BAL/PIT Props

[Prop Man]

I thought I'd start a thread with props in the AFC Championship game. At this point, I'm not that comfortable listing too many bets, but here's a couple I've made that I do not care to bet more.

FG Under 3.5 -165.
Solid bet given the teams, the stadium, the cold, and the total. I wouldn't make this bet in the PHI/ARI game. Not an exciting bet since we are laying a good chunk of juice, but it is probably one that is available at many places (can't say that for many props).


Largest Lead by either team: Over 13.5 -115.
The total is much lower in this game than the PHI/ARI game (34 vs 47), but the line is higher (6 vs 3.5). I think the line is much more important than the total for this prop. I've take Over 13.5 -115 in the BAL/PIT game and Under 14.5 -110 in the PHI/ARI game. This prop is around every year for the Super Bowl, but I can not recall seeing it for regular season games. That's good because it means there has been less chances for the lines to get hammered into line on a weekly basis and the books to learn what line they should set to get equal action.

[Always+EV]

Question regarding the Largest lead by either team Over 13.5. Since the O/U is 34, and believing this will win, wouldn't the Over be a good bet as well?

Curious to opinions on this

[deadball]

>>FG Under 3.5 -165.

If this is good then UN 4 -200 is great! CRIS decided to go with
the UN 4 semi-alternative line and it's a steal to pick up that 1/2
a FG for the extra juice. Look for places that copied. I did not play
the UN 3.5 but did hit the UN 4 a couple times.

[PerpetualCzech]

>>FG Under 3.5 -165.

If this is good then UN 4 -200 is great! CRIS decided to go with
the UN 4 semi-alternative line and it's a steal to pick up that 1/2
a FG for the extra juice. Look for places that copied. I did not play
the UN 3.5 but did hit the UN 4 a couple times.

I went to hit this, but passed at the now current -300 price. I'm late to the party, oh well.

I know Pitt is a tough place to kick FGs, but I also know that TD:FG ratio goes down as the game total goes down. Lots of factors involved for this prop which are very tough to quantify.

[Prop Man]

>>FG Under 3.5 -165.

If this is good then UN 4 -200 is great! CRIS decided to go with
the UN 4 semi-alternative line and it's a steal to pick up that 1/2
a FG for the extra juice. Look for places that copied. I did not play
the UN 3.5 but did hit the UN 4 a couple times.


Yes, U4 -200 is great. I'm surprised you were able to get it at CRIS. I took it twice, at worse prices than that. and each time they moved after I bet it.

[Prop Man]

but I also know that TD:FG ratio goes down as the game total goes down.


This is true. Lower totals have lower TD/FG ratios (fewer TDs for each FG). But that doesn't mean FGs increase in lower total games.

[Prop Man]

Question regarding the Largest lead by either team Over 13.5. Since the O/U is 34, and believing this will win, wouldn't the Over be a good bet as well?

Curious to opinions on this


Not necessarily. Given I have like the Over 13.5, I don't have any opinion on the total in the game. In fact, the reason I like the over 13.5 is dependent on the line and total being fair.

[TJMAXX]

balt pitt OV 14' -1750 at cris: Not a big win, but I have UN 14' at less than 3%.

[Prop Man]

I agree it has value too.

[PerpetualCzech]

Under 4 FGs -200 was so strong that it's probably still close to BE even after that FG :)

[Prop Man]

two in first 9 minutes. looking piss-poor now :(

[Prop Man]

>>FG Under 3.5 -165.

If this is good then UN 4 -200 is great! CRIS decided to go with
the UN 4 semi-alternative line and it's a steal to pick up that 1/2
a FG for the extra juice. Look for places that copied. I did not play
the UN 3.5 but did hit the UN 4 a couple times.

CRIS has two FG lines for the SB. It shows the incredible price you got on the U4.


TOTAL FIELD GOALS MADE IN THE GAME BY BOTH TEAMS
3:20 PM 9305 TOT FG PIT/ARI o3½+145
9306 TOT FG PIT/ARI u3½-175

3:20 PM 9307 TOT FG PIT/ARI o4+300
9308 TOT FG PIT/ARI u4-400