NBA 2nd Half betting

[Prop Man]

The Lakers were a 11-point favorite in tonight's game against the Bobcats. At the half, the Bobcats were up by 1-point. The 2nd half line was Lakers -8.5.

I looked historically at numbers that were in those ranges (around 11-point fave for the game, and around 1-point lead for the away dog at the half), and assuming the sampling was good....what would you think if the dog +8.5 in the 2H won at a clip equivalent to -130?

Would this make you want to bet on the Bobcats +8.5 -110? Or do you need/want more information on the Lakers/Bobcats and think the 2H line should be more team-dependent and not based on different teams in different situations in the past? Specifically, is there a reason to believe that really good teams (like the Lakers and Celtics) should buck the trend of other games with similar lines and 1H results in history?

[PerpetualCzech]

I've been betting NBA 2Hs for a while but have never reached the point where I would breakdown 2H sides team-by-team. I've always felt there wouldn't be enough of a sample since teams change so much season to season.

I can tell you that not breaking down team-by-team is still enough to find a decent edge every now and then but I do believe that knowing the teams and players (especially the benches) would be a big advantage to 2H side betting. I did once try a study on how teams that do well against 2H line in games 1-41 perform in games 42-82, but didn't find much.

Also, from your example I wouldn't measure how often the +11 dog covers the 2H +8.5 line, but rather how often it would cover +7.5 for the game.