NFL Stats Website

[Jon in Oakland]

Have you guys seen this?

http://www.advancednflstats.com

[The Chaperone]

I have seen this before and maybe I need to look further into it, but one problem I tend to see with these type of things (I used to be a baseball stat geek before I ever got into betting so I've seen plenty of similar stuff for MLB) is that the models don't take into account the relative strengths of each team.

For example, this graph shows the Vikings to be a 55-60% fave (can't quite tell which) to win the game at halftime. Presumably this is because they were up 1 point and receiving the 2nd half kickoff. However, from memory I can tell you they were more in the range of a -300 fave to win the game based on in running betting at MB and Pin. That's a big discrepancy.

[Prop Man]

I've seen this site before, I like it. One negative I do have (which Chap touched on) is the complete ignorance of the betting world and the lines set. This site is not alone in that, there seems to be many sites that deal with sports in a very intelligent way, but completely ignore a key piece of information - the betting market. I think part of it is their ignorance, part of it is they look down on gamblers as degenerates, and another part is just stupidity/arrogance.

Still, if Brian Burke, no matter how much smarter he is than me, continues to write in the New York Times that Team X has a 70% chance of beating Team Y this weekend, but the betting line has the game at Pick, then he's the idiot regardless of the numbers he throws in.

[PerpetualCzech]

For example, this graph shows the Vikings to be a 55-60% fave (can't quite tell which) to win the game at halftime.

An even more telling sign of this is that the graph starts out exactly at the 50-50 mark. Obviously wrong, as you and Prop Man have already pointed out.

And what's up with that spike up at the end? WP was 3% when CAR starts kneeing at the end of the game (wtf?). Then it jumps to 12% after the second knee!

[Jon in Oakland]

I've seen this site before, I like it. One negative I do have (which Chap touched on) is the complete ignorance of the betting world and the lines set.

He does say the following on his website (I put the passage in bold):

While I don't object to gambling, it doesn't really interest me. I realize a lot of football fans are interested in it, and I'm happy if anything here helps inform fans of all kinds. I do however use Vegas odds and spreads as consensus yardsticks for my own straight-up models, and sometimes it's fun to see if some math can beat "the system." I just lack that gene for risk, and cheering for my favorite team is excitement enough for me.

[Prop Man]

Thanks...I wonder if he ever found it interesting enough to compare and actually record results. I'll bet if he had favorable results, we'd know about it :) Apologies for being a cynic.

[The Chaperone]

Thanks...I wonder if he ever found it interesting enough to compare and actually record results. I'll bet if he had favorable results, we'd know about it :) Apologies for being a cynic.

Well those who followed him on the CAR pre-game ML and 2h ML would like to keep his info under wraps.