PerpetualCzech Halftime Plays

[PerpetualCzech]

2H AFC +3 -109 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

Chaperone in the chatbox:

"i'm not degen enough to be on the ball for pro bowl halftimes"

Will remember that for next time.

[PerpetualCzech]

1H LAK/UT Over 109.5 -105 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

1H NY/LAC Over 111.5 -105 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Denver +8 -105 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H OKL +5.5 -111 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

Risk 11.75u, Return +0.60u, +5.1%

All Star Game 1H Under 132 -103 for 3 units

[Jeff Jones]

Risk 11.75u, Return +0.60u, +5.1%

All Star Game 1H Under 132 -103 for 3 units

I'd say Perp and I have set this up perfectly. After an initial adrenaline blast to begin the game, the teams settle into a workmanlike effort, and keep the 1H under 132. In the 2H, effort mounts steadily, and by the fourth quarter, it's showtime. Maybe even a little overtime.

That's the script I'm writing. If it doesn't work out, I'll sell it straight to overseas video..

[PerpetualCzech]

2H CHA +8 -113 for 2 units

-110 shouldn't be hard to find

[PerpetualCzech]

FU Orlando

2H Hou/NJ Under 95.5 +100 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H LAC -0.5 -107 for 2 units

Yes, I know Zach is out

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Milwaukee +8 -116 for 3 units

[Hal01]

4) Records should be given in the following format: Total Units Risked, Total Units Profit/Loss, and ROI (return on investment expressed as a percentage, or Profit/Loss divided by Units Risked)

[PerpetualCzech]

Yeah yeah, I've been lazy. You can't blame me.

Risk 21.63u, Return -9.28u, -42.9%

[TJMAXX]

I guess you're beating the dow/nasdaq or NZSX... keep 'em coming!

[PerpetualCzech]

Ind/NY 1H Over 115 -113 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Celts +4.5 -109 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H NO/SAC Under 101.5 -102 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Memphis +9 +104 for 2 units

[Jeff Jones]

1H Memphis +9 +104 for 2 units

For the good of all mankind, could you please stop posting your half-time bets?

[PerpetualCzech]

Can't. I'm due.

2H OKL +2 -115 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H POR/HOU Under 95.5 -108 for 1 unit

[PerpetualCzech]

Risk 34.51u, Return -13.6u, -39.4%

The good part about an ROI like this is that it's easy to improve.

[Jeff Jones]

Perp's down there in New Zealand living the good life. You would have to think that any tout savant knowledge could be dismantled by long walks on the beach, surfing, and his tout service strictly for the indigenous natives of the Island(s).

We have to get him back in the laboratory.

[PerpetualCzech]

Mil/Dall 2H Under 104 -110 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

LAC 2H +5.5 -111 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Sac +10 -114 for 2 units

[John Lee Petimore]

u think anyone cares......LOL

[Jon in Oakland]

u think anyone cares......LOL

In addition to this gem, your have two other posts. In one, you say simply:

"f u"

In the other you do manage to construct a sentence, praising Richkas and ridiculing someone else.

This is not exactly what we're looking for here. I suggest you quickly become funnier, smarter and more literate.

Thank you.

[PerpetualCzech]

2H PHO +5 -103 for 1 unit

[PerpetualCzech]

2H MIN -5 -106 for 2 units

[ComptrBob]

tanks fer ur picks ;)

[PerpetualCzech]

What's that, your Warren Jensen impression? lol

Risk 45.46, Return -13.93u, -31%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H IND/SAC Under 106 -110 for 3 units

matchbook way better FWIW

[ComptrBob]

What's that, your Warren Jensen impression? lol

Risk 45.46, Return -13.93u, -31%

My lame attempt at levity. Warren Jensen was the only poster on FP/LVA that I requested be banned. I always thought "it" was a JIO ghost. LOL

IMO, both the Phoenix and Minn 2nd halfs were good bets. Both looked very good in the 3rd Q and then turned sour.

[PerpetualCzech]

2H MEM +8 +100 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H GST +6.5 -105 for 2 units

[Jon in Oakland]

I always thought "it" was a JIO ghost. LOL

That's about the most insulting thing I've ever heard.

[PerpetualCzech]

HOU/UT 2H Under 96.5 -105 for 2 units

[ComptrBob]

That's about the most insulting thing I've ever heard.

Then who was Warren Jensen?

No one could be that asinine without being a ghost of someone else.

[PerpetualCzech]

Risk 54.96, Return -11.2u, -20.4%

[Jeff Jones]

Bud,

You profusely posted on March 3 to no consequence and then died on the vine with your genius. And now you're suddenly dispensing unfettered sports gambling advice over three weeks later?

Yesterday and Today.

Only Jon of Oakland would buy this.

[PerpetualCzech]

If you're looking for gambling advice then you've come to the wrong thread. For genuine insight into experienced bettors' decision-making processes, go to the Freaky NBA Trend/Take the Plunge threads. I've broken every rule in the book by posting it and you're not going to find anything quite like it anywhere else.

This thread was partly in response to a poster here who had been crying for picks on almost a daily basis. It was like Andy Dufresne trying to build his library; eventually I just had to post something just to shut him up. In light of this, please take them for what they're worth and take up any problems you have with them with him.

[PerpetualCzech]

2H CHA/PHI Under 93 -109 for 2 units

[ComptrBob]

For genuine insight into experienced bettors' decision-making processes, go to the Freaky NBA Trend/Take the Plunge threads. I've broken every rule in the book by posting it and you're not going to find anything quite like it anywhere else.

Second the motion. This is a very interesting trend that PC found. Really fascinating statistically. Excellent work, PC, I just wish somehow Jeff could appreciate it.

[Jeff Jones]

Second the motion. This is a very interesting trend that PC found. Really fascinating statistically. Excellent work, PC, I just wish somehow Jeff could appreciate it.

Nobody loves "genuine insight" more than I do. And I especially adore "experienced bettors' decision-making processes."

But can any Sharp here produce a winning, documented record at "Roughing The Punter?"

Just one. Not yet.

And be willing to post picks for more than one disastrous day (much less a year) before they abandon the exercise??

Other than the FEZZDAQ, has this ever happened in Internet history?

Perp Czech writes, If you're looking for gambling advice then you've come to the wrong thread.

For the love of God, that's the only reason people sign on to this, or any other, gambling thread. Funny thing, but they are looking for gambling advice. Nobody is here to celebrate the Sharp malperformance display of his own genius..

People read the site for advice, especially from the best in the world. Nobody is reading this site for "genuine insight" that has heretofore been a disaster.

[fezzik]

Even the Fezzdaq lost at it!!

[custer]

Baseball play of the day coming soon. :)

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Cleve +2 -108 for 2 units

[Jeff Jones]

2H Cleve +2 -108 for 2 units

Excellent. See, Intervention does work.

Perp is on his way back!

As for Custer's promise (or threat) of daily baseball picks, we will have the Intervention Team ready.

Health professionals agree that Baseball remains the one area that medical science knows the least about, although tremendous advances have been made in the area of mitigating the consequences of correlated parlays.

2009 Baseball awaits. Be safe out there.

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Pho/Dal Under 112.5 -106 for 2 units

[Jeff Jones]

2H Pho/Dal Under 112.5 -106 for 2 units

Looking like a total lock, unless they lower the baskets to 8 feet.

[Jeff Jones]

Boy, that will make you give up gambling.

A 25 pt-lead and 4 people in the stands and cover 112 pts...58-58

Are they hiring at 7-11?

[PerpetualCzech]

Boy, that will make you give up gambling.

Yeah, the NBA will do that to you. Worst sport ever for rooting purposes.

Risk 61.42, -13.5u, -22%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Dall +3 -110 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Bos/Cleve Under 92 -103 for 1 unit

[PerpetualCzech]

2H UT +5 -110 for 3 units

[The Chaperone]

2H UT +5 -110 for 3 units

So glad I was out to dinner at this halftime. Did not understand this line at all. As it is I managed to lose some money on this game anyway, but it could have been much worse...

[custer]

Yeah, I got fed up by baseball, and decided to skip it. How the fuck was this line 5!!!!???

[PerpetualCzech]

So glad I was out to dinner at this halftime. Did not understand this line at all. As it is I managed to lose some money on this game anyway, but it could have been much worse...

Biggest cash crunch crises of my career just got that much worse. We move on.

[custer]

After talking with my boy, who I guess woke up and looked at it, I see why the line was what it was. The Lakers said before the game that they were going to play it like normal, and apparently in the 1h that's how they played. So the ht line was what it would have been for a 'normal' game, I suppose. Either way, if I was here I'm sure we would have fired.

[Jeff Jones]

After talking with my boy, .

Probably a little pretentious.

Check with your French maid, too.

[bobbyt1962]

jj, i don't come here for specific gambling advice. other than a few, selective times i followed members on bc,i don't think i've ever bet anything due to a post anywhere. for me , it's like going to a cafe or bar where a lot of players hang out and shoot the breeze. and just like those places, there's always some guy like you (a conversation cop) who has to butt in. worse, your type often discourages further discourse, because you've got to make sure everything squares with the way you think they should be. people are often reluctant to speak (post) up because they don't like being the object of ridicule. that diminishes the value of any forum that is already small by (i think) intent. if you're not already barred on bc, you likely would be. any veteran of the wars doesn't take long to see who is who. i still like shooting the breeze over here,but i've got to put you on ignore. and that's antithetical to what i'd like this to be. oh well, have at me with your sharpest barbs....you're a riot, like chevy chase!

[custer]

Is there a ytd for this assortment?

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Atlanta +3.5 -110 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

Adding another unit of Atlanta +3.5 at -107. I like this one. Less bounceback in the playoff than in reg season. Starters play longer.

[PerpetualCzech]

Closed -101 LOL I suck.

Go Hawks.

[PerpetualCzech]

tyty

risk 71.22u, return -12.8u, -18.0%

[PerpetualCzech]

I have a feeling I'm going to REALLY like the Spurs at HT if they can maintain a 12+ point lead ...

[PerpetualCzech]

Hmm. That little 5-0 run at the end sucked. I wanted a bigger lead so I could get a couple of points in my pocket. Oh well, pass.

[PerpetualCzech]

LAL/Ut 2H Over 108 -106 for 2 units

[WarDekar]

I faded this at close u108.5+02... But what do I know?

Pinny got hit too fast at open and everywhere else opened at 108 which I didn't like...

[PerpetualCzech]

Bos/Chic 2H Under 101 -113 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Bos +7 -109 for 1 unit

[PerpetualCzech]

Love Dallas at best possible price.

Can't in good conscience post official play since price sucks at Pinn so much.

I caught +3.5 -110 and +4 -115 elsewhere.

[kgbted21]

nice picks pc. you scooped tonight. i got the 3.5 also.

[PerpetualCzech]

tyty

risk 76.69u, return -11.92u, -15.5%

Single digits, here I come!

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Port/Hou Under 92.5 -110 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

I have a feelin' I'm gonna love HOU for the 2H ...

[PerpetualCzech]

Can't lay points here ... pass :(

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 78.89u, return -9.92u, -12.6%

[PerpetualCzech]

Probabaly not shockingly, I love Miami here.

I'll use the Pinn +5 -115 line for 2 units but I'm sure you can do better elsewhere.

[PerpetualCzech]

I finished. I got all the +5.5 -120 filled at MB that I wanted.

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 81.29u, return -7.92u, -9.7%

[Jeff Jones]

You have almost lost less than Custer.

We are on our way back.

[PerpetualCzech]

1H DET +5.5 -113 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Bos/Chic Under 100.5 +105 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Cleve -2 -110 for 1 unit

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 86.65u, return -7.08u, -8.2%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H ATL +4 +112 for 3 units

Love it

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 89.65u, return -3.72u, -4.1%

Note the updates get more timely when I'm winning.

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Hornets +6.5 -108 for 2 units

[The Chaperone]

1H Hornets +6.5 -108 for 2 units

Took some +6.5 -105 and some 1q +3.5 +105 (Bookmaker).

[custer]

In name, the Hornets are a professional team. Does that mean they come with a professional effort tonight? I don't think so, and with their injuries, I think the 'public' is right about this one.

[PerpetualCzech]

2H NO +7 -115 for 2 units

FU CUSTER

[PerpetualCzech]

Custer knows all.

risk 93.88u, return -3.87u, -4.1%

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Chic/Bos Under 97.5 -111 for 2 units

Not exactly the greatest timing for this one but I like it anyway.

[Prop Man]

No 2H BOS play?

[PerpetualCzech]

No 2H BOS play?

Was at Sunday brunch. :)

risk 96.1u, return -1.87u, -1.9%

[Cutter]

thank you for your insight. i played und 98 this morning on the 1H. then lost back much more on 2H under 98.

i am not that familiar with the "no arguments" part of this. i don't argue the picks anyway, i just want to know how the results of your picks would be if you get a half a point better or passed if unable to get a half a point better than what you got? for example if you are down 1 unit after 100 units invested at the numbers that you played (high limits i assume), then what would your results be betting say .25 of your normal bet size but at a half a point better combined with those bets that you might have passed on because you couldn't get a half a point better?

you are a respected capper, i would never argue with your picks. in a market with such small edges i am just offering the possibility of a less risky and more rewarding way to bet the picks. there is no guarantee that the results would be any better by only betting those at half a point better while passing on those plays that never seem to find that rogue hook. it is possible that the results would show that those missed bets are more often winners, yielding no improvement whatsoever. just curious though if you happen to know how the results would have been.

brunch! you got to be 18 hours different than us?

on a side note, betting in vegas i think that nearly half of my long term profit are partial game bets. markets seem so volatile and there are often bad bettors moving the local markets that a small bet on a partial can yield a decent long run return. i remember getting +14 on a 16 seed this year in the 2H. line opened 12 at this one shithole, and was bet up to 14 by the public. i imagine many books in other markets were dealing +12 or less on this game. i realized that partials should not be overlooked, and actually when betting football and basketball, especially post season and big or isolated games, these opportunities are why i still play this game. unfortunately there are no "large" bets on partials here anymore. occasionally sides will have large limits, totals are almost always nickels at most. the few places that offer higher limits also profile you a little bit. and this has the effect of downright booting you or at the very least keeping your bet sizes smaller than they care about.

[PerpetualCzech]

I've been really bad in keeping records of my results over the past approx. 2 years. Before then I remember figuring out that for my entire career I've returned about $1.025 for every dollar I've bet. I've made no secret of the fact that the bulk (practically entire?) of my gains have been through betting halftimes, both football and basketball. If I were to give a stab in the dark I would guess that my ROI on all halftime bets going forward from today would be about 3%. That's a very difficult figure to guess at however given the fact that both the markets and also the things I learn and study both evolve at very difficult-to-guesstimate rates.

That being said, now might be a good time to mention that the plays I post in this thread represent only a minority of the plays I bet on. The problem is that if I posted them all, it really wouldn't take very long for some of the logic I use for them to be reverse engineered. I do bet on every play I post, but I try to choose the ones that have characteristics or qualities that stand out uniquely.

(hope that made sense ...)

[The Chaperone]

Cutter I got un 98.5 reduced at multiple offshore outs...

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Dall +4.5 -108 for 1 unit

[Prop Man]

Before then I remember figuring out that for my entire career I've returned about $1.025 for every dollar I've bet.

....................

If I were to give a stab in the dark I would guess that my ROI on all halftime bets going forward from today would be about 3%.



Your ROI previously was 2.5%, and you think going forward it will be 3%...how do you reconcile those numbers? Do you think you are much better now than you were previously? Do you think the market is softer? I'm assuming you chose those numbers carefully, and either I'm misinterpreting something...or it looks a bit odd to me that you'd expect a higher ROI now when the market is tougher than in the past.

[WarDekar]

He said he was 2.5% on his entire career, then followed that up with it's possible he's down on non-2H betting. He could even be profiting from non-2H betting, and be >3% on 2Hs, but if he's <0% on non-2H then he's almost assuredly >3% on 2H (obviously depends on volume of each)

[Prop Man]

followed that up with it's possible he's down on non-2H betting.

I missed that. I'm shocked. Really PC?

[PerpetualCzech]

Yeah, apples and oranges. The 2.5% was an overall figure and the 3% was 2Hs going forward. I'm fairly sure I'd still be up without 2Hs available to me but not sure at all that it could have supported me all this time.

Also, I should acknowledge that I fell into the trap that I have frequently criticized in the past, namely measuring one's success in terms of ROI. Theoretically the harder you work and the greater precision you know your ROI to, the LESS your ROI should be going forward. That's because more and more of your volume will be dumped into the <1%-type edges which are all over the place (as long as you can identify them of course). So in a weird way, overall ROI for a disciplined smart bettor can become inversely proportional to how much work you do!

In a nutshell, I just wanted to say I really was pulling those 2.5% and 3% figs out of my ass. :)

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Rockets +9.5 -107 for 2 units

[The Chaperone]

2H Rockets +9.5 -107 for 2 units

Was at the soccer game so missed this one, but when I saw how much they were up at halftime I knew I would have been on the Rockets 2h. What I was really wondering is whether or not you could have gotten double digits. I'm sure at the square outs you could.

[PerpetualCzech]

10 flat was no problem and I got 10 reduced at MB. That was the only reason I didn't make it 3 units.

risk 99.32u, return -0.95u, -1.0%

[WarDekar]

Was 10 flat that available?

I got it one place, but that was it- I've also been playing poker today (why?) though so I may have missed some.

[custer]

10 flat popped over and over and over again :)

[TJMAXX]

... I fell into the trap that I have frequently criticized in the past, namely measuring one's success in terms of ROI. Theoretically the harder you work and the greater precision you know your ROI to, the LESS your ROI should be going forward. That's because more and more of your volume will be dumped into the <1%-type edges which are all over the place (as long as you can identify them of course). So in a weird way, overall ROI for a disciplined smart bettor can become inversely proportional to how much work you do!

I'm not sure I agree with this... If I was betting sides in the NFL, I'd measure that against sides in the NFL.. ROI should be a good measure of that group over the years. If I was betting juicy 2h's, or scalping mlb lines, those would obviously not compare to NFL results, but they shouldn't be measured against each other to begin with.

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Bos ML -190 to win 2 units

[kgbted21]

congrats on moving the record into positive territory. if you keep betting good bets for long enough, the edge will catch up.

[The Chaperone]

FU JJ!

x

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Over 98 +112 for 2 units

[kgbted21]

man, the 2nd half under is getting slammed. playback time.

[PerpetualCzech]

congrats on moving the record into positive territory. if you keep betting good bets for long enough, the edge will catch up.

TY sir. Might as well update the record now and get it in print before I drop back under lol

risk 103.12u, return +1.05u, +1.0%

[TJMAXX]

wtf. a resident pro with a positive record?

Why is JJ nowhere to be found?

[PerpetualCzech]

man, the 2nd half under is getting slammed. playback time.

Yeah I timed that bad. Didn't dream it would fall any lower. Great play at the closing price IMO

[WarDekar]

2H Over 98 +112 for 2 units

Funny, cause I was holding out to see how good I could get and that's the price I ended up taking as well.

[WarDekar]

wtf. a resident pro with a positive record?

Why is JJ nowhere to be found?

Because he ignores things he doesn't like to see.

[PerpetualCzech]

I'm not sure I agree with this... If I was betting sides in the NFL, I'd measure that against sides in the NFL.. ROI should be a good measure of that group over the years. If I was betting juicy 2h's, or scalping mlb lines, those would obviously not compare to NFL results, but they shouldn't be measured against each other to begin with.

Not sure what you are trying to say here. All I'm saying is that ROI is only one variable of the equation. The other variable that you have to multiply that by in order to get your bottom line is the volume you are able to get down. That's why I'm saying the traditional measurement of "picking x% winners" or simple ROI isn't giving you the whole picture of how good someone is in maximizing their profits.

[Jeff Jones]

wtf. a resident pro with a positive record?

Why is JJ nowhere to be found?

Oh good grief. I'm always here.

You people cream when a "pro" moves his documented record into positive territory. Isn't that what he is supposed to do?

[PerpetualCzech]

Oh good grief. I'm always here.

You people cream when a "pro" moves his documented record into positive territory. Isn't that what he is supposed to do?

Jeff, it's ok, I'm back in the red. Resume alternate persona.

[Jeff Jones]

Jeff, it's ok, I'm back in the red. Resume alternate persona.

Perp, you're killing me. I know you are trying to make this site succeed, and so am I and my alternate persona.. Both I and my Alternate Persona contribute whatever content we can think up.

You are way too touchy.

I'm sorry your record here is up on Tuesday, down on Wednesday. Believe me, I wish Custer was winning, too.

But you guys are way bigger/smarter/richer/handsomer than I am. And the core poster choir here maintains that belief.

But you can't grow a retail (I assume that's the goal) business site on the same few people admiring each other day after day when there is nothing really substantive to admire here...

As they said in Field of Dreams, "Build a winning documented record, and they will come."

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Lakers -4.5 -113 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

But you can't grow a retail (I assume that's the goal) business site

You assume too much. Way too much. We're just here for the same reason you are: we enjoying posting.

You're the site's most prolific poster and also its most negative one. Can't you see by now whatever direction you are trying to steer us is being completely ignored?

[Jeff Jones]

You assume too much. Way too much. We're just here for the same reason you are: we enjoying posting.

You're the site's most prolific poster and also its most negative one. Can't you see by now whatever direction you are trying to steer us is being completely ignored?

LOL. If the goal is simply pure vanity posting, sure, I'll work with that.

[Jafar]

PC-
I see that JJ is getting to you. He used to do that to me too. But then I met the guy and realized he's harmless. Why he posts in the manner he does but surrounds himself with sharp bettors who make a living by this, I don't know. But I concluded the guy is harmless and must just do it for his own sanity. I'm not sure.

[Jeff Jones]

PC-
I see that JJ is getting to you. He used to do that to me too. But then I met the guy and realized he's harmless. Why he posts in the manner he does but surrounds himself with sharp bettors who make a living by this, I don't know. But I concluded the guy is harmless and must just do it for his own sanity. I'm not sure.

I have met the great anonymous Jafar? I meet with gamblers every day and this Jafar figure doesn't stand out. I guess I met him if he says I did.. Another day, another poster. I'm pretty much available to meet anybody anytime.(And you can stay anonymous!!!).

How many idiots can I ski behind? Jafar, you do realize that having lunch with Perp Czech as opposed to you is the meaning of Papal Audience.

You can't make it up.

[Jafar]

I'm hurt JJ. You, Fezzik, Cutter and I had a fantastic lunch at the California Pizza Kitchen.

[Jeff Jones]

I'm hurt JJ. You, Fezzik, Cutter and I had a fantastic lunch at the California Pizza Kitchen.

Well then, out of respect for Cutter and Fezz, I will try not to be mean.

Call me crazy, but I don't think anybody in Las Vegas is really on board with you. The day after I "met" you, you were on the site threatening to reveal deep dark gambling information until Fezzik shut you down publicly.

There is no such material. It's a closed community.

If you think you have something to offer, go for it.

Otherwise, get your little sawed off ass away from here.

[Jafar]

Um, is your memory fading terribly?

Do a search, I said that in March. Are you telling me our lunch was that long ago? IIRC, it was sometime in mid April. Hence, why I said... after I met him, I realized he was harmless.

LOL at JJ telling others they shouldn't be on a forum. Don't forget your meds old man.

[PerpetualCzech]

LAL/Hou 2H Under 99 -101 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Hou +9.5 -106 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 111.52u, return +0.79u, +0.7%

[The Chaperone]

risk 111.52u, return +0.79u, +0.7%

This feels like stealing...

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Hou/LAL Under 97 -111 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 113.72u, return +2.79u, +2.5%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H DEN +4.5 -112 for 3 units

[WarDekar]

Let's go! Where's JJ at?

[PerpetualCzech]

Boy I whiffed on that one. Luckily you only pay the juice when you lose.

[WarDekar]

Yeah... I can't believe Lakers are getting bet this hard

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 117.08u, return +5.79u, +4.9%

1H Cleve ML -260 for 1 unit

[PerpetualCzech]

By the way, I messed up that play and don't really have time to explain how ... if anyone is thinking of backing Cleve for the 1H then the current -5 -101 is much better than ML -260.

[PerpetualCzech]

Big pass on this one for me.

risk 119.68u, return +6.79u, +5.7%

[PerpetualCzech]

I like +4 flat for small but can't post a pick a Pinn's price ...

[PerpetualCzech]

Czech,
As far as I can determine, none of the favorite ML's match up with the actual point spreads. The fav ML's are too expensive based on historical data.

I've actually found that whenever I am taking a 1H ML it's almost always on the favourite. Having said that, I've gotten killed playing them over the years, so wtf do I know. :)

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Cle/Orl Under 94.5 -104 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 121.76u, return +4.71u, +3.9%

Game 4 1H LAL/Den Under 104.5 -102 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 122.8u, return +6.71u, +5.5%

Game 5 1H LAL/Den Under 105.5 -108 for 2 units

[kgbted21]

they scored about 25 points in the last 2.5 minutes. this bet was looking really good up to then.

[PerpetualCzech]

2H ORL/CLE Under 96.5 -115 for 2 units

Would make it 3 units at -110 if I could ...

[WarDekar]

Let's go

[Jackie Peanuts]

Let's go

I second that.

[PerpetualCzech]

Game 6 2H ORL/CLE Under 96 +103 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 130.26u, return +5.34u, +4.1%

[PerpetualCzech]

Game 3 1H LAL/ORL Under 101 -114 for 2 units

[Prop Man]

You mean Game 4. I'm sure someone like Jeff Jones would try to freeroll on your record if you left it as Game 3, and call it a loser if it lost, but call it a non-win if it won.

[PerpetualCzech]

Game 4 indeed, oops.

Thx.

[PerpetualCzech]

LAL/ORL 2H Under 100 +107 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

ORL 2H +3.5 +103 for 1 unit

[Cutter]

"pour" a little salt...

OUCH!

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 135.54u, return +4.34u

Dr Mike, You may have counted my Game 4 1H pick as a loser because I wrote "Game 3" but if you look at the next few posts that should explain it.

So 3.2% ROI. Meh, it's a living.

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Bills +9.5 -110 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 138.84u, return +7.34u, +5.3%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Miami +3 -138 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 141.60u, return +4.58u, +3.2%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H SA -2.5 -107 for 2 units

[Prop Man]

Was a big reason for this play due to the Spurs being down by exactly 1 at the half? Would you have taken Spurs -1.5 -107 if the game was tied at the half?

[PerpetualCzech]

The reason for the play was just that number crunching liked it. I admit I did think of the Down By One thingy and considered it an added bonus freeroll :)

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Charlotte +8.5 -108 for 2 units

[WarDekar]

The reason for the play was just that number crunching liked it. I admit I did think of the Down By One thingy and considered it an added bonus freeroll :)

I'm not 100% on this since I don't know your methods for sure, but don't forget that the down by 1 may already be factored into your number crunching.

[PerpetualCzech]

I'm not 100% on this since I don't know your methods for sure, but don't forget that the down by 1 may already be factored into your number crunching.

It is a little, but not a lot. The subset of games I typically look at contain maybe 12-15% of teams down by the actual HT score.

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 145.75u, return +4.51u, +3.1%

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Bos/Minn Under 94 -110 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 149.05u, return +7.51u, +5.0%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H GST +9.5 -113 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Utah -1 -101 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Tor/Ut Under 105.5 +108 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 156.46u, return +8.28u, +5.3%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Chic +2.5 -103 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Eagles/Bears Over 23 -113 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 160.78u, return +3.96u, +2.5%

[PerpetualCzech]

1H GST/DAL Over 108 -119 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 163.16u, return +1.58u, +1.0%

[The Chaperone]

risk 163.16u, return +1.58u, +1.0%

Value.

[PerpetualCzech]

1H NE/NO Under 28.5 -109 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Wisc/Haw Under 28 -112 for 2 units

Love the degen late Saturday HAW Under numbers.

[PerpetualCzech]

OK, that was uncalled for.

risk 167.58u, return -2.84u, -1.7%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Cleve +7 +107 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H CAR +7 -116 for 1 unit
2H Det/Balt Under 17.5 -112 for 1 unit

[PerpetualCzech]

2H SF +7 -110 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 175.16u, return 0.02u, 0.0%

<bracing for Chap "value" post>

[The Chaperone]

risk 175.16u, return 0.02u, 0.0%

<bracing for Chap "value" post>

I nearly totaled it up and made this post myself the other night :-)

[PerpetualCzech]

2H NYG/Wash Under 19.5 +100 for 2 units

[trixtrix]

2H NYG/Wash Under 19.5 +100 for 2 units

maybe you meant 3rd quarter? :)

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Ohio State +3.5 +118 for 3 units

Would make it 5 units if I could ...

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 180.16u, return 1.56u, 0.9%

Staying true to the Update-Record-Only-After-Wins Rule ...

[Prop Man]

Was this the only 2H you liked today or just happend to be the only one you posted?

[PerpetualCzech]

Yeah, only play today I bet with any vigor. But it might be a good time to reiterate that for practical reasons only a small minority of my HT plays make it to this thread and usually they are not the ones I like the most. This one was a rare exception. Obvious flood of public money made this line just so silly and there was plenty of time to bet and also post.

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Cinci +6.5 +117 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 182.16u, return 3.90u, +2.1%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Balt +6.5 +100 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H East +2.5 -110 for 3 units

Two good reasons to like this one: I get to be on the same side as that pregame steam plus I don't think there's anywhere near the bounceback force in an exhibition game like there is in a normal game.

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 187.46u, return 2.60u, +1.4%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H GST/PHO Under 120 -103 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

Butler -1 +260 2H for 3 units

(better at MB, make it a 5 unit play there lol)

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 191.52u, return -1.46u, -0.8%

[PerpetualCzech]

Game 2 1H Orlando -4 -105 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

Game 5 1H Lakers/Suns Under 109.5 -118 for 2 units

[Big Baller]

Thanks PC,appreciate it.

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Jets +1 -117 for 2 units

Better at MB

[Missouri Girth]

Nice to see the 2nd half plays are back...

[PerpetualCzech]

Was so long I forgot the NBA results and had to look them up lol

risk 198.32u, return +0.44u, 0.2%

[PerpetualCzech]

Random bump

704 Cleve 1H +5 -102 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

I stress it's the *bump* that's random, not the play lol

[PerpetualCzech]

1504 1H Utah -1.5 -101 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

721 2H VC/Kansas Under 77.5 +111 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 205.40u, return +0.64u, +0.3%

[PerpetualCzech]

717 Dall/Pho 1H Under 105 -110 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

Adding 1 more unit on that Dall/Pho Under so make it 3 units in total at 105 -110

[PerpetualCzech]

711 1H Portland +3 -106 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 210.82u, return +1.52u, +0.7%

[The Chaperone]

risk 210.82u, return +1.52u, +0.7%

Who is Jeff Jones?

[PerpetualCzech]

526 Utah 2H +8.5 -107 for 3 units

[2w2p2s]

Glad I was a bit late to the party...+2.5 +100

[PerpetualCzech]

I'm sad. Would've made that one 5 units if I could.

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 214.03u, return -2.73u, -1.3%

[PerpetualCzech]

806 1H Milwaukee +0.5 -101 for 2 units

810 1H LA Clippers +2.5 -102 for 1 unit

[PerpetualCzech]

503 2H Den/Lakers Under 99 -110 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 219.27u, return -3.77u, -1.7%

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Philly Game 1 +5.5 -105 for 1 unit

[PerpetualCzech]

Philly covers the 1H line yet we can still bet them for the game at the closing pregame line.

[PerpetualCzech]

Add another unit on Philly at +5.5 +100

[PerpetualCzech]

Philly covers the 1H line yet we can still bet them for the game at the closing pregame line.

2H Hornets Game 2 +5.5 +102 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 223.32u, return +0.27u, +0.1%

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Philly Game 3 +2.5 -107 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Dall/Port Game 4 Under 95.5 +103 for 2 units
1H SA/Mem Game 3 Under 96.5 +102 for 2 units
1H OKC/Den Game 3 Under 105 +103 for 2 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 229.32u, return +4.37u, +1.9%

[PerpetualCzech]

501 2H Miami Game 4 -3.5 -103 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

2H Dall/Port Game 6 Under 91.5 +112 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 235.41u, return -2.46u, -1.0%

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Chicago Game 1 -5 -106 for 2 units
1H Lakers Game 1 -3 -103 for 3 units

[PerpetualCzech]

1H Miami Game 2 ML -158 to win 2 units

zigzig*

*(C) sundown

[PerpetualCzech]

risk 243.78u, return +0.42u, +0.2%

[The Chaperone]

risk 243.78u, return +0.42u, +0.2%

All you need now is a Miss Cleo avatar and you could compete with LastWaveRocker.

[PerpetualCzech]

753 1H OKC/MEM Game 7 Under 96 -101 for 3 units