trixtrix world cup bets

[trixtrix]

inspired by usa's recent impersonation of the little engine that could, trixtrix is inspired (more like bored) and will attempt his hand at handicapping soccer after losing his ass trading it.. (disclaimer: all my picks are played at play units size)

slovakia +1 +104 betting 1 unit vs. italy (i don't understand the steam on the high visible euro teams, even after france and england showed that their 3rd performance is simply on par w/ their 1st and 2nd showings)

netherlands -.5 -127 to win 1 unit (simply too offensive minded for cameroon even if they have nothing to play for)

ivory coast/n. korea o2.5 goals -111 to win 1 unit (all of n. korea games have gone over and ivory coast will likely not make the goal differential but that shouldn't stop them from trying)

usa pickem -125 vs. ghana to win 2 units (okay so it's a homer pick, but ghana still needs to prove they can score more than 1 goal a game)

spain/chile o2.5 goals -106 to win 1 unit (two offensive minded teams and spain desperate for a win spells over)

germany pickem +109 vs. england betting 2 units (seriously how can they be a dog here?)

[The Chaperone]

I agree with you on Germany. Never would have dreamed they'd be a dog there. I think the USA/Ghana line looks about right, but I agree that Ghana hasn't really shown anything yet in this tournament. I didn't get a chance to watch much of their games, but it looks like both of their results were the benefit of red cards and penalties. The other African teams have looked dreadful as well, which doesn't help their perception. If I had to back a team in that one, it would be the US.

[Clint Westwood]

germany pickem +109 vs. england betting 2 units (seriously how can they be a dog here?)

Maybe because Germany lost to Serbia?

Seriously, I would side with Germany betting-wise. I already have them to progress to the QF from eariler in the tournament so I won't be adding to that bet. I disagree though that England's third game was on a par with the first two - it was vastly superior. Also, Carragher will be back from suspension for the Germany game, and now it looks like Jerry will not have Schweinsteiger available, although Klose back in is a big + for them.

Ghana are a joke team - Gyan up front is terrible - they needed a free penalty from dickhead Serbia to actually progress to this stage and even needed help to scrape a draw v Australia. US is the only side to take in that game, I agree.

Spain-Chile over - seems too easy/obvious, and Chile might not be so willing to play all-out offense against Spain today.

Ivory Coast - I wouldn't trust them against N Korea and am considering either team score NO and/or u2.5.

[trixtrix]

after a blazing 4-0 start, all converted believers shoult goto trixanglesports.com and any nagging non-believers will be tossed to the christian-fed lions; giving hope to all that you too, can become a rtp handicapping champion by watching 3 hrs of soccer a day for a week, and spending 30 mins on handicapping

7.) germany to advance +103 betting 1 unit vs. england (miss-timed the price movement on this bet, but this seems like another obv winner. whoever has the younger and fresher leg gets stronger as the game goes on.. and youth is not england's side.. this ain't rocket science folks. seig heil!)

[Big Baller]

Nice work-
What you got for the Uruguay/S.Korea match?

[The Chaperone]

7.) germany to advance +103 betting 1 unit vs. england (miss-timed the price movement on this bet, but this seems like another obv winner. whoever has the younger and fresher leg gets stronger as the game goes on.. and youth is not england's side.. this ain't rocket science folks. seig heil!)

This was similar to my reasoning when I took them on the 'to advance' line rather than the 90 minute line. Also, I'm not that familiar with the German goalkeeping but it can't be any worse than the situation with England. Of course that becomes a bigger factor if we go to PKs.

Also in addition to the obvious correlation with age and fitness and longer matches, it seems like you can almost predict which teams will be in better shape by general cultural stereotypes. The cultures that preach discipline (Japan, Korea, Germany, etc.) ain't gonna have guys on their team who aren't in shape.

[trixtrix]

8.) S. Korea +1 -180 (greek) vs. uruguay to win 1 unit (was forced onto this by the market, had no opinion on this game until the whole world it seems just woke up and bet uruguay, even still if we give fair price of +110 +.5 to s.korea, according to my calculations +1 still hovers around -200 due to the expected low total nature of this game)

[trixtrix]

9.) Argentina/Mexico O2.25 Goals -107 to win 1 unit (mexico and argentina plays extremely fast, *must resist retarded joke regarding fast mexicans..**, mexico's has two of the most talented forwards yet not much of a defense, argentina is one of those teams that does not go into a shell to protect a lead **ahem, uruguay**)

[trixtrix]

(4-0-2) +4.04 units

[trixtrix]

(7-0-2) +8.25 units

admit it, like a stinkbug you can't just ignore me, cuz i'm more tongue 'n cheek than a nun orgy

[trixtrix]

10.) Netherland/Slovakia o2.25 -107 to win 1 unit (slovakia get tired towards late and netherland is not all that concerned w/ def)

11.) Chile +1 -117 to win 1 unit (brazil plays a def oriented philosphy and chile played head to head w/ spain for 1st half discounting the retarded goalie play)

[The Chaperone]

My two cents... if you must bet an over in the knockout round, take the 1h over.

[trixtrix]

12.) Slovakia +1.5 -145 (greek) to win 1 unit (forced onto this again by the market, hold your nose and dive in!)

[The Chaperone]

What do I know? Your over looks solid now, but how can un 2.5 -110 be bad?

[trixtrix]

not as good as +1.5 -143 imo at the greek right now

[trixtrix]

(9-0-2) +10.25 units

trixtrix's ridiculous lucky streak continues, i think i'm fck'd for the rest of my life now once the reversion to mean starts, in the mean time, i'm aiming to break smartmonies' record

[trixtrix]

chile +1 +103 at youwager

[trixtrix]

(9-1-2) +9.08 units

streak is over folks, nothing to see here..

[The Chaperone]

It was nice while it lasted. Happy to see you lose with me so I can come down off tilt. I figured you had Brazil -2.5 +450 or something.

[trixtrix]

mon pick:

Japan +.5 -128 to win 1 unit (Japan better side than paraguay imo)

[The Chaperone]

I actually think Japan seems like a square dog. I'd still be willing to back them vs. a Euro team, but probably gonna pass on the side here other than rogue numbers.

[trixtrix]

(10-1-2) +10.08 units

14.) Spain/ Portugal O2 goals -118 to win 1 unit

[trixtrix]

(10-2-2) +8.9 units

[trixtrix]

going to change methodlogy slightly as we increase our bet-size by a bit as well

15.) Netherland/Brazil o2.25 goals +104 risking 2 units

16.) Brazil to advance -205 to win 1 unit

17.) Uruguay/Ghana u2 goals -116 to win 2 units

18.) Uruguay to advance -185 to win 1 unit

[trixtrix]

Default
(12-3-3) +9.9 units

[trixtrix]

19.) Germany/Argentina o2.5 Goals +106 risking 2 units

[trixtrix]

(13-3-3) +12.02 units