Dreamer's Service Plays Inc.

[Username]

http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/nba/index.cgi/read/12959

Who's next?

[PerpetualCzech]

This is a real head-scratcher. If you can find winners on your own, why reach out to a group? Just bet the damn plays yourself and win! And surely there are better ways to get connected than posting to the public? Reminds me of the time someone posted over at LVA looking for an agent.

Buyer beware would be my advice.

[PerpetualCzech]

Here's my question to Dreamer:

What exactly does a group offer to you that you are in need of?

[daringly]

This is a real head-scratcher. If you can find winners on your own, why reach out to a group? Just bet the damn plays yourself and win! And surely there are better ways to get connected than posting to the public? Reminds me of the time someone posted over at LVA looking for an agent.

Buyer beware would be my advice.

It's easy to win. It's harder to win a lot. Working in a group has tons of advantages.

It is an odd way to "reach out" though.

[Santo]

Identities would be one guess... Living in the midwest, with a reasonably small IP range, I'd guess his type of plays are watched carefully from new accounts.

[Jon in Oakland]

Identities would be one guess... Living in the midwest, with a reasonably small IP range, I'd guess his type of plays are watched carefully from new accounts.

Dreamer always spoke like getting around those kinds of things was no problem.

[ahearnb]

I agree that this is shocking to read from Dreamer.

And surely there are better ways to get connected than posting to the public? Reminds me of the time someone posted over at LVA looking for an agent.
No kidding. Wouldn't you already have an idea of who you wanted to work with and maybe PM them? Strange indeed.

Daringly, could you elaborate on your post? I've never really understood how working in a group is better for the guy who knows it all (Dreamer). You're just splitting the pie up further, and if getting down is a problem, the less splits the better. Also, if you could give a rough idea about how much "a lot" is, that would be helpful. Thanks.

[TJMAXX]

he's made 200 plays in the past three years-- I make about the same number of plays in about 4 weeks. [yawn]

I'm generally with daringly, however, most the stuff I do is with very few people -- its damn easy to get burned when you start playing with real sums money.

[Jeff Jones]

The name "Dreamer" finally becomes self-explanatory.

I've met him. He is a very nice guy, and very Sharp. Like most Sharps, he is a a little full of himself.

He evidently is killing SSB, while the SSB house "Sharps" have been charging the marks for coin flips season after season, year after year.

Dreamer meets the first public requirement for public-posting Sharp respect: he posts and documents picks.

And he apparently is doing well. Excellent. I'd advise him to stick to what he is doing. It's a nice life.

But this giant leap to taking a winning Internet record to advising "world syndicates" is probably a little ambitious and premature. I mean really, "Dreamer, Wo Fat is on the line from Beijing! He needs your Salamanders pick tonight!"

Pride goeth before a fall: We all should probably get in line.

[Santo]

If I ran an operation with sufficient revenue I would likely hire him, not because of his picks, but because I'm thoroughly convinced he is able to analyse edges in "new markets" far more efficiently than anyone else I've met who is offering his services.

That said if I had him, I'd probably put him to work on things like Cricket / Tennis spread betting as opposed to the US sports. I think they have better long-term potential.

[Jeff Jones]

If I ran an operation with sufficient revenue I would likely hire him, not because of his picks, but because I'm thoroughly convinced he is able to analyse edges in "new markets" far more efficiently than anyone else I've met who is offering his services.

That said if I had him, I'd probably put him to work on things like Cricket / Tennis spread betting as opposed to the US sports. I think they have better long-term potential.


Did I mention getting in the Pride line?

[martidani]

Dreamer is an extremely intelligent person and a nice guy. However, he is a gross underbettor and now that he has a child, this moves makes perfect sense. Some of us are just not meant to fire the barrels. While others (bullet, fury, chaperone) are partially sick and don't mind firing the barrels. If I had a wife and kids I would personally take the dreamer route and bet with a ROR of .00005%. Variance is a bitch.

[WarDekar]

Variance, Schmariance... Let's GAMBOOOOOOL

[Prop Man]

I can see why he'd want to look for an arrangement or partnership. People's perception of risk are different, there's often not a right or wrong, just difference in risk aversion. He could also possibly be thinking a partnership will actually give him a chance of higher reward while also reducing his own risk...a double whammy on the good side.

[LVHCM1]

Dreamer is an extremely intelligent person and a nice guy. However, he is a gross underbettor and now that he has a child, this moves makes perfect sense.

I'm not questioning his motives, as he probably has a reasonable explanation, but I'm pretty sure his kid is at least 10.

Some of us are just not meant to fire the barrels. While others (bullet, fury, chaperone) are partially sick and don't mind firing the barrels. If I had a wife and kids I would personally take the dreamer route and bet with a ROR of .00005%. Variance is a bitch.

LOL, I don't know Chappy personally, but spot on with the other two.

[The Chaperone]

I don't know who bullet and fury are, but they sound like nice guys...

[PerpetualCzech]

Variance is a bitch.

Variance is (or should be) a non-issue to someone who knows what edge they are playing with. Dreamer has a tough sell here to his new partners because the more he tries to convince them that he knows what edge he is playing with, the less it will appear that he should need them.

It's just the age-old question one asks a tout (why do you need to sell your picks when you can just bet them?), just in a slightly altered form.

[PerpetualCzech]

He could also possibly be thinking a partnership will actually give him a chance of higher reward while also reducing his own risk...a double whammy on the good side.

The only way I can see that happening for him is if he gets some kind of a freeroll. I don't see how he gets higher reward with less risk without one.

[kimlee]

1) Why aren't people flaming him? I'm not saying he deserves it. But touts usually get criticized at LVASports, and Dreamer is reknown for image-post flames.

2) Why isn't Jeff Jones researching his record? Dreamer reports 59% for the last year at SSB, but has posted for years at LVASports.

3) Maybe he is just a starving student from Hicksville. Then it's not worth maintaining databases and betting five sports to hit 54% on 200 picks per year. But somebody who is already paying for a line service could easily shop the picks up to 55%+.

4) On the other hand he wrote:
My sportsbetting career has evolved greatly over the last 9 years. ... Basically betting tons of +EV bets with a small overall edge.
Dreamer's Sportsbetting Career So Far (http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/nba/index.cgi/read/12520)

I don`t have a documented record but I do have a Jaguar in the driveway which I just paid cash for. ... you actually have to have REAL money to make a wager.
Dreamer's Jaguar (http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/forum/messageview.cfm?catid=36&threadid=164702&FTVAR_MSGDBTABLE=)

And he does present himself as a jetsetter:
LOL, you live in Indiana and I am a citizen of two countries. ... I have accounts in six states ... .
Dreamer on International Taxes (http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/forum/messageview.cfm?catid=36&threadid=272504&FTVAR_MSGDBTABLE=&STARTPAGE=3)

It's quite a paradox. The most argumentative image-poster doesn't get flamed for being simultaneously a poor student and international man of mystery.

[Prop Man]

The only way I can see that happening for him is if he gets some kind of a freeroll. I don't see how he gets higher reward with less risk without one.


I was thinking he could bet bigger if he had access to markets (books) he doesnt' have access to now. Those markets may present new positive EV bets that he can't bet into. One thing I've found is that some books cut players off on certain wagers (props/futures is one, teasers/parlays is another) while allowing them to keep their accounts. If this happened at enough books to Dreamer, it could mean he is now seeing resistance in getting some bets down and could use new avenues to bet them. Maybe that's not the case, but I think that's a good example where both he and his potential new partners would benefit. The less risk part may or may not be important in that case, with enough diversified bets, the increased risk with the additional bets is minimal compared to the reward. It could also be he's looking for a partial or full freeroll (lower downside, say a downside capped at $0 or something like that), that doesn't seem all that bad in certain situations.

[kimlee]

he could bet bigger if he had access to markets (books) he doesnt' have access to now.

Then he would look for beards, not customers.

Those markets may present new positive EV bets ... props/futures is one, teasers/parlays is another ... .

His post said he handicaps games vs. widely available lines, not exotic bets.

[Prop Man]

Kim Lee, let's put it this way, there are books I can access that you could not even if you had beards. The books aren't accessible by the public, they are accessible only through "trustworthy" contacts. These books can offer different opportunities in derivative bets...as well as offer slightly different prices that make them worthwhile. Dreamer likely can't bet into these places, but he may know of them, and this is one way to get access to them.

On the main point though, yes, it could be that he's just trying to free roll. I don't think that's a horrible thing either. But he could also be looking to expand. I don't live in LV, but I do work with others there. If I didn't work with them, I wouldn't have access to LV markets. Dreamer may not have access to LV either if he's not in partnership with someone physically there. Through my partnerships, I also have gained access to books I wouldn't be able to get on my own (Pin for one)....and get to do odd things that I wouldn't have even thought possible until I saw the options.

[Jeff Jones]

Kim Lee, let's put it this way, there are books I can access that you could not even if you had beards. The books aren't accessible by the public, they are accessible only through "trustworthy" contacts. These books can offer different opportunities in derivative bets...as well as offer slightly different prices that make them worthwhile. Dreamer likely can't bet into these places, but he may know of them, and this is one way to get access to them.



See what I mean?

More "anonymity-on-anonymity" Sharp-hate. Metro might have to start up a Sharp hate-crime unit before it gets out of control.

Anonymous Sharp #1 explains to the website how big a deal he is. There is no name, and no details. He throws in some dazzling stuff about derivative bets and he ascends to the top of the ASWH (Anonymous Sharp World Heirarchy).

In the Anonymous Internet Sharp-World that's all you need!!

Now the next guy will have to post that he has bigger contacts, a few on Saturn and a couple on Xerxes, and the "My daddy can beat up your daddy" pageant will continue.

You gotta hand it to this Dreamer thang. If we didn't have his motives to analyze, scrutinize, prioritize, and dissect in order to offer him counsel, we'd have no posts at all.

LOL.

[kimlee]

Here is my tabulation of Dreamer's SSB record. I used the Search feature and copied records from the headers of his old posts, but did not read the posts. I matched numbers with no important differences compared to his summary of most recent season performance in NFL, CFB, NBA, and CBB. My numbers also matched his earlier three-year summary of NFL and CFB. But I had no double-check on the 2002-3 NFL or historical NBA, CBB, MLB, NHL, and WNBA. In some cases he didn't use a -110 line, so the units can't be calculated from win-loss.

Sport Post Date Wins Losses Units
NFL 2/1/2009 13 7 4.95
NFL 1/12/2008 25 22 0.6
NFL 1/1/2007 22 18 2.2
NFL 1/26/2003 85 81 -4.1
CFB 1/6/2009 46 39 3.1
CFB 1/2/2008 64 55 3.5
CFB 12/2/2006 103 96 -2.6
CFB 12/3/2005 66 57 3.3
NBA 2/11/2009 39 20 17
NBA 4/4/2008 21 21 -2.1
NBA 12/2/2006 31 31 -3.1
NBA 12/14/2005 54 53 -4.3
NBA 2/7/2005 93 97 -13.7
CBB 2/10/2009 20 13 5.7
CBB 12/14/2005 80 82 -10.8
CBB 2/7/2005 112 109 -7.9
MLB 4/3/2008 2 3 -1.2
MLB 8/30/2004 1 3 -2.2
MLB 8/15/2003 345 364 7.85
NHL 10/17/2005 12 4 8.1
WNBA 8/14/2003 12 20 -12.2

Total Total 1246 1195 -7.9
[Edited to include 2/10/2009 CBB and add up Total)

[Jeff Jones]

This is the problem with documentation. It rarely ends well.

[Prop Man]

JJ, I'm simply explaining something to KL that he may not know about since he's not an active sports bettor on a daily basis (I may be wrong about that, if I am he can correct me). Its not bragging or trying to be uber-sharp at all. Would it be better if I had put it in a third person form? Something like
------------
Kim Lee, let's put it this way, there are books some people can access that you could not even if you had beards. The books aren't accessible by the public, they are accessible only through "trustworthy" contacts. These books can offer different opportunities in derivative bets...as well as offer slightly different prices that make them worthwhile. Dreamer likely can't bet into these places, but he may know of them, and this is one way to get access to them.
--------------

Does one frigging pronoun change mean that much to you? Whether you choose to believe it or not is up to you of course. For all you know I could be making it up, for all you know, you know every book and every market that's out there. Or maybe you don't.


KL - nice documentation. I don't know how long or where you got the info from, but I'll assume its accurate.

[Jeff Jones]

JJ, I'm simply explaining something to KL that he may not know about since he's not an active sports bettor on a daily basis (I may be wrong about that, if I am he can correct me). Its not bragging or trying to be uber-sharp at all. Would it be better if I had put it in a third person form? Something like
------------
Kim Lee, let's put it this way, there are books some people can access that you could not even if you had beards. --------------

Does one frigging pronoun change mean that much to you? Whether you choose to believe it or not is up to you of course. For all you know I could be making it up, for all you know, you know every book and every market that's out there. Or maybe you don't.


KL - nice documentation. I don't know how long or where you got the info from, but I'll assume its accurate.

Boy, can you set up a strawman. The point is I don't care if you claim it yourself or say "some people", it's still all anonymous, undocumented Internet one-upmanship. Your braggadocio is totally void of any support.

I have to stop now. I must go polish my OLympic gold medals, my Oscars and Emmys, and my two blue ribbons for lemon pie at the Dallas County Fair.

[Prop Man]

LOL. You think I'm going to tell you to call Joe Blow at 718-555-5555 to get an account set up with the South Korean guys where you can lay -105 and only get dealt whole pointspreads on every game, half and quarter, and to send a guy to Guam every three months to get paid/or paid in gold coins? Now why would I give you those specific details. If it isn't obvious to you why anonymity is important in this field, then I don't know what to say.

[Jeff Jones]

LOL. You think I'm going to tell you to call Joe Blow at 718-555-5555 to get an account set up with the South Korean guys where you can lay -105 and only get dealt whole pointspreads on every game, half and quarter, and to send a guy to Guam every three months to get paid/or paid in gold coins? Now why would I give you those specific details. If it isn't obvious to you why anonymity is important in this field, then I don't know what to say.

So, if you're going to be anonymous, and you're not going to give us any details, much less specific details, are you just here to tell us how good you are?

[Prop Man]

OK, let's play your game. If I'm anonymous, and I tell you how good I am, who does that serve? Tell me how that benefits me. If you think its for my own ego, then fine...why does that bother you or hurt you in any way? I mean, can't you just read the posts and after a few of them say to yourself "Hmm,, this guy, even if anonymous, may be worth reading."...or..."this guy is anonymous, but his handle is the same...and its all bullshit all the time, whatever bullshit that comes out is worthless".

It should be up to you to read things accordingly and make up your opinoins that way. I know I have made up my opinoins about what other anonymous posters have to say, some I completely ignore, others I'll read carefully as the info may actually be good. If that doesn't work for you....then that's too bad.

[Jeff Jones]

OK, let's play your game. If I'm anonymous, and I tell you how good I am, who does that serve? Tell me how that benefits me. If you think its for my own ego, then fine....

OK, fine. Sums it up.

[Prop Man]

very good. let's move on.

[Jeff Jones]

very good. let's move on.

Absolutely. Contribute what you can.

Nobody needs to reveal the keys to the kingdom, and, at the same time, nobody needs to go bigtime.

[Craps Master]

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/4811/pffkrkewurhj6.jpg

[Jeff Jones]

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/4811/pffkrkewurhj6.jpg

I've owned two Jaguars ( 1959 Mark 11 and 1962 XKE) in my life, back when Jaguar was owned by British Leyland in the heyday of British sportcars (MGA, MGB, Triumph, Austin-Healy).

Beautiful cars, but mechanical disasters. I never want to hear the term "Lucas Electrical System" again.

I'm into Hondas and Toyotas now. I don't need a mechanic on retainer.

[Craps Master]

Really, Jeff? Fascinating.

[Jeff Jones]

Uh, yeah Crapsmaster.

Thanks for your contribution of a pasted picture as your initial post. You are now up to 3 posts and no doubt the target poster here that Jon and Perp want..

You can't make it up.

[martidani]

I really think your info is outdated Kim Lee. I don't think Dreamer can possibly be a student anymore. He should have gotten the same title as you a while back, but I haven't talked to him in a long time so I can't confirm whether he is a student (doubt it).

I know one thing, if I was interested in betting and beating sports I would invest 50K for dreamer to double it up. If an aggresive maniac (a la chappy) had access to some of the stuff dreamer has access to, they would run up 50K into a million within a year. Again, the man has the tools. Dreamer is just a gross underbettor. We have sat at the same casino table before and had 10%+ edge and he would not fire the barrels. And I don't see why he can't be a gross underbettor, my buddy honcho once said he needed 500 units to play 1cp (when in reality 100 is fine and 200 is safe). And we all know the book himself use to grind it before the bullet unleashed the beast within.

As for his record, until probably 2006 I believe he always said he was a coin flipper. Apparently he discovered some stuff in the last couple of years that makes him believe he can win versus WA lines and thus his record in his sales pitch is only for the last two years. If he says he can beat WA lines now, I believe him and would only count his record for the last couple of years. But sports betting is fucked up. I would only ever consider it if I could get 100 plays per day at 5% or better. I just played 60000 hands of poker the last three weeks and broke even. I am about to jump off a cliff. With fulltime sportsbetting, I shoot myself within 6 months. Variance is a bitch and dreamer doesn't want to get owned.

[Jeff Jones]

I really think your info is outdated Kim Lee.

I know one thing, if I was interested in betting and beating sports I would invest 50K for dreamer to double it up. If an aggresive maniac (a la chappy) had access to some of the stuff dreamer has access to, they would run up 50K into a million within a year. .

Can I just die now?

We have passed stupid, passed ultra-stupid and moved into total nonsense.

Dreamer could double your money up? But "Chappy" could produce that amount by twenty times?

You just have to stop laying this poster material in my lap.

Some of you are total idiots.

[Jeff Jones]

It gets beyond stupid. I give them tonight's winner, and they go crazy (or mum) to deny it. Perpcheck misfires. I don't care

It was a guess. I have no possible genious of the sports-gambling genius that awaits you.

We are down to Martandini/ CrapsMaster/PropsMan. Why don't I just pick them up outside of 7-11 to clean my pool?

They are posting and they are not happy.

[MadLib]

JJ, you are clearly correct here. Every one of these people is a fraud, none of them actually win (nobody does), and it's best to tune out what they have to say.

I know it's my experience that if there is something I don't know/can't do, then nobody else can either.

[Prop Man]

I drive a Camry. My previous car was a Saturn.

[The Chaperone]

Camrys are good cars. I also recommend Hyundais. I currently drive a Sonata, but I think there are some newer models that are nicer.

[kimlee]

your info is outdated ... Dreamer is just a gross underbettor.

As for his record, until probably 2006 ... he was a coin flipper.


Let me clarify to avoid unintended inferences. I wrote "Maybe he is poor ... or international man of mystery" just to illustrate the peculiar nature of Dreamer's post. I'm not revealing any private information or endorsing any conclusions.

Anybody can easily replicate my tabulation by clicking on the SSB archives and using the Search feature. I overlooked 2/10/2009 CBB 20-13 +5.7 units because it was on the NBA page, but don't see anything else there. Also, my previous win-loss-unit sum omitted the 1/26/2003 NFL loss -4.1 units. These two adjustments bring Dreamers lifetime SSB record to 1246-1195, total -7.9 units. Basically Dreamer lost regularly until last year, then won last football season and won the present partial basketball season.

I would only ever consider [sportsbetting] if I could get 100 plays per day at 5% or better.

With a $2K max, that would be $10K per day. Supermodel Naomi Campbell famously said she wouldn't get out of bed for that.

[PerpetualCzech]

If an aggresive maniac (a la chappy) had access to some of the stuff dreamer has access to, they would run up 50K into a million within a year.

Assume you are betting half Kelly and hitting 53% against -105 lines. You'd need in the range of 5000 plays to grow your BR x20. Never mind that the deeper you go your edge starts to erode as your betsize grows. It sounds like you are trying to help Dreamer out here with a bit of advertising but associating him with hyperbole like this doesn't do him any favours.

Having said that, the fact that he is an excessive underbettor makes this move by him a lot more sensible. I know other bettors like this: they know their edge but just can't psychologically handle the swings and therefore don't make near as much as they are capable of.

Dreamer's looking for a freeroll. Might be a bit of a tough sell given the numbers KL posted, but it sounds like the kind of a deal best suited for him given the type of bettor he is.

[Craps Master]

Assume you are betting half Kelly and hitting 53% against -105 lines. You'd need in the range of 5000 plays to grow your BR x20. Never mind that the deeper you go your edge starts to erode as your betsize grows. It sounds like you are trying to help Dreamer out here with a bit of advertising but associating him with hyperbole like this doesn't do him any favours.

Can someone explain to me why Chaperone would be betting at half-Kelly instead of full-Kelly? That seems kind of conservative.

[WarDekar]

Can someone explain to me why Chaperone would be betting at half-Kelly instead of full-Kelly? That seems kind of conservative.

I'm (seriously) not sure if you're being serious or not, but the reason sports bettors typically bet half-kelly is because often times it's easy to overestimate edge, or for example you might lose the edge you had a particular kind of bet and if you were betting full-kelly you'd be broke by the time you realized the market has changed.

Full-kelly is fine when you can quantify your edge exactly (a la counting in BJ for instance, which I'm sure Chap bet full-kelly when he played, up to a certain point of course because of limits/barring/cover), unfortunately sports is not such a thing that you know your exact edge at all times.

[kimlee]

[W]hy Chaperone would be betting at half-Kelly instead of full-Kelly?

From some of his posts you would suspect Chappy bets double-Kelly! But Kelly can be pretty aggressive.

The Chappy example offers an instructive contrast. People are risk-averse because the extra money they might win does not make them as happy as the extra money they might lose. Chappy is a frugal near-millionaire who drives a Hyundai. You would presume he would be cautious because he doesn't crave an expensive lifestyle. Yet he bets aggressively because he is confident of winning. Dreamer posts about being an international citizen and buying a Jaguar. So you would presume that Dreamer would bet aggressively to get money for travel and cars. Dreamer characterized his record against widely available lines as 59.69% and said his strong opinions win better than 54%. He said has had a nine-year sportsbetting career, makes "tons of bets with small edge" in addition to "high edge stuff". Yet Dreamer is an underbettor?

Dreamer's lifetime record is negative. Last season he won 3.1 units in CFB, 4.95 units in NFL, and 5.7 units in only 20 partial-season CBB picks. Then he won 17 units in 59 partial-season NBA picks and announced on the NBA page that he wants to be a tout.

[WarDekar]

He said has had a nine-year sportsbetting career, makes "tons of bets with small edge" in addition to "high edge stuff". Yet Dreamer is an underbettor?

Tons of bets with small edge = he bonus whored and exploited weak derivative markets

High edge stuff = correlated parlays, +100 teasers, IF bets, etc.

Incidentally, most these opportunities are gone, particularly for anyone with a large BR (as one would suppose Dreamer would have to pay for a Jag in cash)

Thus, this leads us to:

Dreamer's lifetime record is negative. Last season he won 3.1 units in CFB, 4.95 units in NFL, and 5.7 units in only 20 partial-season CBB picks. Then he won 17 units in 59 partial-season NBA picks and announced on the NBA page that he wants to be a tout.

It should be obvious that the combination of BR growth and shrinking opportunities in general has led to this result. Keep posting plays vs. WA lines, eventually run hot, sell picks since you can't beat it for the return you expect.

[MadLib]

Full-kelly is fine when you can quantify your edge exactly (a la counting in BJ for instance, which I'm sure Chap bet full-kelly when he played, up to a certain point of course because of limits/barring/cover), unfortunately sports is not such a thing that you know your exact edge at all times.

Nobody counting cards with any kind of bankroll is betting full Kelly. I think he said he was betting 1/3 Kelly, but half Kelly would be plausible also.

[WarDekar]

I said before the BR became an issue because of cover play, barring, limits, etc. Obviously when you have 7 figures it's a little tough to be spreading full-kelly at a blackjack table (I would assume of course, I don't play BJ), and the variance would probably be a little too much too :)

I want to say he may have even bet over full-kelly at the very beginning. My point was when you can quantify an edge to something exact such as counting in BJ you can bet full-kelly.

Apparently you started to read the parenthetical phrase, but then stopped.

[PerpetualCzech]

Nobody counting cards with any kind of bankroll is betting full Kelly.

Just curious, why? Is it because table limits are generally too small or is it for some other reason?

[Jafar]

Probably not the table limits. You can find a decent game with very high limits at certain casinos.

It is what Kelly would dictate you spread that makes it difficult. Obviously you bet the table minimum when you have no edge but what about when the count is very high? Try spreading 10:1 with purple chips and see how long the casino wants your action.

[MadLib]

Nothing to do with cover considerations - you guys are seriously underestimating the variance of a straight count game at blackjack.

Full Kelly has a 13.5% ROR, half Kelly is 1.8% while keeping a large part of the EV. I believe a majority of those who play BJ with non-replenishable six figure banks play to 1/3 Kelly.

[kimlee]

[Dreamer] bonus whored and exploited ... correlated ... opportunities [that] are gone. Thus, this leads us to:

Keep posting plays vs. WA lines, eventually run hot, sell picks since you can't beat it for the return you expect.

The benign interpretation is that he is a misguided lifetime loser who believes he can win going forward and has no money left to bet. Your sinister interpretation says he won on other stuff and now wants to sell picks that he knows are worthless.

BR became an issue because of cover play, barring, limits.

Cover play increases required bankroll, betting limits reduce required bankroll, and barring eliminates the need for any bankroll. Blackjack frequently offers a 2% edge, and occasionally a 5% edge. No Vegas property allows bets above $50K, so any 7-figure bankroll is limited. MGM actually turned away Kerry Packer after he started betting $100K on every blackjack spot.

If you consider future discretionary income then Chappy's early betting was pretty reasonable.

[WarDekar]

I meant when his BR got large he couldn't be spreading from min-max (whether or not limits were involved), and thus had to use cover play to prevent from being barred. I wasn't saying anything about how that affected what BR he needed, but that with a larger BR you can't bet full kelly even if you wanted to for those reasons. (Although as it turns out you wouldn't want to anyway apparently) I guess I know how sick variance sports betting has, but I haven't played professional BJ to have any idea what that would be like (thank god)

And yeah I obviously didn't know the ROR was that high, don't play BJ.

As for Dreamer, I don't necessarily believe that "he knows [the picks] are worthless" - I do believe he may *think* they have some value, but I also believe that he thinks (knows) they are incredibly marginal if they are any better than flipping (well, Dreamer likes to say no one can beat WA lines then of course he says he can... I guess he's a nobody) and thus doesn't feel comfortable putting a lot of risk on them and thus wants someone else to bite the bullet, using his 9 years of sports betting acumen as evidence why he's worthy of being invested in/partnered with (but of course he continues to contradict himself all the time by posting no one can beat WA lines going forward, in major markets)


If you consider future discretionary income then Chappy's early betting was pretty reasonable.

Of course, I didn't mean to insinuate otherwise, I was actually saying it was smart to bet over full-kelly for that reason. It's pretty easy to replenish a few grand, not so much a few hundred...

[Craps Master]

The benign interpretation is that he is a misguided lifetime loser who believes he can win going forward and has no money left to bet. Your sinister interpretation says he won on other stuff and now wants to sell picks that he knows are worthless.
I don't understand where you get off criticizing other people for their gambling behavior when you, yourself, are not even six-figure lifetime winner. You're just some guy with a job who doesn't actually engage in much advantage play but who somehow manages to talk more shit than anyone else. You probably don't even drive a Jaguar.

Maybe we should make some benign and sinister interpretations about you?

This is no way is meant to demean your efforts of outing Dreamer as some sort of hack tout but, seriously, it's not like you're any better or that you're any kind of authority on professional gambling or would be equipped to rate his ability as a gambler. You're just some armchair gambler trying to call shots on the sidelines. That, sir, is weak.

[Craps Master]

I'm (seriously) not sure if you're being serious or not, but the reason sports bettors typically bet half-kelly is because often times it's easy to overestimate edge, or for example you might lose the edge you had a particular kind of bet and if you were betting full-kelly you'd be broke by the time you realized the market has changed.

You make it sound like Chaperone has no balls and constantly doubts himself. Where did you get that idea?

[PerpetualCzech]

Full Kelly has a 13.5% ROR, half Kelly is 1.8%

I don't get this. How can a Kelly-based betting model have any Risk of Ruin? (assuming that's what ROR stands for?)

[WarDekar]

Well I guess technically there are table minimums and at a certain point you couldn't actually spread?

I don't know I kind of thought the same thing, but I'll defer to the blackjack experts.

[WarDekar]

You make it sound like Chaperone has no balls and constantly doubts himself. Where did you get that idea?

Doubting yourself is a good thing at times...

[kimlee]

you get off criticizing other people for their gambling behavior [and] talk more shit than anyone else.

I haven't criticized any gambling behavior and didn't even start this thread. I merely tabulated Dreamer's record, quoted some posts, and provided possible interpretations. Maybe I implicitly criticized posting behavior, but mostly just presented the facts and articulated what people were already speculating.

You usually sell picks if you lack money or confidence. That means you are a loser or a charlatan, quite inconsistent with Dreamer's braggadocio.

You probably don't even drive a Jaguar.

At least I don't brag about it. First Dreamer bragged, then you posted a picture, and then Jeff Jones said he owned two. It's like three monkeys looking down on my my Lexus from an expensive Mercedes. But that expensive Mercedes is just a bus to the zoo.

[MadLib]

I don't get this. How can a Kelly-based betting model have any Risk of Ruin? (assuming that's what ROR stands for?)

Well this obviously assumes no resizing, which has practical limitations in blackjack. In common blackjack circles, you essentially have your starting BR and use that to bet size for any particular game, and the ROR is the chance of busting out vs doubling your money.

So yeah, if you start with 100K and bet full kelly and lose 50k, you would essentially be betting 2x kelly to 50k but you're kinda pretending you still have 100k. Some people do in fact downsize at certain intervals when losing (or upscale when winning), but the primary problem with that is it will obviously take longer to recover your losses since you're using a smaller unit than you used while you ran bad.

Hopefully that explains what I was talking about there.

[Craps Master]

I haven't criticized any gambling behavior and didn't even start this thread. I merely tabulated Dreamer's record, quoted some posts, and provided possible interpretations. Maybe I implicitly criticized posting behavior, but mostly just presented the facts and articulated what people were already speculating.
Those possible interpretations were loaded and suggested that he is not a competent gambler; they also were far from being Fair and Balanced. By the way, for all I know, you are not a competent gambler. You could have just posted his record and left it at that but, instead, you decided to get personal and start making ad hominem attacks and insinuations about the man. That's fine and all, but at least admit what you're doing, and then be prepared to take it on the chin for being a non-betting armchair nobody who has decided to come out swinging at someone.

You usually sell picks if you lack money or confidence. That means you are a loser or a charlatan, quite inconsistent with Dreamer's braggadocio.
There you go again. Others have suggested that Dreamer is a colossal underbettor and that, as such, this move actually makes financial sense for him. That's a possible interpretation that you seem to discard for no reason other than it is not in keeping with your agenda of going after Dreamer, probably out of some sense of vengeance for all of the times he flamed you and made you look silly at LVA.



At least I don't brag about it.
I guess I have known people who could afford Jaguars on a professor's salary, but then they also worked at more prestigious, higher paying institutions than you. Maybe if you supplemented your income with some +EV gambling wagers it would seem more plausible, but I think we both know you don't.

First Dreamer bragged, then you posted a picture, and then Jeff Jones said he owned two. It's like three monkeys looking down on my my Lexus from an expensive Mercedes. But that expensive Mercedes is just a bus to the zoo.
You obviously didn't understand the reference or even realize who the butt of that joke was. Neither did Jeff Jones. You two trying to appreciate my Mad Forum Skills and multi-level sense of humor reminds me of two monkeys trying to read Pynchon. My advice would be to stick to eating bananas, picking bugs out of each other's fur, and reading Gaming Today.

[ahearnb]

I guess I have known people who could afford Jaguars on a professor's salary, but then they also worked at more prestigious, higher paying institutions than you. Maybe if you supplemented your income with some +EV gambling wagers it would seem more plausible, but I think we both know you don't.

WOW, and you thought I was dissing you.....

[Bob Trendy]

Kim Lee is in Crap Master's dome...

OBV

[TJMAXX]

I drive an old Ford Taurus. Its a piece of shit. I blew out the engine three weeks I bought it (used off a company lease). Taurus' don't like to go 120mph. She still drives like a doosie despite sucking down oil thanks to a cheap repair job.

I offer thanks to you fine gentlemen for buying new vehicles that depreciate 50% or more within two-three years while propping up Obama's economy.

[kimlee]

Dreamer is a colossal underbettor.

The politically correct term is "underbetting American". He is really a rich and successful handicapper. He can't help betting small; it's just his sacred culture. Like Native Americans and Jews, Underbettors have been persecuted throughout history. The were called losers just because they posted losing records. They were called cowards just because they were afraid to bet their own money. All they wanted was a chance to prove themselves using other people's money. But bigots denied them a freeroll on the American Dream.

Dreamer's Jaguar:
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2031/2379504097_3cc8e9fe1e.jpg

[Craps Master]

The politically correct term is "underbetting American". He is really a rich and successful handicapper. He can't help betting small; it's just his sacred culture. Like Native Americans and Jews, Underbettors have been persecuted throughout history. The were called losers just because they posted losing records. They were called cowards just because they were afraid to bet their own money. All they wanted was a chance to prove themselves using other people's money. But bigots denied them a freeroll on the American Dream.

I think you should stick to obsessive trolling and give up on the whole humor thing. It's not working out for you.

[The Chaperone]

I don't get this. How can a Kelly-based betting model have any Risk of Ruin? (assuming that's what ROR stands for?)

This is the risk of ruin for BJ when you do NOT re-size after losing streaks (or winning streaks for that matter).

I had another issue with MadLib's post as well. Kelly is Kelly. It's true that BJ has a higher variance than straight betting -110, but the Kelly formula takes that into account. You simply bet less with a 2% edge at BJ than you would on a -110 wager with the same 2% edge. It's been a while, but I believe it's about 30% less.

[Dreamer]

.

[Mr.Smith]

I personally disagree about working with a group. Sharing information is one thing, but working with a bunch of guys who have huge egos(they all do) and having to beat by someone else's drum is a horrible way to live. Don't get me wrong, been there, done that. But it gets old and most guys are just to damn greedy. You can get just as much as you want down on anything if you have been at this game long enough. Although now with all these smart college kids getting in the way it makes it a little harder. Back when I started it was just smart street guys, now you have all the college educated egomaniac douchebags. Sorry if I offended anyone, some are not to bad(LOL) but most you just want to smack around. I can say I speak for alot of the old school guys. :)

[ahearnb]

And Dreamer still never addressed why he wants to work in a group. If you kill small markets, why give away more of the pie? Of course we are the "psychotic strange people" because we're questioning why he's trying to join a syndicate via a public message board. LOL, ok.

[TJMAXX]

Lol. Dreamer is 'killing' wnba overnight market... Any computer literate 12 year-old could beat the piss of of that market if he's given the sites where the right data is...

[Jafar]

Although now with all these smart college kids getting in the way it makes it a little harder. Back when I started it was just smart street guys, now you have all the college educated egomaniac douchebags.

Yeah, Wardekar! LOL

[Mr.Smith]

Yeah, Wardekar! LOL



Whose wardekar..is he another smart ass kid who can't scrape 2 nickels together, let alone 32k to grab a tiny scalp, that was comedy at its finest,LOL. When your ready to learn, and I doubt any one wants to deal with a smart ass punk kid these days anyway, you may have a shot. But I give you 2 years tops till you are so deep in debt that daddy will have to turn his back on you. Take care young buck.

[Dreamer]

.

[Jeff Jones]

Worrying what others are up to is really pointless and sad.

Lesson learned by me.........

D.

And so you are back.

Just shut up.

[Dreamer]

.

[Dreamer]

.

[Dreamer]

.

[ahearnb]

Virtually 100% of the stuff I have posted in public at SSB has been full game WA lines in the NFL,CFB, NBA and CBB..........

Are those the "small markets"

One of the most productive things I have done over the last 2 years has been to post far less on the internet.

I spent the wasted time and energy arguing with people over stupid pointless shit or posting stupid pictures and focused it into being a better advantage player. Worrying what others are up to is really pointless and sad.

Lesson learned by me.........

D.

Way to avoid the question.

Everyone knows you win, Dreamer. That's why they are all PMing you wanting to join your sydicate.

[PerpetualCzech]

And Dreamer still never addressed why he wants to work in a group.

Obv looking for a freeroll or some kind of backing. Glad this got bumped; that easily cracked the Top 5 of my favourite all time moments on the boards.

Looks like it didn't exactly work out (http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/nba/index.cgi/read/13477). Maybe a classfied ad was the way to go instead.

[PerpetualCzech]

There just something wonderfully symbolic about seeing Dreamer alone in a room asking aloud if someone, anyone will be his partner ... LOL

[WarDekar]

Yeah, Wardekar! LOL

Do you really want to start this again?

Talking shit about me in random threads for no reason is just going to get you even more public humiliation.

What a surprise that after you throw a hissy fit and claim you're gonna stop talking shit it takes you about 5 days to go back to talking shit out of nowhere.

Reap what you sow...

[ahearnb]

There just something wonderfully symbolic about seeing Dreamer alone in a room asking aloud if someone, anyone will be his partner ... LOL

LOL, love it.

P.S. As I don't bet in Vegas, if anybody wants to do something, give me an email.
Surely he knows that some people have accounts where you can bet twice as much at that one shop than you can get down in ALL of the Vegas sportsbooks combined, right?

And ya know, if he wasn't such a know-it-all asshole to everyone else, this thread probably wouldn't even exist.