SB props..

[daringly]

I've now spent about 20 hours on Super Bowl props. The more I look at the matchups, the more it seems that the Super Bowl line is very much off as far as the spread/ML. Anyone else seeing some things that surprise you once you immerse yourself in it?

[Prop Man]

What do you mean by the matchups? Do you mean the individual props already listed by some books? Or do you mean the individual players stats?

if you mean the latter, one advice I have is to put the individual player stats into context of the game line. At least to the degree where you are comfortable betting the game line. Hypothetical example: if the line/total is expecting Arizona to score 20 points, but Warner averaged 3 TD passes a game during the season (he didn't, but again, this is a hypothetical) then using Warner's season numbers to bet his over/under on TD passes would be way off (unless ARI never ever scores a different type of TD other than passing).

[daringly]

I'm very good at normalizing player statistics for expected situations. But when I look at the likely matchups, I can't justify a line of Pittsburgh -7.

[PerpetualCzech]

I'm very good at normalizing player statistics for expected situations. But when I look at the likely matchups, I can't justify a line of Pittsburgh -7.

What line CAN you justify? :)

[daringly]

Pittsburgh -4.

[The Chaperone]

Fine, but PropMan's point is that you should be betting AZ +7, not all the props. For the purpose of props you need to consider the game line sharp. No need to make marginal prop bets because you think the line should be 4, when you could just make fantasitc bet on AZ plus the points (especially in Vegas).

[daringly]

Why take7, when it will be +7.5 next week? But yes, point taken.

[PerpetualCzech]

Why take7, when it will be +7.5 next week?

I believe this is being covered in another thread :)

[HinesWard86]

One that I really like is Gary Russell's first carry at under 2 yards at +110

Russell has 32 carries on the season. Of those 32, 14 were for fewer than 1 yard, 5 were 2 yards exactly, and 13 were for 3 or more yards. These numbers are only enhanced when you consider that:
1) Russell is only a short yardage back and only gets calls at the goal line are on 3rd and 1's
2) Many of Russell's carries that went for three or more yards were achieved in unusual situations for him (playing due to injury when Willie Parker was hurt and garbage time carries)
3) Arizona will likely be selling out to stop the run and try to make Roethlisberger beat them. On 3rd and 1 and GTG situations, Arizona is going to send everyone to make sure they don't get beat on the run.