Prop Man
01-30-2009, 07:02 AM
These may be good bets, but not for everyone:
Data from 2000-2008 in games with lines of 10 or less:
5.9% of games had safeties (-1603)
6.9% of games went into Overtime (-1352)
I don't think I'd touch either unless I got -1000 or better and had extra money left over after betting all the props. Even if there is edge, it is small, better to use the money on a play closer to even money to get bigger bang for the buck.
Blocked punts:
From 2003 to 2008, there were 78 blocked punts out of 14,532 total punts. That's a 0.5% chance for each punt. If we assume there will be 9.5 punts in this game (a little high, but trying to be conservative since the No is likely the better side), then that means there is a 95% chance of no blocked punts (99.5% raised to the 9.5th power is 95%). Fair value is -1906 for a typical NFL game. One of the quarks of NFL statistics is that it is easy to find how many punts were blocked against the punting team, but it is not easy to find how many punts were blocked by the defensive team. Without looking further into how PIT and ARI did on punt blocking (defensively or offensively), my assumption is that the NO is a good bet at -1000, but again, I wouldn't bet it until I had exhausted all other prop possibilities.
4th down conversions:
There are three ways to look at this prop.
1. League-wide numbers
2. Individual stats for ARI and PIT in the last couple of years
3. Pointspread and total related stats (maybe higher totals mean more 4th down conversions? maybe not, I don't know)
I don't have data #3, so I can only focus on #1 and #2.
1. From 2003-2008, there were 1,428 4th down conversions made in 2,917 attempts (49%). This averages to 0.93 per game made and 1.9 per game tried.
2. In 2007, ARI was 12 for 14 in 4th down conversions made/ attempted.
In 2008, ARI was 8 for 16
In 2007, PIT was 7 for 13
In 2008, PIT was 3 for 12
The average team from 2003 to 2008 was 7.4 for 15.2. PIT seems to go for it a bit less, but the sample size is pretty small. ARI has a nice conversion rate, but again the sample size is pretty small. Its the attempted rate that I care about, more so than the conversion rate. And with those numbers being close to league average numbers, it doesn't seem like either team has a higher propensity to go for it on 4th down than the league average.
Are there a higher rate of 4th downs attempted in the playoffs? Possibly. From 2003-2008, the playoff rate was 2.15 attempted per game, 13% more than in the regular season.
I also imagine the underdog probably tries more 4th down conversions than the favorite, but I don't have data on that.
All in all, I'd estimate 2.1 attempted, with ARI doing 55% of the attempts, and ARI converting 45% of the time while PIT converts 49% of the time.
Here are the estimates and the money line values using the poisson distribution for whether the event occurs for the two teams (I'm not convinced the poisson is the best to use, but even if it isn't, I think it should be close...thoughts?)
ARI 4th downs attempted 1.16 -218
ARI 4th downs made .52 +146
PIT 4th downs attempted 0.945 -157
PIT 4th downs made .463 +169
Either convert a 4th down? .983 -167
The values I see have PIT and Either fairly valued...but I see betting value on the No on ARI at -115.
Data from 2000-2008 in games with lines of 10 or less:
5.9% of games had safeties (-1603)
6.9% of games went into Overtime (-1352)
I don't think I'd touch either unless I got -1000 or better and had extra money left over after betting all the props. Even if there is edge, it is small, better to use the money on a play closer to even money to get bigger bang for the buck.
Blocked punts:
From 2003 to 2008, there were 78 blocked punts out of 14,532 total punts. That's a 0.5% chance for each punt. If we assume there will be 9.5 punts in this game (a little high, but trying to be conservative since the No is likely the better side), then that means there is a 95% chance of no blocked punts (99.5% raised to the 9.5th power is 95%). Fair value is -1906 for a typical NFL game. One of the quarks of NFL statistics is that it is easy to find how many punts were blocked against the punting team, but it is not easy to find how many punts were blocked by the defensive team. Without looking further into how PIT and ARI did on punt blocking (defensively or offensively), my assumption is that the NO is a good bet at -1000, but again, I wouldn't bet it until I had exhausted all other prop possibilities.
4th down conversions:
There are three ways to look at this prop.
1. League-wide numbers
2. Individual stats for ARI and PIT in the last couple of years
3. Pointspread and total related stats (maybe higher totals mean more 4th down conversions? maybe not, I don't know)
I don't have data #3, so I can only focus on #1 and #2.
1. From 2003-2008, there were 1,428 4th down conversions made in 2,917 attempts (49%). This averages to 0.93 per game made and 1.9 per game tried.
2. In 2007, ARI was 12 for 14 in 4th down conversions made/ attempted.
In 2008, ARI was 8 for 16
In 2007, PIT was 7 for 13
In 2008, PIT was 3 for 12
The average team from 2003 to 2008 was 7.4 for 15.2. PIT seems to go for it a bit less, but the sample size is pretty small. ARI has a nice conversion rate, but again the sample size is pretty small. Its the attempted rate that I care about, more so than the conversion rate. And with those numbers being close to league average numbers, it doesn't seem like either team has a higher propensity to go for it on 4th down than the league average.
Are there a higher rate of 4th downs attempted in the playoffs? Possibly. From 2003-2008, the playoff rate was 2.15 attempted per game, 13% more than in the regular season.
I also imagine the underdog probably tries more 4th down conversions than the favorite, but I don't have data on that.
All in all, I'd estimate 2.1 attempted, with ARI doing 55% of the attempts, and ARI converting 45% of the time while PIT converts 49% of the time.
Here are the estimates and the money line values using the poisson distribution for whether the event occurs for the two teams (I'm not convinced the poisson is the best to use, but even if it isn't, I think it should be close...thoughts?)
ARI 4th downs attempted 1.16 -218
ARI 4th downs made .52 +146
PIT 4th downs attempted 0.945 -157
PIT 4th downs made .463 +169
Either convert a 4th down? .983 -167
The values I see have PIT and Either fairly valued...but I see betting value on the No on ARI at -115.