matchbook

[rams03]

I have my own theories, but am curious if anyone knows (or wants to guess) the breakdown of matchbook gamblers.

How big is each group percentage-wise (based on dollar volume).

A - squares
B - sharps
C - those laying off risk (bookies, other internet sites, etc.) of all the square bets they are booking
D - semi - sharps (smart people, that understand the math behind line values, etc., but are mainly hobbiests)

[PerpetualCzech]

Tough question. This is probably something only a MB insider could give a good picture on. I doubt we have near enough info to be able to even guess.

I see for example for NBA HTs there's a gorilla out there that loves to put up 5-figure offers. I assume it's the same guy every time but I can't be sure. If the offer disappears I can't be sure if he just took it down or if it actually got matched.

Only someone at MB would know this kind of stuff. So like I said, I doubt we have access to enough info to be able to guess. I have a contact at MB and I'll show him this thread. Maybe he'll have something to say.

[superdink]

middlers middlers miiddlers sharps

[HinesWard86]

Have to figure there is a good proportion of scalpers and middlers there

[rams03]

Thank you for the replies. I'm interested in replies from people guessing, not just those that know (as PC refers to).

Some thoughts:

- If it were only sharps betting the side they like (no hedgers, no squares), there wouldn't be much trading going on.

- The lines are usually very sharp compared to your typical book, but it is sometimes shocking to see huge $ figures on the square side of a bet. My guess is it is someone who got down a huge amount on the other side at a square book and is attempting to lock in profits.

- The site is fantastic for squares that understand getting +7 +108 is better than +7 -110. While they may not win, they'll lose much more slowly. You would think the smart squares get their friends signed up via word of mouth and you would have a decent representation of squares betting there.

- During the Pitts / Balt game, after the Steelers went up 3-0, someone was still offering Pitt -6 -112 (for large $ amounts). This line lasted well into Balt's next posession. Was someone asleep? Was it a square with big $? Was it someone belatedly trying to lay off their big $ on the steelers bet at another book?

[custer]

Thank you for the replies. I'm interested in replies from people guessing, not just those that know (as PC refers to).

Some thoughts:

- If it were only sharps betting the side they like (no hedgers, no squares), there wouldn't be much trading going on.

- The lines are usually very sharp compared to your typical book, but it is sometimes shocking to see huge $ figures on the square side of a bet. My guess is it is someone who got down a huge amount on the other side at a square book and is attempting to lock in profits.

- The site is fantastic for squares that understand getting +7 +108 is better than +7 -110. While they may not win, they'll lose much more slowly. You would think the smart squares get their friends signed up via word of mouth and you would have a decent representation of squares betting there.

- During the Pitts / Balt game, after the Steelers went up 3-0, someone was still offering Pitt -6 -112 (for large $ amounts). This line lasted well into Balt's next posession. Was someone asleep? Was it a square with big $? Was it someone belatedly trying to lay off their big $ on the steelers bet at another book?

There's more disagreement amongst 'sharp' action than you think.

Are you sure you always know which side is the 'square side'?

agree that the live markets are very soft

[rams03]

Custer, thanks for the reply. Sorry if that came off as sounding arrogant re the "square side". No, I don't ALWAYS know which side is square.

As you mention, even among sharps there is disagreement as to which side is the right play at any certain #. Some games there is no square side, some it is hard to tell, and others it is obvious (Superbowl moneylines in most years).

That said, most would agree that if pinny is offering team A at +6 and someplace like SIA has them at +7, we know which side is the square side.

Still waiting for someone to take a stab at what % of dollar volume is non-hedging sharp action.

[custer]

I didn't think you were sounding arrogant. I was just being coy, as I don't always know which is the sharp side either.

As to your last question, it comes down to the definition of sharp. Most playing on matchbook are sharper than those playing on SIA for example, and they probably understand the value of playing with less vig. If you are talking about what % of money is coming from winning players, I would guess it is similar to other books, if that helps any. Keep in mind that there's a lot of gray area as to who is a winner and who isn't, especially in various sports.