Should NFL Eliminate Overtime Coinflip?

[kimlee]

A Slate article considers ways to determine overtime possession. The most interesting alternative auctions off possession of the ball to the team that offers to take the worse field position.

Auctioning Overtime Possession/ (http://www.slate.com/id/2209436/)

[ahearnb]

It will never happen because it makes WAY too much sense. And it's interesting.

[Prop Man]

Most coaches don't even know when to go for it on 4th down or when not to punt, and you want them all of a sudden to be game theory specialists? Let's face it, that kind of stuff is just not up to guys used to lifting 400 pounds and/or running 4.2/40s. Its a brutal, phsyical sport, and that's where most of the coaches come from (former players). We can't assume they are as smart as Kim Lee, in fact, we shouldn't put that burden on them at all.

[kimlee]

Okay, maybe trading field position for possession is too complicated. Instead they could kickoff from midfield. Or the winning team could start with the ball on their own ten-yard line.

[PerpetualCzech]

This (http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/10/how-important-is-coin-flip-in-ot.html) is a terrific article on the whole subject (thanks to Clint Westwood for forwarding that site to me).

The most interesting piece of info I got from it was that it claims that the 15-yard line is the theoretical "neutral" yard line where it's 50-50 who will score next in the game. (I'm sure that would vary based on the two pregame Team Totals)

[Jon in Oakland]

Most coaches don't even know when to go for it on 4th down or when not to punt, and you want them all of a sudden to be game theory specialists?

Aside from being the fairest possible solution, that's why it would be so great. Couple that change with first team to six and you'd have the perfect OT. OT period ends 3-0 or 3-2 or 5-2 or whatever, team ahead wins. Perfect!

[WarDekar]

Aside from being the fairest possible solution, that's why it would be so great. Couple that change with first team to six and you'd have the perfect OT. OT period ends 3-0 or 3-2 or 5-2 or whatever, team ahead wins. Perfect!

I think I like this idea the best! It's be hilarious to see how bad they fuck up the strategy on that one

[The Chaperone]

Most coaches don't even know when to go for it on 4th down or when not to punt, and you want them all of a sudden to be game theory specialists? Let's face it, that kind of stuff is just not up to guys used to lifting 400 pounds and/or running 4.2/40s. Its a brutal, phsyical sport, and that's where most of the coaches come from (former players). We can't assume they are as smart as Kim Lee, in fact, we shouldn't put that burden on them at all.

A) it's the fairest solution and

B) I think you are underestimating the viewing public.

I think fans with average to above average intelligence would really like this, and the strategy involved. Fans with below average intelligence might not understand the nuance, but even they would prefer it over the coin toss. The coin toss is pretty much universally hated by football fans.

I mean not involving strategy because coaches are neanderthals would be like not having field goals and first downs because coaches can't handle the strategy involved. I mean if we really wanted to we could just turn the game in to the american version of the Ba', but then it wouldn't be football any more.

Yeah they will F up the strategy but we see that in virtually all facets of the game. It doesn't mean we should dumb down the game. Maybe we should get smarter coaches. I'm sure a few owners and GMs are paying attention to the success of thinking coaches, especially Bellicheck. Though the Steelers winning the SB may have been a step in the other direction...

[The Chaperone]

I think I like this idea the best! It's be hilarious to see how bad they fuck up the strategy on that one

You'd pretty much want to be really aggressive pursuing TDs but I'm sure we'd see coaches kicking FGs on 4th and 1, etc.

[Prop Man]

I guess I just don't see why its so unfair to have a coinflip. What has the percentage of coin-flip winners in the OT been in winning the game? I think that number may have been too high based on small sample size, so people rail against the method, because all they look at is what has happened in 50 or so games. I think it is possible the record in those 50 games is not very indicative of the record in future games.

While not exactly the same, here's the percentage of teams that scored first when they received the ball first in the 1Q (with lines of 7 or lower): 55.5% over 3700 games.

And if you want recency - -- since 2004, its actually less - 55.1%

I don't see any reason to think this number should be that much greater in OT, maybe a little - say 3-5%, but not that much. So 60% if you win the coin filp in a normal game. How bad is that? Not that bad to me.

[WarDekar]

You'd pretty much want to be really aggressive pursuing TDs but I'm sure we'd see coaches kicking FGs on 4th and 1, etc.

I was more talking re: taking safeties, but yes of course they would make mistakes kicking FGs as well (those are just more obvious)

[jpg300]

If people have a problem with the coin-flip deciding possession, I would be open to letting the home team decide, in every game except the Super Bowl. Baseball home teams have a built in advantage of "last licks" while hockey home teams have the last line change. Knowing the home team would start with the ball if a game went to OT (except possibly in the most arduous weather conditions) would become part of the game strategy of the final few minutes.

To make it a little fairer for the road team, I would further suggest the kickoff be moved up to the 40 yd line (as it had been for many years in the NFL) or the home team simply be given the choice of taking the ball at the 20 yard line to start the OT.

[Jeff Jones]

Some of you think that a fair outcome of the game is the overtime objective.

TV does not like OT games. It totally disrupts them. Outcomes are for fans, and, I guess, gamblers.

But TV wants the first game over in three hours with all commercial sets sold, and then the same second games sets sold for the late game. Winning and fairness are not in the equation.

"Spend it, and end it. 60 Minutes is next, except on the West Coast."

That's the formula.