JK, The Shrink and 10 Winning Years, What Say You Bob?

[Jon in Oakland]

Interesting thread:

http://forums.eog.com/online-sportsbooks-and-gambling-discussion/weekend-blog-by-john-kelly-268625.html

Bob, are we to take Weitzner's word? JK seems convinced.

[ComptrBob]

Interesting thread:

http://forums.eog.com/online-sportsbooks-and-gambling-discussion/weekend-blog-by-john-kelly-268625.html

Bob, are we to take Weitzner's word? JK seems convinced.

I always take Weizner's word for anything, along with Culver, Greene, Feist and Root.

These guys wouldn't shade their records would they? LOL

[Jon in Oakland]

OK, but could Shrink have ten winning years? Is he someone to follow long term? Do you have a sense of his handicapping prowess?

[ComptrBob]

OK, but could Shrink have ten winning years? Is he someone to follow long term? Do you have a sense of his handicapping prowess?

First, he isn't an originator, he's a follower. His "BW years" were probably winning years since he was betting for BW, probably getting a percentage down on those originated plays.

He posted on EOG for a month of baseball last year, 2009, went 52-63, down -16.1 units before he gave up. AFAIK, this Winning Wednesdays (30-22-2) is the first time he has tracked his plays "long term". His Stardust and Money Talks record is 38-30-2 and he beat Fezzik in a 2006 head to head match with Hilton lines, but had a losing record.

[Jon in Oakland]

Do you think JK believes this stuff or is just saying it? Unfortunately, I think it's the latter. This pains me because I think JK is a superior radio talent and has been incredibly generous to me over the years.

[ComptrBob]

Do you think JK believes this stuff or is just saying it? Unfortunately, I think it's the latter. This pains me because I think JK is a superior radio talent and has been incredibly generous to me over the years.

Since JK is on Weitzner's payroll, I don't think he is going to contradict or question his veracity on this type of issue. Since Weitzner isn't really "selling his picks" or has them available on a regular basis, whether he has won for 10 straight years isn't of great interest to me. Its a pretty lame way to try to invest the Shrink with credibility.

[ComptrBob]

On this week's Winning Wednesday, Weitzner tells an interesting story about his biggest bet ever.

Apparently, it was on June 7, 2004, Tampa Bay vs Calgary in Gm 7 of the Stanley Cup. Calls in the bet, says he was drunk and then blacked out so he didn't even remember the amount bet. His speech was so slurred that the book called his agent (credit wagering?) to confirm the bet and the amount. Turns out he bet $330,000 on TB and TB wins 2-1.

Now this guy wants us to believe that he has won 10 seasons in a row? Hmmm ...

[The Chaperone]

On this week's Winning Wednesday, Weitzner tells an interesting story about his biggest bet ever.

Apparently, it was on June 7, 2004, Tampa Bay vs Calgary in Gm 7 of the Stanley Cup. Calls in the bet, says he was drunk and then blacked out so he didn't even remember the amount bet. His speech was so slurred that the book called his agent (credit wagering?) to confirm the bet and the amount. Turns out he bet $330,000 on TB and TB wins 2-1.

Now this guy wants us to believe that he has won 10 seasons in a row? Hmmm ...

I'd like to run that good one time.

[ComptrBob]

Hard to imagine owning a reasonably successful website, winning (and winning big) for 10 straight years and then committing suicide.

Very odd.

[Samo]

One story is that he made a 500k NCAA BB bet that lost.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

The fact that he followed up his posted suicide note with a comment that "I am not a bookie, agent, or runner" is interesting. The theory that he committed suicide to prevent asset seizure seems reasonable, although I don't know what the laws are involving asset seizure from the dead. Not to mention he posted plenty of times over the years about his problems with drugs and alcohol. He may have been under the influence of something, not to mention that there's a correlation between mental illness/depression and addiction.

[The Chaperone]

I'd like to run that good one time.

As it turns out, I don't run all that bad.

[The Chaperone]

The fact that he followed up his posted suicide note with a comment that "I am not a bookie, agent, or runner" is interesting. The theory that he committed suicide to prevent asset seizure seems reasonable, although I don't know what the laws are involving asset seizure from the dead. Not to mention he posted plenty of times over the years about his problems with drugs and alcohol. He may have been under the influence of something, not to mention that there's a correlation between mental illness/depression and addiction.

Something that surprised me that I read a few months ago... Something like 40-50% of people who commit suicide are drunk when they do it. Not saying that is the case here. Seemingly premeditated suicides would have a lower percentage.

[PerpetualCzech]

On this week's Winning Wednesday, Weitzner tells an interesting story about his biggest bet ever.

Apparently, it was on June 7, 2004, Tampa Bay vs Calgary in Gm 7 of the Stanley Cup. Calls in the bet, says he was drunk and then blacked out so he didn't even remember the amount bet. His speech was so slurred that the book called his agent (credit wagering?) to confirm the bet and the amount. Turns out he bet $330,000 on TB and TB wins 2-1.

I missed this the first time around. I don't believe for a second a book took this much on an NHL game. Call me crazy, but somehow Shrink lying about this seems a lot more plausible to me.

[donovan]

Something that surprised me that I read a few months ago... Something like 40-50% of people who commit suicide are drunk when they do it. Not saying that is the case here. Seemingly premeditated suicides would have a lower percentage.

or maybe they want to commit suicide, and getting drunk makes it easier to do so. In other words, maybe it isn't the drinking that leads to suicide but rather wanting to commit suicide makes them drink so the job can be done.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

or maybe they want to commit suicide, and getting drunk makes it easier to do so. In other words, maybe it isn't the drinking that leads to suicide but rather wanting to commit suicide makes them drink so the job can be done.

That's what I was thinking, or overdoses with pills where they drink to make the pills more effective.

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I missed this the first time around. I don't believe for a second a book took this much on an NHL game. Call me crazy, but somehow Shrink lying about this seems a lot more plausible to me.

In the post where he mentioned having gotten 12 DUIs, from March 2006, he mentioned another negative consequence of drinking as having made three very large bets while drunk, the Tampa bet and two other bets that lost, and told the same story about the book needing to call the agent to verify the bet lost. While I would also question a book taking a bet that big on an NHL game, since he mentioned a net loss on the very large drunken bets, it doesn't seem like he was lying as a boast.

[kimlee]

I don't believe for a second a book took [$330K] on an NHL game.

On Winning Wednesdays, Shrink said "something like $330K to win $250K, but Shrink's post at EOG says only $200K across many books.

Shrink' Biggest Bet on Winning Wednesdays (http://www.talkzone.com/episodes/199/1982.html#;)
Shrink's Biggest Bet at EOG (http://forums.eog.com/online-sportsbooks-and-gambling-discussion/most-youve-ever-won-135393.html?highlight=hockey+calgary)

It was game 7 [of the Stanley Cup finals] ... and I had accounts everywhere...

I started dialing each bookmaker on my list and betting TAMPA for at least 5k a shot on the Money Line.

I remember JAZZ refusing to take a 10k bet from me and calling a mutual Friend [agent] because they heard me slurring my words. ...

I recall laying anywhere between -130 and -180 ...

Although I was moving for BW at the time, the sports books knew he didn't bet Hockey ...

I was in a drunken stupor not realizing I had risked over 200k on Tampa Bay until I called up all the sports books the next day to find out how much I had bet and won...

Even my record keeping that night was off by almost 50k...

It was the final game of NHL finals, he slurred his speech, and might have bet to win $5K-$10K across twenty books, laying a total of $250K to win $160K. He was off by $50K that night, and now six years later he misremembers the lay amount as the win amount. Isn't that plausible?

The theory that he committed suicide to prevent asset seizure seems reasonable.

I agree about substance abuse and depression. But it seems like he overcame bigger problems before. Besides, if his assets were seized he could claim he was framed by jealous books he beat. Unless he made a remarkable recovery, honesty and shame would not have been an issue.

The ten year "winning record" is interesting though. I presume he won for the first five years because he moved for BW. He also sold TheRx and had revenue from EOG. But then maybe he doubled up when losing to salvage a couple seasons. This would make it likely to win for five years in a row. Finally, facing financial and legal pressures, he pulled a Baker and couldn't bear the loss of face in front of family, friends, and forums. This jibes with his winning record, lack of ability, and sudden demise. It still doesn't explain the wife though.

[The Chaperone]

330k to win 200k?

[GroovinMahoovinPartDeux]

I was thinking more along the lines of him being broke after the asset seizure and not wanting to face that.

[kimlee]

being broke after the asset seizure and not wanting to face that.

It seems like he could face being broke if he previously recovered from loss of a prospective medical career, drugs, and alcohol. On the other hand he certainly wanted money more than he wanted honesty or integrity. He bragged about his BW connections for years, and pretended to be an expert handicapper. He admitted repeatedly getting drunk and betting $100K on random games. He might have hidden legal and financial troubles from most of his family and friends, and considered suicide the easy way out.

The wife part really disturbs me though.