Fezzik 2011/12 Football Record

[ComptrBob]

Note: despite the thread title, these reports don't include the Canadian Football pick(s). LOL. I will estimate the EV of his NFL and CFB RSW total picks at a later date.

Summary through Monday, Sept. 12:

W/L: Half-wgt: 0-0, One-wgt: 23-27-4, Two-wgt: 12-9-0,
Three-wgt: 6-3-0, Four-wgt: 0-1-0
Overall weighted W/L: 65-58-4, 52.8%, +0.25u

Overall sides/totals unweighted W/L: 41-40-4, 50.6%
Overall teasers unweighted W/L: 1-1

NFL Regular season record: 48-35, 57.8%, (28-25-2 unweighted), +7.70u
CFB record: 12-11, 52.2%, (9-8-1 unweighted), -0.10u
NFLX record: 4-7-1 unweighted, -7.35u

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Where's the Canadian football??? Where's the prooooooopppppps???

[ComptrBob]

Where's the Canadian football??? Where's the prooooooopppppps???

One CFL pick, tailing a poster Londo ...lol

Only 4 props bet so far, all 1 wgt, one FGs UN 3.5, 3 NO SCORE in first 7.5 min. 3-1 so far.

I'll break out the record later in the season.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Fezzwick's whining there reminded me of Peppermint Patty in the Charlie Brown Thanksgiving special. Chuuuuckkk???? Where's the stuuuuffffffing???? Where's the maaaaashed potatoes?????

[ComptrBob]

Summary through Monday, Oct. 3:

W/L: Half-wgt: 0-0, One-wgt: 34-39-4, Two-wgt: 18-22-0,
Three-wgt: 6-4-0, Four-wgt: 0-4-0
Overall weighted W/L: 88-111-6, 44.2%, -35.60u

Overall straight bets unweighted W/L: 58-69-5, 45.7%
Overall teasers unweighted W/L: 3-3

NFL Regular season record: 62-65, 48.8%, (39-41-3 unweighted), -14.80u
CFB record: 21-31, 40.4%, (15-21-1 unweighted), -13.45u
NFLX record: 4-7-1 unweighted, -7.35u

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Just a heads up for the next time you compile the record, be sure to grade his Vikings team total this week as a 1 weight. He didn't post a weight with it, and only posted "Sorry, that was a 2 weight" after it had already won. Good work if you can get it.

[Subdivisions]

-gulp-

Look for your comped sub to end soon, obv.

[ComptrBob]

Summary through Monday, Oct. 24:

W/L: Half-wgt: 0-0, One-wgt: 42-45-4, Two-wgt: 26-26-2,
Three-wgt: 7-8-0, Four-wgt: 1-4-0
Overall weighted W/L: 119-137-8, 46.5%, -34.46u

Overall straight bets unweighted W/L: 76-83-6, 47.8%
Overall teasers unweighted W/L: 4-3

NFL Regular season record: 89-84, 51.4%, (55-52-4 unweighted), -8.76u
CFB record: 24-38, 38.7%, (17-24-1 unweighted), -18.35u
NFLX record: 4-7-1 unweighted, -7.35u

[ComptrBob]

Comped subscription still continues :)

Summary through Monday, Nov. 28:

W/L: One-wgt: 52-54-5, Two-wgt: 31-38-4,
Three-wgt: 13-12-0, Four-wgt: 1-6-0
Overall weighted W/L: 157-190-13, 45.2%, -56.11u

Overall straight bets unweighted W/L: 97-110-9, 46.9%
Overall teasers unweighted W/L: 4-4

NFL Regular season record: 118-128, 48.0%, (73-76-7 unweighted), -31.71u
CFB record: 27-38, 41.5%, (18-24-1 unweighted), -15.35u
CFL record: 6-7, 46.2%, (2-3-0 unweighted), -1.70u
NFLX record: 4-7-1 unweighted, -7.35u

[ComptrBob]

College RSW bets have been decided.

Likely wins: Dolphins UN, Chiefs UN, Lions OV
Likely losses: Raiders UN, Browns OV
Wins: Ore St UN, Iowa UN, Ala OV
Losses: 49ers UN, Chargers OV, LSU UN

Summary EV: NFL: -7.75u, CFB: +1.80u


Fezzik NFL season bets
Date Bet Team____________ O/U Value ML Wgt W/L W-Prob T-Prob Bet EV
9/7 Giants season wins.. UN 9 -110 1 6-5 59.0% 12.0% 1.10 0.27
8/28 Chargers vs Falcons RSW 1 -140 0 4-7 4.0% 10.0% 0.00 0.00
8/27 49ers season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 9-2 0.0% 0.0% 1.20 -1.20
8/27 Chiefs season wins.. UN 7.5 -110 1 4-7 76.0% 0.0% 1.10 0.50
8/27 Dolphins season wins.. UN 7.5 -120 1 3-8 99.0% 0.0% 1.20 0.98
8/27 Lions season wins…….. OV 7.5 -150 1 7-4 99.1% 0.0% 1.50 0.98
8/24 Chargers season wins.. OV 10 -150 2 4-7 0.0% 0.0% 3.00 -3.00
8/22 Browns season wins.. OV 6.5 -145 3 4-7 17.0% 0.0% 4.35 -3.10
8/21 Raiders season wins.. UN 7 -160 2 7-4 0.0% 1.0% 3.20 -3.17
TOTAL -7.75

Fezzik CFB season bets
9/1 LSU season wins,,,,,,,,, UN 9.5 -160 2 12-0 0.0% 0.0% 3.20 -3.20
8/25 ORE ST season wins… UN 6.5 -130 2 3-9 100.0% 0.0% 2.60 2.00
7/30 ALABAMA season wins OV 10 -125 2 11-1 100.0% 0.0% 2.50 2.00
7/28 IOWA season wins…….. UN 8 -135 1 7-5 100.0% 0.0% 1.35 1.00
TOTAL 1.80

[Heimie]

Bengals RSW was never a official release?

[ComptrBob]

Bengals RSW was never a official release?

Not posted at LVA.

I know there was discussion of how the MGM beat Cantor to releasing season win totals and they got bopped to the UNDER 7.5.

[Heimie]

Not posted at LVA.

I know there was discussion of how the MGM beat Cantor to releasing season win totals and they got bopped to the UNDER 7.5.

Truly amazing....he was all over the place 'puffing' how bad
the opener was, maybe one of the worst he's seen and he didn't
even give it out at '7'!?

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

That way he can freeroll. If Bengals un7.5 wins, he can gloat about how he knew it was a horrible release, but since it will likely lose, he can say "Not an official play."

It's the same way that when he released Bodog props last year, Anthony said "These props are just suggestions" and Fezzik admitted on EOG last week the Bodog props were just recommendations, not official picks, but because he won 8 units on them he includes them in his record.

Considering Fezzik doesn't even bet some of the stuff he releases to his service and doesn't even know what picks he releases some of the time, it's possible he just forgot to give out a Bengals under. A few weeks ago John Kelly asked Fezzik for his best play of the week to give out on the radio, and Fezzik said he'd give it to JK after he released the play to his service. He then told JK Seattle was his best play of the week. EOG posters were talking about Fezzik's play of the week and I said "Did he really give out Seattle as his play of the week, he didn't release that to his service?"

A few days later, Fezzik replied "I didn't give out Seattle, I told JK he could give it out" (huh?), made up some excuse about "Sharp market forces telling him Seattle wasn't such a great play" and then he posted it to his service as his 3rd or 4th highest rated play of the week. But the simple fact was that he never gave out Seattle until several days after the EOG show, and was pretty clearly making up excuses to justify why he forgot to give it to the service. Prior to the EOG radio thing, he'd already given out a few 3 and 4 weights, so if these "sharp market forces" really existed he would have given out some play other than Seattle that he'd already released.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

For the benefit of any members of the Fezzik family who wish to read his updated record, here's the latest record as posted to LVA by ComptrBob a few days ago:

Summary through Monday, Jan. 2, includes rsw amounts in overall units:

W/L: One-wgt: 55-63-6, Two-wgt: 51-55-5,
Three-wgt: 17-19-0, Four-wgt: 1-7-0
Overall weighted W/L: 212-258-16, 45.1%, -85.36u

Overall straight bets unweighted W/L: 124-144-11, 46.3%
Overall teasers unweighted W/L: 4-5
Overall parlays unweighted W/L: 0-3

NFL Regular season record: 171-185, 48.0%, (99-106-13 unweighted), -44.11u
NFL Regular season win totals: 3-5-1 unweighted, -8.75u

CFB record: 29-48, 37.7%, (19-28-1 unweighted), -25.25u
CFB Regular season win totals: 3-1 unweighted, +1.80u

CFL record: 6-7, 46.2%, (2-3-0 unweighted), -1.70u
NFLX record: 4-7-1 unweighted, -7.35u

[AndyFezzik]

I tend to think 2011 is an anomaly since every other year Fezzik was tracked he may not have been a unit winner (depends who you talk to) but he was at least well above 50%+ weighted and, in 2008 and 2009, he had the long string of exceptional performances in major handicapping contests.

Perhaps there were just some factors in his life that made it difficult to stay focused this year.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I tend to think 2011 is an anomaly since every other year Fezzik was tracked he may not have been a unit winner (depends who you talk to)

No, it does not depend on who you talk to. His 2009 picks are still readily available on the LVA paid site and PC linked the forum post to every single pick. He's down over 100 units in the current LVA paid format. 2005, the last year he ran a service, was similarly brutal.

but he was at least well above 50%+ weighted

Not even close. Over his entire career of running a tout service vs WA lines, he is an overall loser, which includes his "discovery" period of 54.5% on SSB, and actually helps him because it excludes his performance on BJ21.com before Wong started SSB, which even his fanboys admitted was a small loss.

and, in 2008 and 2009, he had the long string of exceptional performances in major handicapping contests.

Which is completely irrelevant to the discussion. He also apparently had a long string of exceptional performances at 1/2 NLHE that he likes to bring into the equation whenever his sports betting prowess is questioned. Dude wins the Hilton in 2009 and loses 15 units for the subscribers to his tout service despite ridiculously NWA lines, that's all you need to know.

Perhaps there were just some factors in his life that made it difficult to stay focused this year.

Unless Evita has some non-human short gestation, perhaps Fezzwick should have known he had "other factors" in the pipeline that made it absurd for him to expect to improve his performance from flipping coins to 55%, merely because he was charging $1000/year.

Regardless of how you want to spin the assertions of his net worth, either he's full of shit as to his net worth, or he's full of shit as to how much $1000/year changes his motivations to do better as a tout. The hilarious part is that even his biggest fanboys insist that his service still has value because he grandfathered people in at $200/year if they renewed quickly, which is completely dichotomous to Fezzwick's claims that the money would make him put forth an increased effort.

In any event, I hope your TV is tuned to ESPN2 tomorrow night for your game because there's going to be an interesting sign in range of a bunch of cameras.

[ComptrBob]

Summary through Monday, Jan. 23:

W/L: One-wgt: 57-64-6, Two-wgt: 56-60-6,
Three-wgt: 19-19-1, Four-wgt: 1-7-0
Overall weighted W/L: 230-269-21, 46.1%, -81.06u

Overall straight bets unweighted W/L: 133-150-13, 47.0%
Overall teasers unweighted W/L: 4-5
Overall parlays unweighted W/L: 0-3

NFL Season + Playoffs record: 189-196, 49.1%, (108-112-15 unweighted), -39.81u
NFL Regular season win totals: 3-5-1 unweighted, -8.75u

CFB record: 29-48, 37.7%, (19-28-1 unweighted), -25.25u
CFB Regular season win totals: 3-1 unweighted, +1.80u

CFL record: 6-7, 46.2%, (2-3-0 unweighted), -1.70u
NFLX record: 4-7-1 unweighted, -7.35u

[Subdivisions]

But where's the f#^$@!g hockey!?

[Subdivisions]

In any event, I hope your TV is tuned to ESPN2 tomorrow night for your game because there's going to be an interesting sign in range of a bunch of cameras.



Details? YouTube?

[ComptrBob]

Breakdown of Fezzik's record (not including Teasers, parlays, CFL and NFLX):

NFL Game Sides: 40-47-5,,, -38.06u
NFL Game Totals: 26-25-0,,, +8.00u
NFL Team Totals: 6-2-0,,, +7.50u
NFL Props .... : 6-6-1,,, -1.30u
NFL Halfs .... : 7-7-1,,, -3.30u
NFL Qtrs .... : 19-17-4,,, -5.75u

CFB Game Sides: 8-15-0,,, -19.10u
CFB Game Totals: 5-8-0,,, -6.40u
CFB Halfs ....: 6-5-1,,, +0.25u

[ComptrBob]

Final record for 2011-12 football season (also corrected a previous error in weighted records):

W/L: One-wgt: 57-65-6, Two-wgt: 57-62-6,
Three-wgt: 22-19-1, Four-wgt: 2-7-0, Five-wgt: 1-0-0
Overall weighted W/L: 250-274-21, 47.7%, -66.36u

Overall straight bets unweighted W/L: 139-153-13, 47.6%
Overall teasers unweighted W/L: 4-5
Overall parlays unweighted W/L: 0-3

NFL Season + Playoffs record: 223-226, 49.7%, (114-115-11 unweighted), -25.11u
NFL Regular season win totals: 3-5-1 unweighted, -8.75u

CFB record: 29-52, 35.8%, (19-28-1 unweighted), -25.25u
CFB Regular season win totals: 3-1 unweighted, +1.80u

CFL record: 6-7, 46.2%, (2-3-0 unweighted), -1.70u
NFLX record: 4-7-1 unweighted, -7.35u

[The Chaperone]

He really crushed the 5-weights.

[Subdivisions]

He really crushed the 5-weights.



I look for the "5-0 on five weights last season!1!!1" in early July from Andy.