2011 Groovin Mahoovin MLB play of the day

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

See if I can manage to keep this up the last two months of the year.

916 SF +107 (Worley/Sanchez)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Bad beat.

YTD 0-1 -1u -100%

Let's try again:

954 SF +121 (Hamels/Cain)

[Comanche]

Good news-----------seeing this thread up and running again

Bad news-------------seeing Aaron Rowand leading off and playing CF for the Giants

Bad news Part Deux-- seeing Orlando Cabrera hitting 5th

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Part Trois, of the 5 bets I've lost in the past two days, 4 were underdogs that lost by 1 run where I did not have the RL, the exception being that Sanchez pick above.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I guess I should have said Part Quatre in that the game would have been 1-1 were it not for that goofy error by the Fat Panda and then a subsequent passed ball. FWIW, I have Rowand rated only about 0.1 runs worse than Torres, and while hitting Cabrera 5th is pretty ridiculous logically, there probably isn't a huge difference in terms of EV hitting him 5th vs 7th (I'd still hit him ahead of Whiteside), despite that decision being big headscratcher.

Anyway, we move on. YTD 0-2 -2u -100% ROI

928 TEX -172 (Tomlin/Lewis)

I've been playing more favorites this year than in years past and am not sure exactly why, but I think Texas's offense, Lewis, and the new-look bullpen are all significantly better than Cleveland's offerings so I don't mind laying a heavy price here.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

FWIW I'm playing SF again, might as well go down with the ship, but it's not my strongest play of the day so not an "official pick." (For simplicity's sake with record keeping I only plan on posting one play a day.)

[kdog]

FWIW, I have Rowand rated only about 0.1 runs worse than Torres, and while hitting Cabrera 5th is pretty ridiculous logically, there probably isn't a huge difference in terms of EV hitting him 5th vs 7th (I'd still hit him ahead of Whiteside), despite that decision being big headscratcher.



I have these two even closer than that with Rowand actually a hair better vs lefties. Cabrera in the 5 hole is pretty lol though, no idea what Bochy was thinking hitting him ahead of Ross whose career splits against lefties are quite good.

[Comanche]

Guess it depends on how much weight one gives Torres' 2010 season. Kdog, I guess if we are gumming up his thread GM will let us know. :-)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I expect Torres to be around a .325/.425 player going forward, which is about on par with his past 3 seasons, and roughly on par with his preseason ZIPS and PECOTA projections. (Not a fan of the in-season ZIPS projections since they seem to badly overweight recent performance and PECOTA's had enough weirdness over the past few years I take it with a few shakers of salt.) Rowand's probably closer to .300/.380 or so. Both seem to hit lefties slightly better than righties and I'd guess both are reasonably similar enough defensively. I'd rather have had Torres in there, but Rowand wasn't the end of the world.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 1-2 -1u on 3.72u risked, -26.88% ROI

963 PIT +162 (Morton/Vogelsong)

Seems like a pretty obvious contrarian play, PIT's lost a zillion games in a row and Vogelsong's almost certainly pitched way over his head this year. I've lost a lot of money fading Vogelsong this year but I refuse to believe a 34 year old who was mediocre his entire career suddenly learned how to pitch.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

There's a chance the PIT line will be better later, between PIT's losses and Vogelsong's run of excellent starts, SF seems to be the "obvious" play, but I'm trying to post these plays as soon as possible so I don't forget.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

End of season, YTD 2-2 +0.62 on 4.72 risked, 13.14% ROI

An ROI Fezzwick would be proud of. Assuming Northwestern chess nerds don't mind ending sentences with prepositions.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I may not have robbed a bank like Mikevegas's previous business partner Baker, but I shouldn't need to emulate his current hero Fezzik, so let's not anti-Yosh and let's keep posting plays!

928 TEX -184 (Pineda/Ogando)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 3-2 +1.62u on 6.56u risked, 24.70% ROI

952 LAD +119 (Worley/Billingsley)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 3-3 +0.62u on 7.56u risked, 8.2% ROI

911 OAK +133 (Moscoso/Mills)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 4-3 +1.95u on 8.56u risked, 22.78% ROI

977 TEX -125 (Wilson/McCarthy)

Judasing OAK after their big win yesterday, but TEX offense, starting pitching, and bullpen superior enough that the line should be a fair bit higher than -125 IMO.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

923 MIN +134 (Duensing/Tomlin)

Cuddyer missed tonight's game with a strained neck and sounds like he's day to day, but I'm ok playing at this price even if he also misses tomorrow's game.

[kdog]

923 MIN +134 (Duensing/Tomlin)

Cuddyer missed tonight's game with a strained neck and sounds like he's day to day, but I'm ok playing at this price even if he also misses tomorrow's game.

Agree with you here GM. I have it Minn -106 with Cuddyer out.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Agree with you here GM. I have it Minn -106 with Cuddyer out.

Yeah I have something close to that depending on who exactly plays, but assuming they the same lineup as Friday that sounds about right. I have the pitching pretty similar (Duensing a bit better than Tomlin but Tribe bullpen a little better) but I have MIN's offense as substantially better with Morneau back, a good 0.6 runs/game better.

YTD 5-3 +2.95u on 9.56u risked, 30.86% ROI

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 5-4 +1.95u on 10.56u risked, 18.47% ROI

967 MIN +139 (Slowey/Huff)

No Mauer which is obviously a significant downgrade, but I still like MIN at this price.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

MIN/CLE game postponed, so YTD record remains unchanged.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

919 TEX -148 (Ogando/Richards)

I've been playing more road favorites this year than in previous years, but as with my previous plays on TEX, I think TEX has a substantial edge in offense, starting pitching, and relief pitching (all of the projections I have for Richards are pretty lousy) so I don't mind laying a fair bit of road chalk here.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 6-4 +2.95u on 12.04u risked, 24.5% ROI

964 COL -160 (Sanchez/Chacin)

I thought I posted this last night but must have forgotten, the line's 10c worse now but I still think there's plenty of value in COL. I like Sanchez so a bit unusual to be fading a solid pitcher at this price, but the lineup Florida's been trotting out looks like a triple-A lineup, thanks to the injury to Ramirez and the inexplicable demotion of Morrison. Even the injury to Infante is significant, not that Infante is really all that good, but his replacement, Amezaga, is just awful. It's pretty bad when you're able to downgrade your offense by almost two tenths of a run due to an injury to Omar Infante. Anyway, lousy offense plus COL's higher than average HFA makes me like COL at this price.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Interestingly enough, I thought I'd be betting on Sanchez a bit in the second half, because his ERA is up a good bit compared to the last two seasons (ERA+ of 111 and 117 the last two years, 98 this year) but his peripherals are solid, his K/9 and K/BB (and by extension I guess his BB/9) rates are all improved. He's given up more home runs than usual but I suspect that may be due to bad luck as his ERA is 4.00 while is FIP is only 3.22. And here I am fading him, but I don't think the market has really adjusted to the lousy lineup FLA is trotting out.

[Comanche]

GM,

Please check your PM's when you get a chance.

Thanks mate,
Comanche

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 6-5 +1.35u on 13.64u risked, 9.9% ROI

927 TEX +100 (Wilson/Santana)

Texas is almost an auto bet for me these days. but I have a solid advantage to TEX in all three categories. Hamilton left last night in the 8th with back spasms but it sounds like he's pretty likely to play.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 7-5 +2.35u on 14.64u risked, 16.05% ROI

953 ARI +129 (Kennedy/Worley)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 7-6 +1.35u on 15.64u risked, 8.63% ROI

912 HOU +129 (Vogelsong/Rodriguez)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Today's play is 968 TB (Furbush/Hellickson) but Pinnacle seems to be down at the moment, so I'll use the Greek's -195 for grading purposes unless someone advises otherwise. Pinnacle had -190 last I saw about 4 hours ago, so the -195 seems fair enough.

[sundown]

locals there need to get an official mlb furbush jersey with "WE WANT" in bold, max font size on the front side. ill pay for the front row seats behind home plate.

[The Chaperone]

Furbush was recently traded for Fister.

[sundown]

fister furbush ?

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Going into Sunday, YTD 9-6 +3.35u on 18.59u risked, 18.02% ROI

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

915 STL -126 (Westbrook/Lopez)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 10-6 +4.35u on 19.85u risked, 21.91% ROI

964 COL -1.5 +101 (Myers/Chacin)

Limited card today and I don't like any of the dogs, but I do like Colorado, and I consulted with Bucsfan and James Manos who informed me that when you play a big favorite, obviously you have to lay the -1.5. The ML is -212 and the total 9 pretty close to flat, so the equivalent RL is probably around -1.5 -104 or -105, making the RL here the superior choice.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 11-6 +5.36u on 20.85u risked, 25.71% ROI

A nice win yesterday by turning that favorite into a dog. I'd like to thank Andy Iskoe, James Manos, and Bucsfan for that extra ROI by playing the -1.5 RL instead of the ML.

929 CHW +135 (Buehrle/Santana)

[IrishTim]

"Turn that favorite into a dog" one of my forumville expressions

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Tout Andy Iskoe loves that old canard, in fact, I see that exact quote on his website explaining why baseball can be beaten. The best part about Iskoe is that he calls his tout site "The Logical Approach" and a lot of the other touts call him "a math whiz," but his ideas are often completely illogical. My favorite Iskoe-ism is that he mocks people who bet large underdogs priced at +1200 or whatever because the game is only played once, and EV/value does not apply to one-time events.

My other favorite forum expression re: runlines is that you should never bet the +1.5 because you are betting on the team to lose by exactly one run.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Shouldn't have jinxed myself with the +1.5 comment.

YTD 11-7 +4.36u on 21.85 risked

958 COL -156 (Rodriguez/Cook)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Good thing I didn't turn that favorite into a dog!

YTD 12-7 +5.36u on 23.41u risked, 22.90% ROI

908 STL -160 (Morton/Jackson)

Both of these teams have been in a free fall the past couple weeks (well, in the case of the Pirates for the past month), but St. Louis is still the far superior team so -160 isn't too hefty a price here. Morton's only allowed 5 HR in about 140 IP this year and there's no way that's sustainable.

[kdog]

His HR/FB ratio is probably unsustainable at 6.4% but he's become such a ground ball pitcher that I wouldn't expect him to give up too many. His splits vs lefties are pretty horrible though and the Cards can easily start 5 guys hitting from that side.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

979 CHW -125 (Peavy/Furbush)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

933 FLA +251 (Sanchez/Halladay)

Was 264 earlier but couldn't log in from my phone. This may be my last communication before the wind and rain washes me away.

[The Chaperone]

Are they really going to get a game in? Overs gotta be good on these if they were to go 9 innings, but I highly doubt that will happen!

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

There was torrential rain around noon but it had let up quite a bit so I'm surprised they didn't try to get the game in. I don't know if I'd like playing overs on those games because low scoring games finish faster and high humidity is conducive to the ball not carrying as far.

Replacement play for the rained out game before I get into my ark.

930 TEX -160 (Santana/Wilson)

[The Chaperone]

Good point about the low scoring games finishing faster. OTOH, games that have rain delays often see a lot of the back end of the bullpens. I'm also not sure I agree with you about the humidity.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

The hurricane was so close to Philadelphia I wasn't expecting any sort of delay, they'd either get the game in or they wouldn't, but normally the delay knocking out the starters might be conducive to overs. I just tried to be the first person to post to RTP during a tornado warning but I discovered I don't get a cell phone signal in the basement.

[The Chaperone]

Yeah was thinking about it and a full-on hurricane is definitely a different story than a typical thunderstorm rain delay type situation. Although this afternoon with the outer bands lashing Philly might have been a situation where a game could resume during a hurricane.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

If the hurricane hit 3 hours later it definitely could have happened as you described, at noon the rain was torrential (well I was downtown about 3 miles north of the stadium but I'm sure it wasn't much different in south Philadelphia), then it was light rain for a few hours until it picked up again.

YTD 14-8 +5.76u on 27.86u risked, 20.67% ROI

980 TEX -109 (Weaver/Lewis)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

925 FLA game 1 +118 (Sanchez/Dickey)
901 FLA game 2 +111 (Nolasco/Gee)

Does it count as a Yosh if you Yosh while ahead for the year? Reyes is likely to play one of the two games of tomorrow's doubleheader but I haven't heard any news on which but I'm not sure which at the moment. I would like both of these plays even if Reyes played both games, but whichever one in which he doesn't play would be the stronger of the two, hence the "play of the day," so I'll simply post both plays.

YOSH!

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

What a brutal day, my worst of the season on RTP. I received PMs from several touts telling me what an idiot I am to Yosh when I should be anti-Yoshing. I considered taking a few days off to recharge my batteries but I'm just going to plow on.

YTD 14-10 +3.76u on 29.86u risked

961 COL +125 (Cook/Miley)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 14-11 +2.76u on 30.86u risked

928 TEX -122 (Shields/Ogando)

Might be time to call it quits on the year if things don't turn around ASAP.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

964 BAL +104 (Perez/Hunter)

Starts in 3 minutes.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 14-12 +0.54u on 33.08u risked

I should have quit 4 games ago before my foolish Yosh. I'm the laughingstock of the tout community, er, "professional handicapper" community for pissing away a 30% ROI when any smart handicapper would have quit for the year.

929 MIN +161 (Pavano/Chatwood)

Chatwood isn't very good and in no way should be favored this heavily even without Morneau in the lineup for the Twins.

[sundown]

sad to say, but it doesn't look like morneau is going to come back to form any time soon after last year's concussion. he was way off this year. you could attribute some of his poor play to the long layoff but it can't be a good sign that he is still having post-concussion symptoms after 1+ year now.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

913 ARI +106 (Hudson/Vogelsong)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

958 COL -116 (Wiley/Rogers)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

914 COL +100 (Collmenter/Hammel)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

966 ARI/COL un10.5 -104 (Saunders/Millwood)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Play an under because the ball shouldn't be carrying and you get 5 home runs, including one from a pitcher. Fortunately all were solo. Better to be lucky than good.

YTD 17-13 +4.05u on 38.28u risked, 10.58% ROI

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

910 CHW -149 (Huff/Floyd)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

963 SD +1.5 -138 (Latos/Hudson)

Gonna bet on SD to lose by exactly 1 run, as this seems superior to the ML of +158 with a total of 8-ish.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Slight clarification, I should have said "preferable" to "superior." Mathematically, +158 and +1.5 -138 are pretty similar, but given an identical ML and spread, I prefer the spread as it's lower variance. In any case, I personally have SD ML +165 so look for SD to lose by exactly one run.

[IrishTim]

Gonna bet on SD to lose by exactly 1 run

This makes me laugh every time for some reason

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Two plays for Saturday because I can't decide:

915 SD +139 (Staufer/Miley)
917 BAL +164 (VandenHurk/Alvarez)

I like the BAL play a bit more but don't quite have enough data on Alvarez to make it a higher weighted play. I don't believe Alvarez is nearly as good as his 2.95 ERA would indicate. VandenHurk isn't very good either but Toronto's offense isn't that much superior that they should be this heavily favored. Interesting angle--a full 1/3rd of pitchers born in the Netherlands have made the HOF.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Slight clarification, I should have said "preferable" to "superior." Mathematically, +158 and +1.5 -138 are pretty similar, but given an identical ML and spread, I prefer the spread as it's lower variance. In any case, I personally have SD ML +165 so look for SD to lose by exactly one run.

Well wouldn't you know it, the Amazing Kreskin rears his head. Tie game and the fuckers bring in their 5th best reliever who promptly allows a run, and then they can't score a runner from 2nd with 0 outs.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_zxsbVMrOUNw/STRnItsoiyI/AAAAAAAABVU/or_QA7KfavY/s400/kreskin.jpg

[buffettgambler]

Got unlucky with the lineup the Orioles are putting out. Market will not buy in 60's.
GL

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Got unlucky with the lineup the Orioles are putting out. Market will not buy in 60's.
GL

Yes, some of the players in that lineup have so little experience I didn't even have projected data for them.

971 BOS -113 (Lester/Shields)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

918 CHW -106 (Porcello/Danks)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

974 CHW +165 (Verlander/Floyd)

[BuckyBadger]

974 CHW +165 (Verlander/Floyd)
I like this one also--BOL--I know it's been sliding a bit lately, but any record update?

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I'll double check the units/ROI later but it should be +0.86u, as it was +4.05u, then two chalk winners, then five losers where the two chalks were -113 and -106, so +4.05 +2 -5 -0.19 should be +0.86u.

I should probably comp ComptrBob a subscription to the GM play of the day thread if he can compile my record, but he'll promptly be banned tomorrow if my next play loses.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

926 BAL +131 (Davis/Guthrie)

Guthrie's lost a zillion games this year so no surprise he's a decent sized dog here, but he really isn't as terrible as his record might indicate. I also have a bet that no pitcher would lose 18 or more games this year, so I need Guthrie to at least get an ND here to save that one.

[ComptrBob]

I should probably comp ComptrBob a subscription to the GM play of the day thread if he can compile my record, but he'll promptly be banned tomorrow if my next play loses.

Sorry, I'm busy enough tracking Sportsmemo and Fezzik. I'll just have to be content with reading your RTP plays and hope that you win. LOL

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Clearly I need lessons on Yoshing as after finally breaking a losing streak and going a couple units into the black, I'm posting two plays:

956 COL -127 (Vogelsong/Chacin)
957 PIT +173 (Ohlendorf/Eveland)

I like both of these plays a lot so you get two plays today. There's two common themes here, namely an overreaction to recent results. I've bet against Vogelsong in almost every start this year, without a lot of success earlier, but he's now lost 6 out of 7. Realistically he can only be blamed for one of the losses, and the rest were due to SF's inept offense only scoring 4 runs for him total in 6 starts. I simply don't believe a 34 year old pitcher who's been varying degrees of mediocre his entire career has suddenly learned how to pitch. No Tulowitzki for Colorado and probably no Helton but I still like this play a lot at this price.

Likewise, Eveland's only allowed 1 run in his two starts this season (one being against Vogelsong and the inept SF offense), but he's not good enough to justify such a heavy price pitching for a mediocre team like the Dodgers.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

956 COL -108 (Bass/Cook)

Probably no Gonzalez or Helton for Colorado and who knows if Tulowitzki will be able to start or will just be limited to pinch hitting duties, but even with all those guys missing I still like this play.

[sundown]

thanks for the dinner idea, tonight. cook/bass... chilean sea bass that is

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Better than Fister/Furbush, I suppose.

[BuckyBadger]

thanks for the dinner idea, tonight. cook/bass... chilean sea bass that is
I thought last Sat's Wang (in) Hand match-up was good also

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

905 COL +109 (White/Sosa)

Gonna try these guys again. COL missing a bunch of players but they should probably still be favored on the road against HOU's lousy lineup, and Sosa is pretty lousy as well.

As a possible bonus play, I'll be posting later whether I'm playing NYY tonight, but I suspect I will. In years past, fading teams who'd just clinched tended to be a good angle but the line seems to adjust for that now, and sometimes too much. Even though NYY will likely rest a bunch of players, even docking them an entire run's worth of offense and a half run from the bullpen, I still get a line of NYY +116. I'll wait to see if the line inflates further and exactly what crappy lineup they trot out, but I suspect I'll end up taking NYY at +135ish.

[The Chaperone]

905 COL +109 (White/Sosa)

http://monke.areavoices.com/monke/images/Sammy_Sosa.jpg

Softball imo.

[sundown]

ok- you guys plotted this one out in advance...

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

920 NYY +141 (Moore/Colon)

I have a photoshop in mind for this one. NYY sending out a surprisingly strong lineup for this one. Maybe there's some sort of hangover effect at work and playing a doubleheader yesterday can't have helped, but I still can't see the fair line on this one being any worse than +115.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

920 NYY +141 (Moore/Colon)

http://www.aliveandwellcoloncare.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/DSC00323.JPG

[The Chaperone]

Was thinking more along the lines of goatse...

[BuckyBadger]

I thought for sure we'd see 1 more shot with the Rockies today (Fri). Well, I bet them anyway.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I didn't have enough data on Pomeranz to line the COL/HOU game today. This late in the year it's not uncommon that there are a handful of pitchers where I can't line their games, Jeff Locke for Pittsburgh today was another one.

Basic strategy this late in the year is pretty simple, to fade teams in "must win" games. I thought everything today was lined correctly except for Washington, Toronto, and Oakland, not surprisingly who were all facing teams in "must win" situations. Washington would have been the GM play of the day if I had time to post, but I was busy and forgot.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

926 CHW -127 (Teaford/Danks)

Only 9 of tomorrow's 17 games on the board as of now, and actually I don't like any of the basic strategy plays on the board currently but I like this one a lot. Don't think much of Teaford at all so I think the White Sox should be a substantially larger favorite than this. Some of the White Sox hitters have been brutally bad this year, notably Rios and Dunn, but they really can't be *that* bad.

[BuckyBadger]

The only possible explanation I could have for my Rockies bet is that I was concussed

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

957 COL -101 (Millwood/Harrell)

Back with these clowns again and I'm pretty sure I'm not concussed. My current offense rating for Colorado with all of their injuries is easily the lowest it's ever been for them in my nine years of handicapping baseball, but I still have them about 0.24 runs better than Houston's AAA lineup, and I think there's a edge in pitching to Colorado here too, enough to temper that historically they've done worse on the road relative to other teams. (COL's historically won about 13% more often at home than on the road compared to the average of 8%).

As far as "basic strategy" plays, I think ATL and STL are lined right but I think there's some value in Toronto so I'll be playing that and watching for further line inflation (not an official play). Neither BOS/NYY game are on the board as of this writing.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Keep forgetting to update the record but I'm pretty sure it's something like -0.7u. Not that such a small sample of a record means anything anyway.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Change in scheduled pitchers for Colorado, actually I like this one better than the other one:

957 COL -118 (CHACIN/Harrell)

As far as basic strategy plays, I may play NYY in game 1 against Boston depending on lineups, but I don't want any part of game 2 taking Nova as a decent sized favorite. As much as Lackey has sucked this year I don't really think he's any worse than Nova, so NYY's slight offensive edge doesn't justify them being a decent favorite.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Colorado flipflopped back to Millwood so the original bet has action. I'm not sure if I have to technically repost with Millwood since some books would incorrectly void the Millwood bet (there was controversy regarding books cancelling bets in that situation a couple months ago in some game involving the Reds), but in my experience Pinnacle would say the first bet has action, as should any good book. It's available now with Millwood at -106 so barely a difference anyway.

NYY put out a pretty weak lineup in g1 vs Boston so I passed on the "fade the must-win team" angle in that game.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

921 NYY +215 (Noesi/Shields)

This line is ridiculous. Noesi is nothing special but NYY has a relatively strong lineup out (Texiera's out but most everyone else important is playing) so no way this line should be so high.

As far as the other must win fade games are concerned, the BAL line has dropped a lot and I don't think there's any value in the current line, and might play the Phils with a litle line help (looking for -130). I actually played STL (not an official pick) which is unusual for a must win situation.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I forgot TEX is also a "must win" fade, and I will probably play TEX once I confirm they're playing a regular lineup.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

976 CHW -103 (Alvarez/Buehrle)

This line has dropped a lot and I'm not sure why since I think Alvarez isn't very good.

As far as fading must-wins, the only one I took was NYY, and I actually bet TEX and STL.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I also played PHI, forgot that was fading a "must win."

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

And a further followup, forgot that LAA's now 3 out so TEX is no longer a "must win" fade. FYI I don't add any extra value to the fact that it fits the must win angle aside from knowing the team in the must win isn't likely to rest any meaningful players, but it seems more often than not I end up playing some pretty inflated lines because of the "must win" angle. I.e. while I didn't think the Phillies line was off by a lot (I made the line -113 and played +102), considering they're playing a normal lineup, it seems silly that they're a dog and I'd have to imagine if this game took place in August the line would be PHI -120.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I think this is correct as of today:

YTD 24-23 +1.55u on 57.00u risked, 2.7% ROI

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

As of now, only one must-win is on the board, BOS/BAL, and I don't have any interest in playing BAL at the current price, and actually might take BOS if the line drops. Unusual to play a must-win, but the consensus seems to be that BOS has no heart, has given up for the season, etc.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

927 TEX -130 (Harrison/RICHARDS)

Texas has been using pretty regular lineups and Richards is lousy, so I like this price.

As far as must-win fades, I played the Phillies (not an official pick) but passed on the Orioles and Astros. Pretty good chance I'll play the Yankees but the line isn't out yet.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Played the Yankees tonight (not an official play) although the line has dropped a bit since I bet. Money has come in on all of the "must win fades" so perhaps this angle is becoming known. I actually played back a little on STL and BOS as anti-steam plays.

[sundown]

i pregraded nyy +230 into the 8th inning. ill take responsibility for this one.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I originally had just NYY +1.5 +115 so my only financial concern would have been losing the equity from all of the Red Sox playoff tickets I'd purchased at face value, except that I ended up finding +235 when the line was obviously dropping, bet it big, and then decided scalping was for pussies and let the whole thing ride. Had a very nice day earlier from Champions League games and ended up down on the day by the end. Oh well, we move on.

952 TEX -174 (MOORE/Wilson)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Forgot to post my play yesterday but it would have been STL. Going with them again:

965 STL +171 (Carpenter/Lee)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I'm getting bad about remembering to post these. Would have posted TEX yesterday, so I'm basically even since I missed a winner and a loser. To make up I'll post both my plays today:

976 STL +125 (Hamels/Garcia)
977 MIL -114 (Marcum/Collmenter)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 26-26 +0.38u on 63.18u risked, 0.60% ROI

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

981 MIL +100 (Wolf/Saunders)
985 DET +150 (Fister/Nova)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

This line move on Detroit is just silly. Adding a unit on

DET +1.5 -133.

Tomorrow's GM play of the day will also include a play on STL but I'm waiting to post figuring the line will inflate, although Pinnacle has dropped from +169 to +165 so I could be wrong.

[sundown]

heritage +1.5 -125 right now. i already limit bet it at -130 . agree. totally ridiculous line

[sundown]

somebody please take that out before post or i will be disappointed in all of you.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I'd already put one unit on DET, added another on +1.5 -130, added another on first 5 innings +.5 -110, and have DET for the series, so I couldn't really justify a fifth unit on DET +1.5 -125 even if I'd noticed that.

[Comanche]

somebody please take that out before post or i will be disappointed in all of you.

I would be disappointed in anybody here who is still allowed to play at Heritage.

[sundown]

I would be disappointed in anybody here who is still allowed to play at Heritage.

haha - ive only suffered reduced lims since being xferd over from oly.

i'm sure i have some burnt accounts from years past, though.

pay groover his money.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I don't understand Heritage's business model, because I had a pretty small balance at the Greek when the Greek cut off the US, and after that automatic redirection where my balance was sent to Heritage, I was given a number to call and was told something like I wasn't eligible for an account at Heritage and they sent me my remaining (small) balance. While I was an overall winner at the Greek, I really doubt they had me profiled as a sharp, since the main stuff I'm able to beat on my own is MLB and props, and they always had crappy MLB lines aside from this year and the one other year they had a dimeline, I think 2005, and I never beat them enough on props that they cut my limits.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

902 TEX +104 (Verlander/Wilson)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

905 DET +129 (Scherzer/Holland)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I believe this is right, the last DET play was a void because of a rain out:

YTD 29-27 +2.92u on 67.51u risked, 4.33% ROI