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Clint Westwood
01-18-2009, 05:22 AM
Welcome to the Soccer Betting 101 summary; please feel free to add anything you think would help improve or clarify anything related to soccer betting.

Before getting started, be sure you know which team is playing at home; European books use the standard notation, namely the first team is the home team. This is obviously the opposite of the North American notation of the home team being listed second. Watch out for that!

WATCH OUT FOR THE DRAW!

I thought I'd get set out by pointing out the main differences between a money-line soccer wager and one on a regular NBA or NFL money-line wager, for instance. Almost all the major soccer leagues worldwide play regular season games to a set 90 minutes overall, and with the scores level at the end of regulation time, a tie is the result of the match; there is no overtime or shootout or any other deciding factor. This is obviously very important as the outcome of the game has three possibilities.

The Asian Handicap

'Asian Handicap' lines are used in soccer in much the same way as a point-spread line in North American Sports, to level up the two teams in any given soccer match by some degree. Depending on the matchup and overall disparity between the two sides, the Asian Handicap (AH) might be as high as 3.5 goals or as low as 0, or pick 'em. More commonly the AH will be in the region of 0.5 to 0.75.

When an AH is quoted as a quarter-goal, this means that the bookmaker is offering, in essence, half of the wager at pk and half at 0.5. Some bookmakers would express this line as 0, 0.5. For a three-quarter goal AH the wager would be settled at half the bet at 0.5 goal and half at 1 goal.

As an example, for Tottenham v Portsmouth, the AH line is -0.75 Tottenham. A final score of 1-0 to Tottenham and a wager at -0.75 Tottenham would see you win half your wager at -0.5 and push half at -1. Conversely, Portsmouth +0.75 would see you lose the +0.5 half of the wager but push the remaining half at +1. Therefore, with such an AH line, the underdog team must either draw or win outright to win the wager. The favourite must win by more than one goal to win the whole of the wager.

Asian Handicap and Regular Handicap differences

Take care not to fall foul of wagering on a 'regular' handicap line instead of an Asian Handicap line. Regular handicaps are playable mainly at Euro books and these lines will always be in full-goal increments because the tie (via handicap) is still a bettable proposition. For the [above] example, a regular handicap of 1 would see all bets on Tottenham -1 and Portsmouth +1 graded as a loss. The handicap tie would be the graded winner in this case, at Tottenham -1 or Portsmouth +1.

Under-Over/ Total Goals Lines

Under-over lines work in much the same way; the usual line is u-o 2.5 goals but lines of 2, 2.5 (or 2.25) or 2.5, 3 (or 2.75) are not uncommon, and the total may be even higher for some matches.

There are multitudes of prop bets available as well, ranging from correct score predictions through to over/under lines on corners awarded in the match, with just about everything in between. It is worth computing the hold on these markets as the vig imposed by the book may be ridiculously high in some cases.

Next: Odds-comparison sites and decent sites for score updates and information in general.

Clint Westwood
01-26-2009, 12:02 PM
Home Team - Away Team

Just thought I'd mention something that slipped my mind when writing the initial '101' post - Euro books list their lines in the format HOME team first, AWAY team second. The North American list format is the opposite, of course.

Watch out for seemingly irresistible 'home' team prices, that are really playing away :)

The Chaperone
01-26-2009, 04:20 PM
You actually did mention that.

WarDekar
01-26-2009, 06:59 PM
Soccer betting 201 -
What's the best type of distribution to use for scoring?

Clint Westwood
01-27-2009, 01:17 PM
You actually did mention that.

I was just testing to see if anyone was reading my musings.

I will say this, though - in Europe, watch out for the home team being listed the other way around than you North Americans are used to.

:)

It sticks in my mind because it's something I've fallen foul of in the past!

Clint Westwood
01-27-2009, 01:29 PM
Soccer betting 201 -
What's the best type of distribution to use for scoring?

I've always used Poisson distribution but I adjust my projected scores for various factors before applying it.

This has been discussed on SSB before - ah, you were involved even back then, I see!

http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/soccer/index.cgi/noframes/read/1055

and this

http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/soccer/index.cgi/noframes/read/2652

I don't have my soccer data readily available at the moment - there are a few things I'd like to check so I'll put that on my 'to-do' list.

What's your opinion, Wardekar? I see you *used* to think Poisson was a reasonable indicator but daringly is certainly not a fan!

WarDekar
01-27-2009, 04:38 PM
I honestly haven't done much soccer work since then :) But I'm planning on getting to it again in the near future (I hope)

That's why I brought it up- Poisson is certainly a "reasonable" approximation, but it isn't a Poisson distribution for obvious reasons: It doesn't fit the requirements for a Poisson distribution!!!

The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a number of events occurring in a fixed period of time if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event.

Approximations aren't any good when at the times it's wrong, it's really wrong!

WarDekar
01-27-2009, 04:40 PM
Oh and LOL at how much of a noob I was 4 years ago, that was when I first started sportsbetting I guess, but still I was smarter than that wasn't I?

Clint Westwood
01-29-2009, 09:01 AM
Oh and LOL at how much of a noob I was 4 years ago, that was when I first started sportsbetting I guess, but still I was smarter than that wasn't I?

Haha! SSB holds a multitude of dubious posts from us all from years ago. Even PC and Dreamer admit to having some less-than-stellar material in their name stashed away on there!

Prop Man
02-17-2009, 06:36 PM
question on Handicap lines ... why are they so freaking wide? I'd have thought in the best league in the world out of the most followed sport that the line would be pretty tight, but as I look at it, its tough to imagine making money into 40-cent lines. Here's what I'm seeing on the Manchester United / Fulham match:

Pinnacle -1.5 -119 / +1.5 +109
CRIS -1.5 -115 / +1.5 -125
GRK -1.5 -122 / +1.5 -101

Pinnacle is a 10-cent line. That's respectable. GRK I guess is not that far off, a 23-cent line, but still, worse than their typical 20-cent line, and CRIS is beyond this world. So what gives? Aren't the markets in soccer efficient and don't they get enough action where they can make money booking? Or are they so afraid of sharp action?

Clint Westwood
02-19-2009, 01:18 PM
The markets in soccer are very efficient overall - but a lot of offshore books aren't that interested in soccer anyway - many of them don't stray further than offering high-vig 3-way lines only.

I have been away for a few days so I missed your post and the timing of it but Pinnacle are usually better than 10c overall - eg Aston Villa v Chelsea this weekend is at -102/-106.

Man Utd were as high as -110 for that Fulham game so I suppose it's possible you looked sometime just as they were getting heavily backed, but the lines do tend to sharpen up much closer to game time for soccer matches.

As long as you shop around you should never be playing worse than 10c lines on asian handicaps or even 3 way lines. Totals are a bit different and are usually 20c or thereabouts (widely available)