may seem.

[Clint Westwood]

Man City v BIRMINGHAM +1.5 (-118)

1.18u

================================

Very busy Premiership weekend for me......

[Clint Westwood]

Previously on Clint Westwood soccer.......

Hull v BURNLEY +0.5 (+120) w 1.2u

West Ham v SUNDERLAND +0.5 (-117) l -1.17u

Wolves v STOKE +0.25 (-106) hw +0.5u

BLACKBURN +1 v Man Utd (+106) 1u w +1.0u

Liverpool v FULHAM +1.5 (-108) w +1.0u

Man City v BIRMINGHAM +1.5 (-118) l -1.18u
1.18u

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Wigan v PORTSMOUTH +1 (-113)

1.13u

=========================================

Ordinarily this should be at least a 2u bet for me but Portsmouth's motivation for the game is very questionable (I'm thinking 'Phil Jagielka' as an example from last year and Portsmouth have much less to care for than Everton did then). Just to win 1u for now, it is.

[Clint Westwood]

LMAO!

I don't even follow EPL and even I heard about that one.

After they went behind after 131 seconds against Hull I was preparing for your comments re. the same lol!

[Clint Westwood]

Wigan v PORTSMOUTH +1 (-113)

1.13u W +1.0u

=========================================

As usual, the horrible line move against my bet guarantees a win at a terrible price, yet whenever I am on the good side of such a move, the bet seems doomed to failure.

FULHAM -0.5 v Wolves (+115)

1 unit.

=========================================

Similar to the Portsmouth game from last night; opponent is a 'must-win' team while my side has nothing to play for in terms of league standing. Except probably close to £700k per place in the final league table, that is.

I do think Fulham will rest players, given their upcoming Europa game, but equally, the 'must-win' factor seems to have been overdone somewhat in Wolves' case.

[Clint Westwood]

FULHAM -0.5 v Wolves (+115)

1 unit. L -1 unit.

Woeful.

================================

PORTSMOUTH +1 v Aston Villa (-118)

1.18 units.

================================

[Clint Westwood]

PORTSMOUTH +1 v Aston Villa (-118)

1.18 units. P

I'll take it.

==============================

Man Utd v TOTTENHAM +1 (+112)
1u

Wolves v BLACKBURN +0.25 (-102)
1.02u

=============================

[Clint Westwood]

ARSENAL -0.5 v Man City (+108)
1u

==============================

This line might get better depending on the result of the Man U - Tottenham game; it may get worse. I'm not waiting to find out.

[Clint Westwood]

West Ham v WIGAN +0.5 (+106)
1u

===========================

[Clint Westwood]

============================

Man Utd v TOTTENHAM +1 (+112)
1u L -1.0 unit

Wolves v BLACKBURN +0.25 (-102)
1.02u HW +0.5 unit

ARSENAL -0.5 v Man City (+108)
1u L -1.0 unit

West Ham v WIGAN +0.5 (+106)
L -1.0 unit

===========================

Birmingham v BURNLEY +1 (-108) 1.08u
Man City v ASTON VILLA +0.5 (+100) 1.0u
Tottenham v BOLTON +1.5 (+121) 1.0u

===========================

I've really played Bolton +1.75 but the 1.5 line seems as good at Pinnacle. The Burnley line has lost a lot of value but is still okay to play for 1 unit for me anyway.

[Clint Westwood]

===========================

Birmingham v BURNLEY +1 (-108) 1.08u P +0 unit
Man City v ASTON VILLA +0.5 (+100) 1.0u L -1.0 unit
Tottenham v BOLTON +1.5 (+121) 1.0u W +1.21 units

===========================

SUNDERLAND +1.25 v Man Utd (-103) 1.03u

===========================

[Clint Westwood]

===========================

SUNDERLAND +1.25 v Man Utd (-103) 1.03u HW +0.5 unit

===========================

Man City v TOTTENHAM +0.5 (-106) 2.12 units

===========================

[Clint Westwood]

===========================

Man City v TOTTENHAM +0.5 (-106) 2.12 units W +2.0 units

===========================

Aston Villa v BLACKBURN +1 (-108) 1.08 units

===========================

[The Chaperone]

Was hoping you would Yosh in this spot. Tout basic strategy :-)

[Clint Westwood]

Ha!

I did consider a Hail Mary ML bet on Blackburn today but didn't do it in the end. I'm a model tout - I mean, pro. I saved my Yoshing for real-life - I played 3 or 4 other games today, and did quite well overall; the nicest/biggest surprise being u2.5 cashing on West Ham - Man City, despite the underdog scoring first and the total sitting at 2 for about 65 minutes or maybe longer......

I'm not *that* badly down anyway, what with Chelsea 'win Prem' cashing, and I'm a victim of circumstance really - had RTP started along with the Premiership last season, I'd still be well in +figures. Then again, if it had started back in 2004 or whenever, I'm sure I'd be attributing past seasons to MIT-attendee room mates posting under my moniker, and other such nonsense, at this point.

[Clint Westwood]

W 99 L 100 P 25 Risked 264.7 Return -3.4 ROI -1.3%

A disappointing season indeed. Maybe I shall take The Chaperone's advice and whack the FA Cup and CL Finals. Hell, there's still the Europa League thing to shoot at.

THIS AINT OVER YET!

[Clint Westwood]

Advance from group:

#2009 SOUTH AFRICA (+157)
#2113 SOUTH KOREA (+220)

Risk 1u on each.

======================================

[Clint Westwood]

SOUTH KOREA PK v Greece (+111)

2 units.

==================================

Pretty obvious bet for me, giving my Korean leanings. This looks a stand-out bet to me.

[The Chaperone]

SOUTH KOREA PK v Greece (+111)

2 units.

==================================

Pretty obvious bet for me, giving my Korean leanings. This looks a stand-out bet to me.

I like this one too.

[Clint Westwood]

#2415 Will both teams score? YES +122

1u

=====================================

USA are the team to back with a decent AH as well, imo. I like Dawson but his call-up has come a little too late to the England squad and with Ledley King featuring too, they are weaker defensively than usual. And Glenn Johnson is playing he's too weak defensively. England are also easily capable of scoring against USA even at their best and I prefer this bet to the o2.5 equivalent.

Dawson in particular is going to suffer with the apparently harsh stance the referees are taking on fouling in this tournament too.

[Clint Westwood]

England NO own goal scored in tournament (-350) Risk 1.5u

England YES next penalty scored (includes shootouts; is void if no penalty taken by England) (-333) Risk 1.5u

I played these two at Corals. If they can count, I'll add them to my record; if not, I won't request all of my prior posts be deleted etc......

[Clint Westwood]

I can't play USA +1 at the current line (-101); not when The Chaperone has +1.25 -111.

Where have all the flowers gone? Where is all of the England money? I was smugly waiting for the line to move out comfortably in my favour but this has happened instead. In the unlikely event -120 shows up for +1.25 I'll play that

Oh well - I can root properly for a thrashing of the US now, with a consolation goal for the US, rather than have to conceal my indifference if England fail to win.

[The Chaperone]

#2415 Will both teams score? YES +122

1u

I prefer this bet to the o2.5 equivalent.

I hate you.

<tears up donk ov 2.5 ticket>

[The Chaperone]

PS interesting game. Obviously the US lucked out with that goal, but then again you would have expected that GK would be one of the few positions where we had an advantage and those things do happen.

Felt like the US was very shaky early on, but shared control of the game pretty evenly for the latter 2/3 of the match. England of course with better quality touches at important moments and Howard bailing us out a couple times. Would have loved to see Altidore's shot off the GK and then the post sneak in as it would have helped my ov 2.5 and usa 2-1 exact score +2411 bets along with aiding my square USA root :-)

We can root for a draw with ALG/Slovenia, but I think Slovenia will probably get 3 points there meaning the US will need either a win vs. Slovenia or a Slovenia draw and a win over Algeria to advance. I wouldn't be too concerned about advancing if I were England.

[PerpetualCzech]

but I think Slovenia will probably get 3 points there

Sun 6/13 1701 Slovenia o o +135 o Props
04:30 AM 1702 Algeria o o +257 o
1703 - Draw o +218

[PerpetualCzech]

That didn't paste well, but you get the idea. -0.5 +135, 4 unit play?

[Clint Westwood]

Slovenia v Algeria o2 (+108)

Risk 1u


Sun 6/13 1701 Slovenia o o +135 o Props
04:30 AM 1702 Algeria o o +257 o
1703 - Draw o +218

Maybe with "the spirit of having action on every game" it does.

:)

I did/do like the look of this bet - I took Slovenia -0.25 +105 earlier so I'm on (seemingly) the right side, but the disadvantage the Europeans are under in this tournament is a consideration - early days so far but it does look a factor that can tip the edge of these bets one way or the other.

As that line is nowhere near widely-available (probably not even 'a' now), instead I'll chance o2 +108 on the weird new semi-artificial pitch that they've somehow got permission to install at the new stadium in Polokwane. Which apparently translates as 'Place of safety' - a bold claim to make anywhere in SA, but I digress. But just to re-gress a moment; what a pity that the stadium's full virginity is going to be taken by Slovenia and Algeria.

Anyway, I do think the condition of this pitch could be a factor towards +goals rather than -, which also leaves me happy with the favourite in this case. I have no data or anything scientific to back up my thinking here, by the way.......

[Clint Westwood]

I hate you.

<tears up donk ov 2.5 ticket>

:) Well it's not likely I'll out-smart you many more times so I'll take it!

Also, your early grab of that US Asian Handicap put me right off the later +1 equivalent - without your post I would have been blissfully ignorant and happily taken it at evens, so I hate you also.

What a way to cash that bet though! Green's error was horrible; and rather than go over the top with commending his second-half stop (barely) of Altidore, I thought he made a mess of that save to be honest. Nevertheless at this point I'd still prefer him over Joe Hart, just because of the pressure of it all, plus the consideration that the 'keeper is not going to be helped much by the weak defence he's got in front of him.

It was an entertaining game but neither team looked remotely capable of doing any serious damage in this competition.

Which leads me to.....

[Clint Westwood]

BRAZIL +432
Risk 0.5u
PORTUGAL +2816
Risk 0.1u

I played Brazil a long while back, at 6.2 but at Betfair, so commission to be removed from that line.

I have been very unimpressed by the look of the big teams we've seen up to now and continue to have reservations over Spain's defensive abilities. Neither of the two teams I'm betting (above) are close to being infallible but with a semblance of HFA to Brazil I think +432 is still okay.

Portugal look like this tournament's version of France 2006 - it looks very early to be writing them off to this degree. 0.1u is a reasonable risk to take and I also have NO new WC Winner so this can act as a bit of insurance against that too.

Hopefully Spain won't ruin everything for me in the meantime.

[The Chaperone]

I'm on Slovenia. I chased and got something decent though the number was getting away from me a bit. I certainly wouldn't bet what Pin has on offer right now.

Algeria must have the lowest home continent edge of any team in WC history. I will grant some HCA to the sub-Saharan teams even though they are miles away from South Africa, but Algeria has nothing in common with RSA. Geographically, ethnically, culturally these are far different places. Algeria would be far more comfortable playing in France or even Spain or Italy imo.

Also Slovenia is not your typical public European team which makes me feel better about backing them. Right now Spain is a big question mark for me and I'm not sure I'll get an answer on them until it's too late (sure they will probably crush Honduras but what does that really tell you). I will however continue to be bearish on the middle tier Euro teams (ENG, FRA, ITA, GER, NED, etc.) until I'm proven wrong. Could be today with GER/AUS. Who knows :-)

[Clint Westwood]

#4651 Will Serbia have a clean sheet? YES (+138)

1u

===========================================

Line movement on the Krauts is getting so severe it'll soon be time to consider them. Kudos to holders of Aus +1 at evens and better.

[Clint Westwood]

#4613 Will a player be sent off? YES (+290)

Risk 0.5u

==========================================

[Clint Westwood]

Just to clarify.

[Clint Westwood]

#2851 Will Germany have a clean sheet? YES (-104)

to win 1 unit.

============================================

This looks better than -1 AH to me. No value left in Australia at this time but now an opportunity to play Germany.

[Clint Westwood]

HOLLAND -1 v Denmark (-106)

to win 1u

ITALY -0.25 v Paraguay (-111)

to win 1u
=====================================

Yes - I know Robben isn't likely to play. I also have Holland to win this group, for what it's worth. I think they're the most likely candidate to get 9 group points.

Not much to say about Italy except I won't be playing o2 goals in this game - Paraguay are even more defensive-minded than Italy. I think Italy can play at their own pace and win here; certainly shouldn't be worse than half-loss.

[The Chaperone]

I think they're the most likely candidate to get 9 group points.

I take it you will be on Chile vs. Spain then.

[Clint Westwood]

#3516 Italy v Paraguay Will both teams score? NO (-146)

To win 1u

==============================================

Didn't think of this before - thanks, Chaperone - two of the most defensive minded teams playing each other and both looking noticeably weaker offensively than many rivals. An excellent bet, and only 3c worse than Chaperone's hit? Yes please, sir.

[Clint Westwood]

I take it you will be on Chile vs. Spain then.

I won't necessarily wait that long either..........

[Clint Westwood]

#3516 Italy v Paraguay Will both teams score? NO (-146)

To win 1u

==============================================

Didn't think of this before - thanks, Chaperone - two of the most defensive minded teams playing each other and both looking noticeably weaker offensively than many rivals. An excellent bet, and only 3c worse than Chaperone's hit? Yes please, sir.

I just wanted to say at this point that I'm aware that not all cents are created equal; but that -146 should is still good enough for me.

[Clint Westwood]

#3516 Italy v Paraguay Will both teams score? NO (-146)

To win 1u

==============================================

Didn't think of this before - thanks, Chaperone - two of the most defensive minded teams playing each other and both looking noticeably weaker offensively than many rivals. An excellent bet, and only 3c worse than Chaperone's hit? Yes please, sir.

==============================================
16/06

#2005 Spain v SWITZERLAND +1.5 (-102)

Risk 1.5 units.

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[Clint Westwood]

FRANCE -0.25 v Mexico (+100)

DENMARK -0.25 v Cameroon (+117)

Risk 1u on each.

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[The Chaperone]

That's a nice number, but it would probably take pick to get me to back the frogs in this spot.

[bettor]

==============================================
16/06

#2005 Spain v SWITZERLAND +1.5 (-102)

Risk 1.5 units.

==============================================

Best Wishes!!!

[Clint Westwood]

#2202 Germany v SERBIA +0.75 (-104)

to win 1 unit.

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[Clint Westwood]

#2204 USA -0.25 v Slovenia (-114)

Risk 1.14u

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Can't see any point in waiting on this line.

[The Chaperone]

In an odd way, despite winning their first game, Slovenia kind of looked like they didn't belong in this tournament. Gotta think Altidore, Buddle, or whoever find ways to score a couple on them while USA defense will make it difficult for them to score on the other end. I was encouraged by Onyewu's apparent fitness vs. England.

[Clint Westwood]

In an odd way, despite winning their first game, Slovenia kind of looked like they didn't belong in this tournament. Gotta think Altidore, Buddle, or whoever find ways to score a couple on them while USA defense will make it difficult for them to score on the other end. I was encouraged by Onyewu's apparent fitness vs. England.

I agree with all of what you say, and I would add that USA's defence looks stronger than I originally expected. Good quality and supply from midfield as well, particulary that Cherundolo guy, and with Dempsey helping out it shouldn't be too much to ask Altidore, Donovan or even Bindle or whatever he's called to score. Onyewu is obviously class but the players around him are the best the US has had for a long time in my opinion, and Howard is a great goalkeeper too.

Slovenia are only heading the group having had the benefit of playing Algeria first. It's a mystery how they qualified ahead of Egypt and they're obviously one of the worst teams there, if not the absolute worst. A shaky England team getting -1.5 handicap against them says enough. All good indicators to side with USA over Slovenia for me.

[Clint Westwood]

W 6 L 3.5 P 0.5 Open 4 Risk 14.3 Return +4.3u ROI 30.5%

========================================

I'm happy enough with things so far - South Africa to qualify looks a loss now but South Korea to advance should hopefully cover that and return a bit more profit. I've been running very good overall; hopefully it shall continue for a while longer.

Apart from a couple of outrights on Brazil and Portugal amounting to 0.6 units risked that's all my open bets, excluding the Round 2 ones.

I also have played a little on France outright - the anti-sentiment against them has almost reached fever pitch already but despite their drawbacks they still have plenty of talented players and are one of the strongest squads when evaluated player-for-player. The manager is a complete idiot though, but they've managed to achieve decent records under him so I've tried catching them at what I hope will be the ceiling of their odds to win the competition.

[Clint Westwood]

That's a nice number, but it would probably take pick to get me to back the frogs in this spot.


Well, your number on Mexico is also rather nice, with the advantage of scalping out or middling or whatever if you wanted to, so congrats with the excellent timing of that one.

As France aren't likely to make pk in time for the kickoff, we'll just have to go h2h again on this one. I feel like the bad-guy wrestler up against the All-American hero for siding with le frogz here.

[Clint Westwood]

Argentina v SOUTH KOREA +1 (+106)

Risk 1u

==================================

Chancing South Korea again - seeing as they have come with a plan that their players are able to carry out competently, it'll be interesting to see what Maradona does if his team aren't allowed to take an early lead.

Getting +106 seems generous at this time and it's difficult to see how the favourite will attract enough money to make this -EV from where it's at now.

[Big Baller]

Nice work on the Switz pick.
+1.5 with anybody is practically a lock.

[The Chaperone]

Although I'm kind of bullish on ARG, I do agree with the South Korea pick. I'll probably wait till the knockout stage to back Argentina.

[The Chaperone]

I agree with all of what you say, and I would add that USA's defence looks stronger than I originally expected. Good quality and supply from midfield as well, particulary that Cherundolo guy, and with Dempsey helping out it shouldn't be too much to ask Altidore, Donovan or even Bindle or whatever he's called to score. Onyewu is obviously class but the players around him are the best the US has had for a long time in my opinion, and Howard is a great goalkeeper too.

Slovenia are only heading the group having had the benefit of playing Algeria first. It's a mystery how they qualified ahead of Egypt and they're obviously one of the worst teams there, if not the absolute worst. A shaky England team getting -1.5 handicap against them says enough. All good indicators to side with USA over Slovenia for me.

Also Slovenia wins the prize for the gayest goal celebration to date in this tournament:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgZ9LUQoRaY&feature=related

WTF are they doing there at 0:22? The sad thing is they had to practice that before the game. I want to fade them on principle.

[Big Baller]

LMFAO!
Back street boys meets Village People.
Don't think it's going to be easy, but USA has to get out of it with it 3pts.
Watching England battle the Algerians will be nice after we get our points.

[sundown]

sure like mex pk and +½ -120 on the interactive halftime price.
france appeared completely listless in their first match and apparently that is carrying over into this one.

[Clint Westwood]

I was locked in with France unfortunately so I went down with that sinking ship. Well, it was more of a stinking submarine as they never appeared to float at all.

Pretty funny argument with the English commentators, who had a large disagreement over how France played in the first half. One of them thought they were quite impressive and 'a huge improvement over their performance against Uruguay' while the other, who hadn't seen that game, was shocked that the France he watched last night were an improvement over anything. Pound-for-pound they are easily the worst contender of the tournament so far.

Typical though that they still have a chance of actually progressing. I've read Chaperone's comments on why a Mex-Uru draw is not the foregone conclusion many people consider it to be and France will be playing South Africa minus their first-choice goalkeeper as well - it really isn't out of the realms of possibility for them to crawl through the catflap and out of this group, imho.

[The Chaperone]

Put down the Kool Aid.

[Clint Westwood]

1.05 and 1.07 on Betfair for Uruguay and Mexico respectively to progress.

Knock yourself out, Chaperone. With the shorter priced offers on there you can get a unit or two down on each of them, I'm sure. 'To win' one unit would be pushing it, but you can at least get some beer money to watch USA *maybe* in the latter rounds..........

[sundown]

played some uru/mex un 2 -43 when it first opened along with uru pk +15. i think the better squad is the dog, here. uru looks very impressive on D. eyeballing any good markets on 1 nil uruguay, 2 nil uruguay.

[sundown]

england looking "quite limp". played some algeria +1.5 and +1 // +1 etc etc on the interactive as the 1st half transpired..

[WarDekar]

Let's go fighting Desert Foxes!

[Clint Westwood]

#2304 GHANA v Australia (+126)

======================================

I can't understand why the money is all going Australia's way for this game, especially with Cahill missing. I also can't imagine it getting much better in Ghana's favour (betting-wise) so have bet this now.

[Clint Westwood]

england looking "quite limp". played some algeria +1.5 and +1 // +1 etc etc on the interactive as the 1st half transpired..

What an awful performance, and a good call again by you. I'll make sure I'm around at HT of the next round of games :)

That is easily the worst game Wayne Rooney has ever played and the rest were as bad. At least they kept a clean sheet..........

[Clint Westwood]

#2304 GHANA v Australia (+126)

======================================

I can't understand why the money is all going Australia's way for this game, especially with Cahill missing. I also can't imagine it getting much better in Ghana's favour (betting-wise) so have bet this now.

======================================

GHANA +151

Another 1u risked on this one. Madness.