NFL Week 10

[NFLguy]

Last week I ended with 2-3 for this posting site, making the Y-T-D 16-19.
I have not had the year I did last year (sigh), but the numbers will improve.

Here are my suggestions:
Tampa Bay + 10: 2 good defenses should keep this game close.
Buffalo + 9.5: I have this game within a field goal.
New Orleans - 13.5: This looks like legal stealing. I have it 40-14.
Atl/Car Over 43.5: My numbers come up 33-20.
New England/Indy Under 48: This looks like a 20-20 score heading for OT.

[rhinoceros]

I'm curious how you make a decision on a game like NO/StLou. You say you "make it 40-14." So if the WA line were 22, would you still like NO? Do you adjust some because it is such a big line? Backdoor covers, teams not running up the score, etc contribute to some dogs covering big lines in games that really were blowouts.

I know StLou sucks. Everyone knows StLou sucks. I will bet them anyway (closer to gametime).

[PerpetualCzech]

Atl/Car Over 43.5: My numbers come up 33-20.

Current line at Pinnacle Atlanta -1 -102. I smell that you may be hiding some +EV opportunities from us ...

[NFLguy]

I'm curious how you make a decision on a game like NO/StLou. You say you "make it 40-14." So if the WA line were 22, would you still like NO? Do you adjust some because it is such a big line? Backdoor covers, teams not running up the score, etc contribute to some dogs covering big lines in games that really were blowouts.

I know StLou sucks. Everyone knows StLou sucks. I will bet them anyway (closer to gametime).

My picks are based on yards per point scored, Offense against defense (history), home and away. I average the yards per game history, offense against defense, and divide by the scoring history of "X" yards produce 1 point scored. The number used is the average for both sides.
Example: Team "X" produces 350 yards of offense on the road (by average), and this results in an average score of 24 points. Team "Y" allows 300 yards against them at home, and this results in an average score of 20 points against them. Yards average 325 (allowed and earned) and yards per point average 14.5 + 15, or a combined 14.75 yards per point. 325 divide 14.75 results in a projected score of 22 points for team "X".

Good for you that you bet STL.

[NFLguy]

Current line at Pinnacle Atlanta -1 -102. I smell that you may be hiding some +EV opportunities from us ...

Neither the linesmaker or I hit the number very often, or even close. I call 3 points (up or down) from the number as a good analysis. Year to date, the lines setter has landed within 3 of the total 23 times, and I have 31 times. we are about even on over estimates (57 to 58), and i have an advantage on under estimates. All this being said, I only bet what is 7 or more in favor of my personal estimate against the line.