admin
01-14-2009, 09:01 PM
Welcome to the Super Bowl Props Forum!
This forum is moderated by Prop Man
(Note from Roughing the Punter management: Prop Man is a pseudonym for someone we believe to be a capable bettor and props expert.)
I've been betting props for a few years. It all started with Super Bowl props, but has now expanded to a weekly NFL activity. I bet other things in the NFL as well, but I a big portion of my wagers are on props. I find props interesting because there are so many different types and different ways to attack them. Some props deal with players, others deal with coaching decisions, and others deal with game situations. Some props are very team-specific, others may not, past NFL games and the results in them may give us a better value than the team-specific stats for the current year.. Often it is debatable, and that makes it fun.
There are many tools to use for valuation of props. The poisson distribution is useful (see Stanford Wong's book). Understanding skewness in a distribution is useul. For example, RB's yardage on carries are usually skewed that makes the mean greater than the median, same goes for WR's yardage on receptions. Using historical numbers is useul (but one would need a big database for many of those questions). But above all, football logic is very important. I'm hoping to discuss these issues for Super Bowl props, and hopefully learn from others too as they correct me or add stuff that I did not previously know. Hopefully we can all benefit and learn in a respectful way.
This forum is moderated by Prop Man
(Note from Roughing the Punter management: Prop Man is a pseudonym for someone we believe to be a capable bettor and props expert.)
I've been betting props for a few years. It all started with Super Bowl props, but has now expanded to a weekly NFL activity. I bet other things in the NFL as well, but I a big portion of my wagers are on props. I find props interesting because there are so many different types and different ways to attack them. Some props deal with players, others deal with coaching decisions, and others deal with game situations. Some props are very team-specific, others may not, past NFL games and the results in them may give us a better value than the team-specific stats for the current year.. Often it is debatable, and that makes it fun.
There are many tools to use for valuation of props. The poisson distribution is useful (see Stanford Wong's book). Understanding skewness in a distribution is useul. For example, RB's yardage on carries are usually skewed that makes the mean greater than the median, same goes for WR's yardage on receptions. Using historical numbers is useul (but one would need a big database for many of those questions). But above all, football logic is very important. I'm hoping to discuss these issues for Super Bowl props, and hopefully learn from others too as they correct me or add stuff that I did not previously know. Hopefully we can all benefit and learn in a respectful way.