2012 Super Bowl

[Justin1820]

Fire this back up? Anybody have anything yet for this game? Things your looking at?

I will be looking at a decent price for un 1.5 yds shortest td.
un 3.5 fgs
no both teams 33+yd fg

All the usual.

[Unclebuck]

156. First team to kickoff will be? NE -326

On sept. 7, 2008 NE played KC, won the toss & elected to receive. That was the day they lost Brady for the season with a torn ACL. Since, the Pats have played 65 games, playoffs included, & won the coin toss 28 times. On all 28 occasions, NE differed.

[mikevegas]

I bet Gronk stuff under.

RJ Bell was on the Herd yesterday and said that Mike Culbert at Cantor told him that a wise guy told him that Gronk was much healthier than the public knows. I say bull shit to that. High sprains take a few months minimum to heal. And how would any wise guy who bets at Cantor know what the real truth is about Gronk's ankle?

[mikevegas]

Lastly, I think it's anemic & craven that Cantor does not figure a way to scroll their props on an electronic board.

[Justin1820]

Here's what I have for Gronk.

MVP +2000
Yes td -150
Un 6.5 rec -150
Un 22.5 long rec -110
Un 9.5 1st rec +105
Un 81.5 -120

I bet the first two early, bet the unders a few days ago. I'll probably keep them, but not sure. I am pro-NE.

[mikevegas]

Here's what I have for Gronk.

Un 6.5 rec -150
Un 22.5 long rec -110
Un 9.5 1st rec +105
Un 81.5 -120



You'll be able to scalp or middle all but the 1st rec depending on what you finally decide. I'm wrestling w/ how much under to keep and how much to scalp.

I like the Pats, too. When > 80% of the NFL players who were interviewed on radio row this week said NYG I decided that the Pats were the way to go :)
It's analogous to asking the drunks in the sports book w/ the 10 team CBB/NBA parlay tickets who they like.

I'm debating a cheap ML tomorrow (? -125) or +7½ -400 or as close as possible.

[mikevegas]

If the best Pat ML is Cutter's -130 then add any where from 22% to 24% to go from pk to +7½:
Pats +7½ = 56.5% + 22% = 78.5% = -365.
Pats +7½ = 56.5% + 24% = 80.5% = -413.

[PerpetualCzech]

Here is my portfolio that I just fired in. I welcome all bashing and/or comments. All bets made with a Pats and Under bias in mind.


Selection 1:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Eli Manning Props
Total TD passes by Eli Manning?
210. Under 2.5 TD Passes -220


Selection 2:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Eli Manning Props
Will Eli Manning score a TD?
212. No -2050


Selection 3:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Eli Manning Props
Will Eli Manning throw a 2nd qtr TD pass?
241. No -113


Selection 4:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Field Goal Props
The last score of the first half will be?
1215. A Field Goal -106


Selection 5:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
First Quarter Shootout Props
Bradshaw vs Green-Ellis - 1st qtr most rush yds
3311. Ahmad Bradshaw -3.5 Rushing Yards -136


Selection 6:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
First Quarter Shootout Props
Bradshaw vs Green-Ellis - 1st qtr longer rush
3313. Ahmad Bradshaw -147


Selection 7:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
First Quarter Shootout Props
Bradshaw vs Green-Ellis-1st qtr most rush attempts
3315. Ahmad Bradshaw -0.5 Rush Attempt -127


Selection 8:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
First Quarter Shootout Props
Cruz vs Welker - 1st qtr most pass receiving yds
3317. Victor Cruz -129


Selection 9:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
First Quarter Shootout Props
Cruz vs Welker - 1st qtr most pass receptions
3321. Victor Cruz -136


Selection 10:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Giants Comparison Props
Will Giants score more points in?
1504. 2nd half + OT -0.5 Point +107


Selection 11:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Halves Props
Will there be more points scored in?
2702. 2nd Half + OT -0.5 Point -121


Selection 12:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Penalty Props
Number of enforced penalties committed by Patriots
3931. Over 0.5 Penalties -2500


Selection 13:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Team Comparison Props
Team to run most offensive plays in 1st qtr?
1649. New York Giants -154


Selection 14:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Tom Brady Props
Will Tom Brady score a TD?
262. No -573


Selection 15:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Various Comparison Props
Will the game go into overtime?
1730. No -1132


Selection 16:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Various Comparison Props
Will the game be decided by exactly 3 points?
1732. No -483


Selection 17:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Various Comparison Props
Last play of game a QB rush?
1763. No +162


Selection 18:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Warm Up Props
First team to kickoff will be?
156. New England Patriots -326

[PerpetualCzech]

This is the line Pinn moved the NE penalty prop tp after my bet. WTF?

03:25 PM 3931 Over 0.5 Penalties -16001 Risk To Win
3932 Under 0.5 Penalties +174 Risk To Win

[PerpetualCzech]

Added:

Selection 1:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Team Comparison Props
Team to score first points of game?
1601. New York Giants -118

[The Chaperone]

I don't think your Giants scoring more points 2h and Giants receiving the opening kickoff (and all the other 1q pro-NYG props) are internally consistent.

[PerpetualCzech]

I don't think your Giants scoring more points 2h and Giants receiving the opening kickoff (and all the other 1q pro-NYG props) are internally consistent.

I admit to getting sucked in to the 1H:2H Super Bowl scoring split theory that we talked about in the other thread.

[donovan]

PC - I think that's likely a decent portfolio. Prices on same props are better in LV, but that may not have been feasible for you. It is a problem when Pinnacle dominates the market and there are not many reasonable alternatives.

[EdTeach]

You're obviously taking a strong opinion on the NYG getting the ball first, and I am in total agreement with that. I'm fairly certain the market had already appropriately priced just about everything in regards to that tho, so I am not a fan of the pricing you got.

[PerpetualCzech]

I'm fairly certain the market had already appropriately priced just about everything in regards to that tho, so I am not a fan of the pricing you got.

I think I might have overreacted on those too. This is the 4th year of the new coin toss options and in that entire time the Pats have Recieved only 1 time, the first week of 2008. So I'm not worried if they win the toss.

The Giants have Deferred only twice, except what I didn't realize is that both those occasions happened since their Week 17 do-or-die game against the Cowboys. They deferred in that game and also against the 49ers (chose to Receive against Atlanta). The previous 30 times they won the toss they chose to Receive every single time. So who the hell knows what Coughlin is thinking.

[martidani]

Here is my portfolio that I just fired in. I welcome all bashing and/or comments. All bets made with a Pats and Under bias in mind.


Selection 3:

Selection 15:
NFL Propositions
New York Giants vs New England Patriots
Various Comparison Props
Will the game go into overtime?
1730. No -1132





Saw this at Planet Hollywood (Harrahs) at 4am this morning at -600. Seems juicy.

[mikevegas]

3 in a row closes -130 at Cris.
Please explain.
Normally this is -190 and -170 at the square shops.

[PerpetualCzech]

No Safety was -15xx at the time I made those bets. If it was in the -1200 range I was going to fire away.

[mikevegas]

3 in a row!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[donovan]

No Safety was -15xx at the time I made those bets. If it was in the -1200 range I was going to fire away.

whew, I was lucky. I found -800 but ran out of money.

[Justin1820]

Thank god I didn't find anything less then -1000 on no safety...