An Olympic selection

[ComptrBob]

Not many bets have their genesis in events of more than 35 years ago, but this one does.

I was ski patrolling at a small ski area in Washington state and occasionally I would ski with the guy who ran the ski shop (later became the GM of the area and part-owner). He was known for his "bump" skiing, that is, blasting thru moguls at high speed. I have since skied many of the most difficult mogul fields in North America, from the west face of KT22 at Squaw Valley to Exhibition and Limelight at Sun Valley to Goats Gully at Whistler to runs at Jackson Hole, Aspen and Telluride, so I know good mogul skiers when I see them. This guy was one good mogul skier. On one vacation ski trip to Whistler Mtn, I still vividly remember him skiing thru a mogul field and shattering one of his skis. He had a few choice words about the ski's manufacturer. The guy's name is Pat Deneen.

Well, fast forward to the present, Pat's son, Patrick Deneen, is competing for the USA in the freestyle moguls. If skiing ability is inherited, then this might be the definitive case for it. This kid started skiing when he was 11 months old. He just turned 22 years old, I have several pairs of skis that are older than he is! Anyway, he is a real up and comer, probably the best American mogul skier at this stage of his career, however he also has been known to occasionally crash and burn. He skis today, Sunday, at Cypress Mtn just outside North Vancouver (weather permitting). Conditions are perfect for a skier from the Pacific NW - slushy and crappy.

He has really tough competition including the defending champion from the 2006 Olympics (who is another interesting story, a Canadian who got feed up with their freestyle ski program and went to Australia). Here's hoping he has a good day.

Warning: Betting any form of Alpine or Freestyle skiing is very dicey because one tiny mistake can completely ruin the chances to medal. Limits are low, so this is in the mold of a "entertainment" bet.

Patrick Deneen +2050 to win the Gold Medal - Freestyle Moguls (theGreek.com)
Patrick Deneen +111 vs Bryon Wilson - Freestyle Moguls (Pinnacle)

[PerpetualCzech]

I'm in!

[ComptrBob]

With 27 of 30 skiers having skied in the qualifying run, both Patrick and Bryon have advanced as well as the other two Americans.

Patrick started in the #1 slot, bib #14 for those who will watch later.

[ComptrBob]

Deneen starts 11th out of 20. Two other Americans have already finished out of the medals.

Wilson starts 18th.

Two skiers left until Patrick.

[ComptrBob]

Okay, Patrick is up next. Go baby!

[ComptrBob]

He had a RNS, received no score, must have crashed. Ugh...

[ComptrBob]

Four guys left to ski. Two Canucks in first and second place.

[ComptrBob]

Dale Begg-Smith goes into first.

[ComptrBob]

Canada takes Gold (first ever at a Canadian venue), USA takes Bronze. Exciting contest, these guys can ski !

[The Chaperone]

He had a RNS, received no score, must have crashed. Ugh...

If it makes you feel any better, I'm guessing his approach was probably +EV for your bet. Seems like going balls out and hoping for the best, would be optimal for pursuing a gold, as opposed to playing it safe and hoping to sneak onto the podium with a bronze.

[ComptrBob]

If it makes you feel any better, I'm guessing his approach was probably +EV for your bet. Seems like going balls out and hoping for the best, would be optimal for pursuing a gold, as opposed to playing it safe and hoping to sneak onto the podium with a bronze.

Exactly.

At this level of competition, you have to ski extremely fast, stick tough jumps and make no mistakes. Mogul skiers have a saying: "You half-ass boogie a run and you'll end up on your ass" :-) If you're not aggressive, you actually have more of a chance of crashing.

[jabjazz]

was just reading this....




OLYMPICS

Alex Bilodeau gives Canada its first gold
Host nation wins its first-ever gold on home turf when Bilodeau wins the men's moguls




Reporting from Vancouver - Tension gripped the finish area, and, quite likely, most of the nation.

Alex Bilodeau stood in the place where his Canadian countrywoman Jenn Heil watched her gold medal wind up in the hands of an American freestyler on the last run of the night.

Less than 24 hours later, fate was kind to Canada and, at the same time, reached out and touched an unheralded American on Sunday night.

Gold, Canada

Bilodeau, a 22-year-old from Montreal, won the gold medal -- which was the first for Canada when the Olympics have been on its home soil -- when the final skier of the men's moguls competition, Guilbaut Colas of France, was fast but not sharp enough, tumbling to sixth place .

Second, by 0.17, was defending Olympic champion Dale Begg-Smith of Australia, who grew up not far from Cypress Mountain, and the bronze went to Bryon Wilson, who grew up in Butte, Montana.

"It's too good to be true," Bilodeau said in a TV interview, and also paying tribute to his disabled older brother Frederic.

He later told reporters: "The party is just starting for Canada."

Bilodeau, like the women's winner Hannah Kearney, had a difficult time in the Olympics four years ago, placing 11th. He admitted he wasn't quite ready for the moment in Turin.

Wilson's presence on the podium was a stunning development. At the start of the season, he wasn't even on the American A-Team and only got into a World Cup race when a teammate was injured.

He came on strong -- recording two second-place finishes in World Cup action - and peaked at precisely the right time. He was half a point behind Begg-Smith, who showed his superior quality in the air, finishing with the highest air score of the 20 competitors in the final.

Wilson's finish made up for what was shaping up as a disappointing night for the American men. Michael Morse completed a clean but unremarkable run and finished 15th.

Later, teammate Nathan Roberts skied off the course and then reigning world champion Patrick Deneen wiped out and crashed into a control gate.

The 22-year-old Deneen certainly lived up to his nickname, The Rocket. He hit his first jump cleanly but then accelerated and picked up way too much speed in the middle of the course, leading to the crash.

Live by speed, lose by speed.
It came down to Wilson to redeem the night for the United States. He made a statement in qualifying, placing third behind two of the bigger names in the sport, Colas and Bilodeau, and finished ahead of Begg-Smith.

[jabjazz]

I did not bet this, I don't follow people without proven records, but if he was the current world champion, those seem like fat odds.