Groovinmahoovin MLB play of the day

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

919 CHW +107 (Garcia/Eveland)

Wrong team favored.

[PerpetualCzech]

Are you sure we're not supposed to wait until it hits -101?

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I blame all of my inability to retain information on the fact that my brain is filled with useless crap, because I know exactly what you're talking about there, but I think it applied specifically to home teams.

Since I should probably provide a disclaimer with everything serious I post, these "plays of the day" will be actual plays I am betting for real money, and how appropriately anti-Manosesque that my actual bet is CHW +1.5 -181.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Actually, poking around further, I think that "playing -101 but not +107" thing of Manos's applied to any team that was shut out the day before and the line was between -101 and -120. Fortunately for me, the White Sox just missed being shut out yesterday.

Although now I may need to give my pal Manos a call as I see the Pirates are -106 tomorrow after being shut out yesterday (they don't play today) so I'll need to find out if the subset applied to only games the following day, or if it also applies to the next game when the team shutout has a day off.

[PerpetualCzech]

Apologies for the hijack but I reread that part of the Manos saga yesterday from the links you posted and couldn't resist. I can't remember the subset, only that he advocated betting certain plays at -10x rather than +10x.

I just joined you with some +113 from Matchbook.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

res 0-1 -1u ROI -100%.

957 FLA +237 (Sanchez/Halladay)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I guess I should post closer to gametime LOL. Adding another 1u at +279 which is just ridiculous.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Apologies for the hijack but I reread that part of the Manos saga yesterday from the links you posted and couldn't resist. I can't remember the subset, only that he advocated betting certain plays at -10x rather than +10x.

I read part of that saga yesterday too and found that system again. The system was to play any team that was shut out in their last game that was a small favorite, and I think he defined small as -101 to -120. I asked him how the system would respond to a game if Pinnacle had a previously shut out team +106 but Greek or CRIS's 20c line had them at -103, would he play them at Greek/CRIS at -103, but he didn't have a response to that.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

What a bad beat for Marlins RL bettors. I thought I might get the "rainout escape" with that one.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

0-2 -3u -100%

914 ATL +116 (Jiminez/Kawakami)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Another awful beat. The odds of the opposing pitcher throwing a no-hitter is roughly 1 in 1200. It's truly a bad beat when you lose to a 1 in 1200 shot on your 3rd posted play.

Interestingly enough, tomorrow's "GM play of the day," posted around 11am EST when the overnight limits are lifted, will probably be Arizona. In a Kreskin-esque bit of foreshadowing, PC mentioned Manos's system of playing teams who were shutout the day before but only if the line is -101 to -120, which includes cases where a dog line later becomes a favorite. ARI was +105 and has since moved to -101, and since they were shutout yesterday, it will likely not only be a GM play of the day but will also fit Manos's system. Hopefully that play will allow me to "get out of my slump" while "breaking the bank in one day."

" But the fact that I sell picks for a living did not cloud their vision, no sir, they are right and true, and only out to protect this fabulous message board from evil people who want to promote themselves and lead the uneducated masses to wagering hell. Knights of the Round Table rejoice. LMFAO. Hypocrites."

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD 0-3 -4u -100% ROI

915 BAL +141 (Bergesen/Fister)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

0-4 -5u -100% ROI

967 KC +1.5 -148 (Davies/Eveland)

No special reason for taking the RL, it's just better than ML +134 at a total of 9.2 IMO.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

1-4 -4u 6.48u risked -61.7% ROI

929 BAL +178 (Millwood/Hernandez)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

1-5 -5u 7.48u risked -66.84% ROI

954 WAS +161 (Jimenez/Hernandez)

Fading Jimenez worked well last time, so let's try it again! Hopefully he doesn't channel the ghost of Johnny Van Der Meer.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

1-6 -6u 8.48 risked -70.75% ROI

914 ARI +166 (Hamels/Benson)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

974 TB -147 (Romero/Niemann)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

3-6 -3.34u on 10.95u risked, -30.5% ROI

915 ATL -114 (Hanson/Pelfrey)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

3-7 -4.48u on 12.09u risked, -37.05% ROI

965 BOS -141 (Beckett/Eveland)

I'm pretty sure this is the first time in my life I've ever bet Beckett as a road favorite, but I guess it makes sense since BOS and Beckett aren't as bad as their performance thus far would indicate nor are TOR and Eveland that good. It still seems weird playing Beckett as a moderate road favorite as a "contrarian play" though.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

4-7 -3.48u on 13.5u risked, -25.78% ROI

974 BAL +212 (Sabathia/Guthrie)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

5-7 -4.48u on 14.5u risked, -30.89% ROI

917 OAK +150 (Duchsherer/Romero)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

correction, that last one should read 4-8 but the units and ROI were right

4-9 -5.48u on 15.5u risked, -35.35% ROI

967 CHW +233 (Garcia/Pettitte)

might be better to wait but I won't be around later.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

4-10 -6.48u on 16.5u risked, -39.27% ROI

951 STL +206 (Lohse/Halladay)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

4-11 -7.48u on 17.5u risked, -42.74% ROI

968 CLE +138 (Verlander/Masterson)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

4-12 -8.48u on 18.5u risked, -45.84% ROI

960 COL -107 (Kendrick/Smith)

[Big Baller]

Even though you are due.. what am I missing? Smith has been horrible this year. Is someone scratched I don't know about? Weather? I'd have to Fade this one.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I don't put much stock in a 6 week sample, but even if you do, Kendrick's been pretty lousy too, and the Rockies historically have had a significantly higher HFA compared to other teams. I made the line COL -131 if Tulowitzki plays and about -123 if he doesn't (left the last game with an injury and is ?)

If you'd prefer a different play, I've also played TOR +175 but to make record keeping easier I'm only posting one play a day.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

4-13 -9.48u on 19.5u risked, -51.28% ROI

I can't decide between two plays, so I'll Yosh and post both.

907 HOU +219 (Myers/Penny)
912 COL +170 (Halladay/Cook)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

5-13 -7.29u on 20.5u risked, -35.56% ROI

960 COL +167 (Halladay/Cook)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

6-13 -5.62u on 21.5u risked, -26.14% ROI

913 OAK +178 (Sheets/Wilson)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

6-14 -6.62u on 22.5u risked, -29.42% ROI

969 TEX +1.5 -190 (Harden/Cecil)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

6-15 -8.52u on 24.4u risked, -34.92% ROI

914 COL game 2 -150 (Atilano/Hammel)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

7-15 -7.52u on 25.9u risked, -29.03%

960 COL (Olsen/Francis) -117

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

8-14 -6.52u on 27.07u risked -24.09% ROI

919 MIN -102 (Slowey/Eveland)

[sundown]

im a big fan of the min/ovr correlated p. been hunting best ratios.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Nice, didn't see your play until after the game as I was enjoying a competitive Pirates/Phillies game in the rain.

9-14 -5.52u on 28.09u risked, -19.65% ROI

973 BOS +1.5 -123 (Beckett/Sabathia)

With a total of 8.7ish I think the RL's a little better than ML +170.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

10-14 -4.52u on 29.32 risked, -15.42% ROI

Full card today but I didn't see anything I liked. Might add something later if there's a line move.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

922 BOS -119 (Baker/Buchholz)

Very marginal (my line is -128) but it's the best play I see on the card.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

11-14 -3.52u on 30.51u risked, -11.54% ROI

959 NYM +104 (Maine/Atilano)

[Big Baller]

Nice work Mahoovin. I rode the last couple winners. Thanks.
Don't want to be a kook, but your record went from 7-15 to 8-14.
With all the talk about records, might want to check.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I assume the units are right, though?

[Big Baller]

Yeah,looks right. I'm out of town- working off my phone.
Keep it rolling-

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I double-check my spreadsheet later on the units. I've been doing the W-L record manually since I don't track W-L records in moneyline sports; I was only including that because I thought we had to but I see now it's just units risked, net units, and ROI required, so I'll just stick with that from now on. Thanks for the correction.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

-2.48u on 31.51u risked, -7.87% ROI

Can't decide between two plays so you get two of them:

907 BAL +149 (Hernandez/Olsen)
927 DET +164 (Willis/Billingsley)

BAL's a "hold your nose" play but BAL isn't as bad as their record nor is Olsen as good as his, and for those who prefer discussions of current form, the "Department of Multiple Endpoints" reports that BAL's been about .500 since their 2-16 start. LAA's offense isn't good enough to justify being such a heavy favorite, especially without Ethier, and Manny's been nursing a sore toe. He's expected back tonight per DonBest but if he doesn't play, that's a bonus.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

record update later

927 CHW -127 (Volstad/Floyd)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

record after games of 5/21, -1.99u on 33.51 risked, ROI -5.94%

Bonus play after the line move:

980 SEA +113 (Richard/Snell) 2u

Simple contrarian play, SD and Richard not as good as their record, SEA not as bad as their record. I've been betting SD a fair bit as of late but they really shouldn't be a road favorite here.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

-2.99u on 36.78u risked, ROI -8.13%

All Milton Bradley's gotta do to tie it is hit a long fly ball and he can't even do that. FU Milton Bradley. In case I forget to post tomorrow:

907 BOS +210 (Wakefield/Halladay)

I thought PIT +290 with Duke in the last start was a bit too high (my fair line was +250ish) but it was at least understandable since PIT is pretty lousy. But you really mean to tell me BOS with Wakefield's only about 6.5% more likely to win @ PHI and Halladay as PIT with Duke was? (Utley was out in that PIT game, but Rollins has since been DL'ed, so that's only a small part of it.)

[BigDaddy]

going into today you should be -1.99u on 35.78u risked

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

SEA last night was a 2u play which is probably the discrepancy, although I see putting the units at the end could be easily missed, so I'll put the units first the next time I play a multi-unit play.

[BigDaddy]

SEA last night was a 2u play which is probably the discrepancy, although I see putting the units at the end could be easily missed, so I'll put the units first the next time I play a multi-unit play.

yes i missed the 2u part as most of your plays have all been 1u i think

sorry

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

-0.89u on 38.78u risked, -2.29% ROI

955 BOS +122 (Buchholz/Davis)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+0.33u on 39.78u risked, +0.83% ROI

901 PIT +164 (Maholm/Leake)

anti-steam play, CIN and Leake not nearly good enough to be favored by this much even against the lowly Pirates.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+1.97u on 40.78u risked, +4.83% ROI

2u 977 BOS +1.5 -138 (Lackey/Garza)

RL better than ML +150 with a total of 8.2. I'm a little surprised this line is so high but then again BOS/Lackey were around +138 last week vs PHI/Hamels.

[The Chaperone]

How much for your service? I'd like to get all your plays rather than just the Plays of the day.

[Big Baller]

"Don't call it a comeback"
-LL CoolJ

Nice work Groovin

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Record update later:

904 CHC -120 (Ely/Lilly)

Not a big believer in Ely and neither are most of the projection methods.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+4.97u on 44.74u risked, 11.11% ROI

973 CHW +210 (Garcia/Price)

TB/Price are very good but I think this line is a bit too high. Most of the projection methods have Garcia as reasonably average or a little bit above average, and CHW's offense should be better than the 4.1 r/g they've averaged this year.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+7.07u on 45.74u risked, 15.47% ROI

One can only imagine how Steve Fenic would advertise a run like mine, especially since I'm actually ahead overall and posting plays against legitimate lines, two things he can't say for his plays. Not to mention that I don't need suckers to pay me $25/mo for my selections.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

927 CHW +134 (Danks/Davis)

Not too excited about anything on the card today but this one seems a little high. Danks can't be expected to sustain a 2.27 ERA but I still think he's a fair bit better than Davis, and the Rays can't be expected to sustain a 70%-ish winning clip either.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

913 ARI +170 (Lopez/Billingsley)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+5.04u on 47.74u risked, +10.56% ROI

963 ARI +123 (Haren/Ely)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+4.04u on 48.74u risked +8.29% ROI

917 BAL +287 (Bergesen/Hughes)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+3.04u on 49.74u risked +6.11% ROI

953 MIL +224 (Capuano/Johnson)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+2.04u on 50.74u risked, +4.02u

914 ARI -116 (Cook/Kennedy)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Lol suckout. No picks 6/5 or 6/6.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

record update later, 960 CLE -122 (Atilano/Westbrook)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

973 SEA +159 (Rowland-Smith/Suppan)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

2u 903 BAL +1.5 +105 (Guthrie/Lincecum)

RL should be a bit better with ML +224 and a total of 6.5.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

record as of games of Jun 15 is +3.04u on 54.12u risked, 5.62% ROI

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+1.04u on 56.12u risked, 1.85% ROI

927 BAL +1.5 -153 (Matusz/LeBlanc)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+2.04u on 57.65u risked, 3.54% ROI

977 BAL +175 (Millwood/Richard)

This line may get better but I don't know if I'll be around later. The RL of +1.5 -132 may be better, not always sure with these 6 and 6.5 totals.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

925 BAL +150 (Arrieta/Garland)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

911 CHC +146 (Lilly/Hernandez)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

961 CLE +181 (Laffey/Harang)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

921 BOS -140 (Buchholz/Bumgarner)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

2u 962 BAL -118 (Atilano/Guthrie)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

902 FLA -101 (Dickey/Nolasco)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Bonus play, 918 CLE +141 (Romero/Westbrook)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

961 ARI +291 (Willis/Wainwright)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

record as of games of Jun 29

+7.66u on 68.42u risked, 11.2% ROI

909 COL +128 (Francis/Richard)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

No Adrian Gonzalez and the Padres still put up 13 in Petco LOL!

+6.66u on 69.42 risked, 9.59% ROI

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

968 BAL +130 (Cahill/Arrieta)

I suspect I'll be playing BAL quite a bit the rest of the year... FWIW, I thought I posted HOU earlier but must have forgotten and the line has now dropped a lot from the overnight, but if that line yoyos back I'll probably post that as a bonus play.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+5.56u on 70.42 risked, 6.67% ROI

923 BAL +215 (Bergesen/Wakefield)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+4.56u on 71.42 risked, 6.38% ROI. (Made an error in yesterday's figure, it was 7.89% ROI yesterday.)

972 CLE -110 (Mortensen/Westbrook)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+5.56u on 71.52 risked, 7.77% ROI

911 HOU +143 (Myers/Leblanc)

Sundown played the 5i line which may be a little better because SD's bullpen is a fair bit better than HOU's, but I personally played the game line since Matchbook's market is a lot better on full game lines and I'm trying to mimic my own betting as much as possible with these picks.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+4.56u on 72.52 risked, 6.29% ROI

971 KC +196 (Bannister/Hernandez)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+6.52u on 73.52 risked, 8.87% ROI

915 FLA +1.5 -138 (Volstad/Padilla)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Now that's respect. Line doesn't budge on Pinnacle for 7.5 hours, then 4 minutes after I post, it moves 4 cents better.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+5.14u on 74.52 risked, 6.9% ROI

969 BAL +1.5 +108 (Bergesen/Scherzer)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+4.14u on 75.52 risked, 5.48% ROI

2u, 921 BAL +228 (Guthrie/Hunter)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+8.7u on 77.52 risked, 11.22% ROI

965 CHC +1.5 -156 (Lilly/Billingsley)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

925 BAL +2.5 -103 (Tillman/Lee)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

updated record as of games of Jul 9:

+7.14u on 79.08u risked, 9.03% ROI

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+8.14u on 80.11u risked, 10.2% ROI

901 MIL +164 (Bush/Jurrjens)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+7.14u on 79.11u risked, 9.03% ROI

963 ARI +100 (Haren/Garland)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+6.14u on 80.11u risked, 7.66% ROI

964 ARI +115 (Dickey/Enright)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+7.29u on 81.11u risked, 8.99% ROI

908 FLA -108 (Hammel/Nolasco)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+8.29u on 82.11u risked, 10.1% ROI

969 KC +1.5 +124 (Chen/Sabathia)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+7.29u on 83.11u risked, 8.77% ROI

914 ARI +1.5 -148 (Sanchez/Jackson)

Odd line movement on this one, the ML is worse than the opener, the total is lower, but the RL is 9 cents better. I'll bite.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+5.81u on 84.59u risked, 6.87% ROI

966 ARI -107 (Bumgarner/Kennedy)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+4.74u on 85.66u risked, 5.53% ROI

929 LAA +1.5 +107 (Bell/Hunter)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+3.74u on 86.66u risked, 4.32% ROI

959 BAL +205 (Bergesen/Morrow)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I didn't handicap baseball for the past month-ish due to a shortage of time.

958 CHC -118 (Myers/Wells)

I liked MIL a bit more when I placed my bet earlier today but lost too much line value on Pin to post it, so the Cubbies it is. HOU's offense is too weak to be essentially on par with CHC in this matchup prior to HFA, IMO.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

A good omen here, as EOG's newest moderator, Iceman, is on the other side for a bunch of small sample, multiple end point reasons, i.e. "Wells ERA over 6 in this last 7 starts, Houston has won 12 out of 16 and 13 of them are on the road," and then Winkydonk chimes in with "Couldn't agree more with anything you said. Having said that something just "smells" funny here so I am passing. When a game looks soooooooo obvious as to which side to play that is enough to scare me away from a game and thus PASS for me because something tells me Cubs win this one because they shouldn't."

I'm liking my selection more and more!

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

977 BOS -105 (Buchholz/Cahill)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I keep forgetting about this. Have to update record later but I'm pretty sure the last 3 all lost so should be a hair above even.

959 LAA +107 (Santana/Carmona)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

919 LAA +1.5 -145 (Haren/Davis)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

956 MIL +101 (Bailey/Capuano)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

927 CHW +134 (Buehrle/Cahill)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

961 LAD/COL first 5 innings ov5 -105 (Kuroda/Francis)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD +1.58u on 94.39u risked, 1.67% ROI

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

923 NYY +107 (Vazquez/Cecil)

No Posada for NYY but it sounds like everyone else is starting. Not sure if they'll rest people after clinching a playoff berth and might be better to wait until lineups are out, but I have to head out now.

[PerpetualCzech]

Would winning the division to avoid Minnesota in the first round be a big deal?

[kdog]

The way the Yankees have been able to handle Minnesota in the past I wouldn't think that would be their primary concern especially with no Morneau for the Twins. The extra home game if they meet Tampa in the ALCS has value though. Not that either the Yanks or Rays can't win in the others park because they can but each play a style more suited to their own stadium.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Considering how much baseball HFA is overrated in conventional wisdom, I would think NYY will give a decent effort to try to win the division.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

FWIW I have TEX and MIN as pretty similar in ability and I think most of the stathead measures have the two as pretty similar in performance as well. NYY will gain a bit from having HFA vs TEX as the division winner as opposed to MIN having HFA vs them, but the difference is probably insignificant. This assumes both Mauer and Hamilton return and are 100% and assumes Morneau does not return.

[The Chaperone]

People talking about the importance of HFA (especially in the second round and beyond) always tilts me, but never moreso than in baseball. We are splitting hairs here.

a=odds top 2 teams both advance from first round
b=odds that series goes to 7 games
c=HFA swing for that game (10% max in baseball)

a*b*c=???

I'll let you do the math, but the number ain't that big.

Much more important to get a favorable first round opponent if possible.

I've been playing cards throughout Twins country for the past couple weeks and everyone has been preoccupied with getting the best record in baseball. I've tried to explain a couple times that the bigger sweat is whether or not they can avoid the Yankees in the first round (completely out of their hands at this point), but I just get blank stares.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I'm not home and spreadsheetless but I'm pretty sure that given two equal teams the series price is roughly -106 to the home team. More useful in the "stupid forum posts" thread, but there was a 2+2 thread last month where some guy lined a potential TB/NYY series as NYY -150 w/o HFA and NYY -250 w/ HFA.

In this specific scenario, NYY shouldn't care who they play in the first round. It's huge for MIN to play TB instead of NYY, but there's nothing they can do about it other than pray to the giant teapot orbiting the earth.

[PerpetualCzech]

the bigger sweat is whether or not they can avoid the Yankees in the first round

It's huge for MIN to play TB instead of NYY?

I don't get it, why?

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I think MIN's a significantly bigger dog w/o HFA vs NYY compared to w/HFA vs TB, probably about a 10% difference. It would take too long for me to explain my numbers, but at a first glance most of the stathead numbers have TB, MIN, and TEX very equal although I'm not sure if the numbers I'm looking at adjust for strength of division. BP's 3rd order numbers have BOS fractionally better than TB which says something considering all of BOS's injuries.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

FWIW, I'm pretty sure I'll be fading TB in their first round matchup. If it ends up being MIN I really hope they'll use Baker if they need a 4th pitcher rather than Blackburn. Aside from the iron-knee in using a Baker from Minnesota, Baker's ERA was about a run lower this year, the Davenport translated ERA has Baker a bit less than a run better, and I have him about a run better in ability. Blackburn just doesn't strike anybody out so I have no idea why they want him to be the 4th starter.

[Jon in Oakland]

FWIW, I'm pretty sure I'll be fading TB in their first round matchup. If it ends up being MIN I really hope they'll use Baker if they need a 4th pitcher rather than Blackburn. Aside from the iron-knee in using a Baker from Minnesota, Baker's ERA was about a run lower this year, the Davenport translated ERA has Baker a bit less than a run better, and I have him about a run better in ability. Blackburn just doesn't strike anybody out so I have no idea why they want him to be the 4th starter.

I'm on to you. This post will come up in all future site searches for the word "Baker."

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I faded Baker once back in May, but I see that by listing pitchers in the (A/B) form it prevents pitcher A's name from turning up in searches. So your theory may have merit!

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

YTD +0.58u on 95.39u risked, 0.60% ROI

913 ARI +1.5 -153 (Kroneke/Ely)

Not sure how well the ML/RL conversion charts work when your bullpen is as bad as ARI's, although ARI's record isn't all that bad in 1 run games (19-22) so perhaps there's no correlation there.

Not anti-Yoshing here (and not much point in anti-Yoshing a mostly break-even record), I just keep forgetting to post plays. I'm pretty sure I'll be on ATL vs SF if the playoff pairings play out that way, in addition to fading TB vs their first round opponent.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

BTW, the -153 isn't a typo, the RL got popped to -163 about 15 minutes after I posted.

[The Chaperone]

not much point in anti-Yoshing a mostly break-even record

Where is the Wha? Guy when you need him? Being up .58 units with 3 days left in the season is actually the perfect spot for an anti-Yosh. Then you can claim XX straight winning seasons.

[The Chaperone]

Still room for one more play as long as it's -157 or less and only 1 unit.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

But I have the entire playoffs left too and can easily Yosh there if need be.

[The Chaperone]

I don't get it, why?

Game 1 NYY -145 @ MIN

[PerpetualCzech]

Game 1 NYY -145 @ MIN

I watched the latter half of the game rooting Groovin on because I misread this as a pick of his.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

For some reason RTP wouldn't log in from my phone yesterday, but I actually played MIN. I had all 3 Wednesday overs, TEX series, MIN game 1, and TEX game 2, so pretty close to a wash for what I wasn't able to post, especially since the TEX series line had been bet down by the time Pinnacle put anything up. Big LOL at whoever bet Greek's initial series line of TEX +175/TB -210 up to +180/220. (Not 100% sure about the takeback but it definitely moved from +175 up to +180.)

I'll Yosh by posting everything I play for the playoffs from here on out:

962 MIN +110 (Pettitte/Pavano)
ATL +136 for the series vs SF

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

People talking about the importance of HFA (especially in the second round and beyond) always tilts me, but never moreso than in baseball. We are splitting hairs here.

a=odds top 2 teams both advance from first round
b=odds that series goes to 7 games
c=HFA swing for that game (10% max in baseball)

a*b*c=???

I'll let you do the math, but the number ain't that big.

I didn't have a spreadsheet handy when I replied to this before, but given two equal teams, the line on a 5 game series is roughly -106 to the team with HFA and on a 7 game series, -105. That doesn't assume any extra HFA in game 5 or game 7.

I was pretty shocked when the initial TEX series prices were so high (my fair line on the series was +109), especially the actual game lines have been pretty close to mine. I didn't play game 1, won't play game 3 at the current line, and while I played TEX game 2, it was a pretty marginal play.

[PerpetualCzech]

Matchbook runline for Atlanta looks cheap at the moment. Nice low total.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

MIN lost so 1 less unit in the YTD, I'll just wait until round 1 is over to recap record.

983 CIN +182 (Arroyo/Oswalt)
965 ATL +133 (Hanson/Cain)

Note that ATL opened +147 and was bet down to +136 within a half hour. Maybe I'm square for thinking this but I don't really mind taking lost value when the value was only there for a half hour after the opener. I'd like that play a lot less if the +147 lasted for an entire day.

Also, CIN may get better but I'll probably forget to post it if I don't post it now.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Matchbook runline for Atlanta looks cheap at the moment. Nice low total.

Good catch there, it was interesting that Matchbook basically had Pinnacle's price on the -1.5 so you could get very close to Pinnacle's no-vig line (minus the commission) on the +1.5. Then again, Bucsfan, the best MLB handicapper on the internet, was on the ML -152, RL -1.5 +152 combo, so maybe Matchbook follows his lead!

[PerpetualCzech]

983 CIN +182 (Arroyo/Oswalt)

I just got filled at +1.5 -121 at matchbook which I think is 1.5-2% better fwiw

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

My posting choices were +182 and +1.5 -127 and I thought the former was a hair better. I haven't bet it yet, but between the current Matchbook +186 and +1.5 -121 I think it's very close.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I was going to wait but the line ticked up a bit, so

3u 919 PHI/SF (listed) ov5.5 -120

This is actually only as strong as anything else I've posted but in the tradition of Bucsfan, Fezzik, and anyone else who Yoshes, this one's for you!

[The Chaperone]

I don't get it. I thought this one would be much lower. Like 5.5 with a juiced up under. Isn't this basically the same type number we got in PHI with the same pitchers and same teams (albeit that was a 6 with juice on the under). I guess maybe the increased likelihood of B9 and or/extra innings being played maybe keeps this one up. Obviously SF is more of a pitchers park.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

The three year park factor for SF and PHI is actually identical right now, although that's obviously not the common perception. On the other hand the previous game matchup did open at something like 6.5 +105 and got bet all the way down, but there were weird wind issues with that game too--I forget the exact direction the wind was blowing at game time but the wind that day was a pretty consistent 15-20 mph.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

As I said previously I keep forgetting to post here. I've felt the PHI/SF games have all been lined almost exactly correctly, the only game I played was PHI g4 and even that I only played because of an error in my VLOOKUP function that returned a slightly incorrect value and made my fair line PHI -107 instead of the actual PHI -101, and the latter would have been too thin to bet. g5 looks right to me, as well.

I played TEX g1 and NYY g3 and lost both of those, so I suppose my RTP record is better off for me not having posted. I'd like to play TEX in g6 Friday with a bit of line help so hopefully the "NYY must win" angle gets a little overrated.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+2.91u on 104.52u risked, 2.78% ROI

Perfect spot for an anti-yosh but I think there's a lot of value in TEX to win the series. I think game 1 is lined correctly as Lee isn't as significantly better than the other TEX starters as much as the line would indicate IMO, but I'm going to bet and post this now rather than simply wait for a game 2 adjusted price because it would not surprise me to see money come in on TEX like it came in on them in the division series, and I think Pinnacle opened this -110 while I was asleep so money has already come in on TEX.

3u TEX -126 to win the WS

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

2u TEX/SF ov5.5 -107 (Lee/Lincecum)

I thought about waiting on this but too many other sharps I know are on the over and even the squares on all of the donkey forums are saying "Of course the under is the play but I'm afraid to bet under a total that low." The key for me here is that AT&T Park has actually played neutral or as a slight hitters park for the last 6 or 7 years but there's still a perception it's a pitcher's park. The gametime temperature should be in the low to mid 60s so no cold weather to keep the ball from carrying, either.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

1u TEX +106 (Wilson/Cain)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

1u TEX -152 (Sanchez/Lewis)

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+4.91u on 109.18u risked, 4.5% ROI, with 3u on TEX -126 WS pending.

Looks like the game 4 line is right and I'd be surprised if I find value in game 5 since the game 1 line was right in sync with my fair line, but I expect I'll play TEX in games 6 and 7, if necessary, anti-Yoshing be damned.

[The Chaperone]

I've already decided on TEX game 7 about an hour before game time. I'm guessing the Giants get a *lot* of action on the 'home teams never lose game 7 angle.' FYI home teams are 8-0 in our lifetime, but something like 3-10 pre-1970-something.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

When I looked that up a couple years ago, I saw roughly the same results, I think the home team in game 7 was something like 11-10 or 12-11 overall with better performances in recent times. Assuming g7 is Sanchez/Lewis, that closed TEX -164 on Pin, so using 4% for HFA vs neutral, that's TEX -118 for g7 in SF, but I'd be pretty surprised if TEX was favored by more than -105ish and I would not be surprised at all if they're a dog.

[The Chaperone]

They will be a dog in game 7 imo.

[PerpetualCzech]

Giants in Game 5 is tempting. I smell an element of "Texas must win" bullshit in that number. Thoughts?

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

The game 5 line is roughly the same as the game 1 line when HFA is flipped. Game 1 closed TEX -123, and adding 8% to that is -171.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

+1.13u on 112.96u risked, 1.000% ROI, a very nice round number. If only I'd used Bucsfan's overall risk amount, I could brag about a +30u season.

[The Chaperone]

Another winning season.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

Thank god Texas didn't win tonight while shitting the bed in game 6, with a good enough line that might have made me bet 1.5u I could have ended up in the red.