Super Bowl MVP

[Prop Man]

I haven't found any value at all on the Super Bowl MVP bet since the 2001 STL/NE Super Bowl when I was lucky to be able to parlay Brady and NE winning :-) Too bad the book I got it for went belly-up the week after :(

Here is the historical breakdown of Super Bowl MVPs:

QB 22 52.4%
RB 7 16.7%
WR 5 11.9%
Defense/Special Teams 19.1%

I assume that MVP will go to a player on the winning team regardless of how dominant an opposing player may have been. I think only once did the MVP come from the losing team (Super Bowl V?).

I make thse assumptions if PIT wins:
- Roeth will get a bit less credit
- anyone on defense will get a bit more credit

This isn't like the Ravens Super Bowl win where they had no offense and an incredible defense...so the MVP award was given to Ray Lewis as a symbolic gesture towards the defense. But I do think it is more likely to go to a defensive player for PIT (Polamalu if he has 2 INT or Harrrison if he has a couple of sack and a forced fumble...something like that) than in a typical Super Bowl.

I make these assumptions if ARI wins:
- they will win because of the passing game.
- that means Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin will get more credit than they deserve by the MVP voters
- James & Hightower's probability of winning should be very low

Here are the breakdowns I used - assuming PIT has a 69.7% chance of winning the game (using -230 in the ML. Even if you think the ML is too low, as I do, it is best to use this number in the estimates since you can always bet -230 in the ML on PIT)

The first number is the estimated probability the player (or position) wins given his team wins. The second number is the estimated probability the player (or position) wins the award

Roethlisberger: 48% 33.5%
Parker: 16% 11.1%
Ward 10% 7%
PIT defensive player and others: 27% 18.8%

Warner: 60% 18.2%
James/Hightower: 5% 1.5%
Fitzgerald 20% 6.1%
Boldin 5% 1.5%
Others 10% 3%

The closest values I found were on Roethlisberger (2-1), Parker (8-1) and Ward (15-1). I thought Roethlisberger and Parker were offered at fair value, so it wasn't worth a bet. I thought Ward was offered at slightly positive value, but I am not that comfortable with these numbers and decided not to bet as I wanted more room for error. So I passed on all.


Lastly, am I correct in assuming the MVP prop is not eligible for betting in LV since it is not played out on the field?

[Twoniner]

I posted something similar at BC in regards to Ben. I took as much as I could on him at some rogue +250 +235's. He gets a lot of credit for "leadership" and not turning the ball over. Without a dominant running back, I think his chances are about the same as the average superbowl QB.

I do agree that with the perception going in, that Pitt's defense has a better than normal shot to take the award. I was hoping for better, but I took a sunflower seed on James Harrison +4000 He probably has 3 games this season that would qualify him in the chance that Pittsburgh doesn't have a standout offensive performance. I think he is more correlated to Pitt winning than most players, because of the increased pass rush opportunities. A meaningful sack in the first half and some garbage work in the 2nd half could work out.

[TJMAXX]

Roth +220 was available for the better part of a week at a major online shop...