Receptions

[Prop Man]

Here's the estimates I've been using on receivers, number of catches and reception yardage. I'm sure others will disagree on some players, I'd like to hear any and all disagreements. I hope the formatting makes it readable.

PIT: 18.6 completions / 229.6 yards

The first number is the percentage of completions for the team going to the receiver.
The second number is the mean receptions
The third number is the yards/reception expected
The fourth number is the total reception yardage (2nd number x 3rd number)

Ward: 28% / 5.21 / 13.0 / 67.7
Holmes 20% / 3.72 / 15 / 55.8
Washington 16% / 2.98 / 14 / 41.7
Miller 19% / 3.53 / 11 / 38.9
Moore 9% / 1.67 / 8 / 13.4
Sweed 5% / 0.93 / 9.5 / 8.8
Parker 3% / 0.56 / 6 / 3.3
Other: 0% (this is too low, but since I'm typically betting unders on individual players, I don't mind being too low on Others)

PIT Notes:
I think the volatiltiy of Hines Ward may be high. Even if he is right that he is 100% going into the game, he could get aggravate his injury early and sit out the rest of the game like he did against BAL. I am not touching any Ward Overs.

If Ward is out, that means Sweed will play more. I am not touching any Sweed Unders.

Parker's expected yardage is 3.3 receiving yards, but that doesn't mean Over 1.5 receiving yards +155 is a good bet.


ARI: 23.5 completions / 264.3 yards

Fitgerald 28% / 6.58 / 13.5 / 88.8
Boldin 24% / 5.64 / 13 / 73.3
Breaston 16% / 3.76 / 11.5 / 43.2
Urban 10% / 2.35 / 9.5 / 22.3
Arrington 5% / 1.18 / 6.5 / 7.6
Hightower 8% / 1.88 / 6.5 / 12.2
James 4% / 0.94 / 6.5 / 6.1
Others 5% / 1.18 / 9 / 10.6

ARI notes:
I decided to take my time shopping for the best Fitgerald Unders in yardage. Looks like I may have missed it though. His numbers opened up high (96.5ish around even money), and now all the high numbers have big vigs on the Under. Hopefully it'll come back as more prop betting occurs before gametime.

[deadball]

I think that the injury to Ward gives you outs with the other two
receivers - Holmes and Washington. I had a lean to Washington over
anyway and if Ward is limited I think he is the one that will benefit most.
I don't bet many overs but Nate W is one I have taken ov 2.5 -130 and
ov 33.5yds -120. Got some Holmes stuff early but most of what I see now
is considerably higher.

Betting unders on Ward could work out well. If he's limited it's a big gain.

Parker looked pathetic trying to catch the ball last game. The line
on him is anywhere from OV/UN 1/2 yd to 1.5 yds. If you had bet the
UN 1/2 yard receiving all season long with him you'd have
won 11 and lost 2. He caught a ball in 3 games out of 13 and in one
of those (last week) he caught a pass and lost anyway (-2yds).

On E James I think you have a typo in his receptions slot. One catch
for him sounds about right. Guessing it's supposed to read 0.94.

[Prop Man]

On E James I think you have a typo in his receptions slot. One catch
for him sounds about right. Guessing it's supposed to read 0.94.

oops, yes, you are right. I'll see if I can edit that now.

[The Chaperone]

My numbers are very similar to yours with one exception. I have pretty much all Cards yardages as lower and Warner's yardage much lower. I have, however, noticed that the market is more in line with what you posted, so I am probably wrong. Perhaps I am not taking into account the fact that the Cards will be down and throwing all game in an effort to comeback. Or perhaps others are overestimating that fact (they are only a 6.5 point dog).

As far as the betting is concerned, I am fading Ward, Fitzgerald, Boldin (to a lesser extent) and Breaston. I am backing Holmes, Washington, and Hightower.

[Jeff Jones]

All this is fine and dandy and I really appreciate Prop Man's generosity and assiduity
but would someone please post the results of H. Ward's MRI. I'd even be happy with a single
midline coronal image.

I have yet to see the results of a midline coronal image ever being revealed on a gambling website.

[PerpetualCzech]

I have yet to see the results of a midline coronal image ever being revealed on a gambling website.

I believe the good doctor had one as his avatar over at LVA.

[Jeff Jones]

I believe the good doctor had one as his avatar over at LVA.

As a somewhat intimation, I'd cast my lot with Deadball.

[Jeff Jones]

I believe the good doctor had one as his avatar over at LVA.

No that was a photo gone awry at Glamour Shots at the Summerlin Mall.

[EdTeach]

Fitzgerald #'s have bottomed out and will only get better, don't bet No TD -110, Un. 90+ yds, un. 6.5 -130 today when you can get all +110 or better on gameday...

[Prop Man]

I made these two plays today:

1Q Boldin more receptions than Holmes -130

1H Holmes +1.5 receptions vs Boldin -130


ARI is more likely to get the ball first to start the game, thus there's a good chance they will be throwing more in the 1Q than PIT. But once we get into the full 1H, I think PIT will get almost as many opportunities.

Using the assumptions that Boldin is expected to get 5.64 catches, and Holmes is expected to get 3.72, then if each quarter is equal, then:

1Q Boldin: 1.41 receptions
1Q Holmes: 0.93 receptions

Using Poisson, this gives Boldin an edge of -193 (48.1% vs 24.8% and 27.1% push) in the 1Q...this is without compensating for the possible edge that Boldin will have in the 1Q since ARI is likely to get the ball first.

1H Boldin: 2.82 receptions
1H Holmes: 1.86 receptions

Giving Holmes a 1.5 reception edge and using Poisson, I get Holmes +1.5 worth -145. not a big edge, but given the 1Q bet on Boldin, I really like the combination of the two bets.

[The Chaperone]

I just bet Fitz under 109 yards.

LOL

[Prop Man]

No analysis, but just listing some stuff I bet on individual player props in case it spurs some discussion. Please criticize if you see something that looks negative EV.

Holmes Over 3.5 receptions +105
Washington Over 2.5 recepitons -125
Fitgerald Under 6.5 receptions -110
Boldin Under 5.5 receptions -110
Breaston Over 3 recepitons -150
Miller longest reecption Over 17.5 yards -125
Miller Under 45.5 receiving yards -110
Miller -1.5 receptions vs Pope -125
Pope Over 6.5 receiving yards -115
Boldin -12.5 receiving yards vs Homes +125

Warner 1st completion Over 8.5 yards +100
Warner 1st pass complete -185
Roethlisberger 1st completion over 7.5 yards -115
Roetlisberg 1st pass complete -185
1H Roethlisberger +12.5 passing yards vs Warner +100

[The Chaperone]

Similar to a lot of the stuff I bet. I do have Fitz OV 6.5 receptions, but at +125 juice, so I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you there. I have tons of Fitz under receiving yards, which made that over more attractive as a hedge at a decent number.

[Justin1820]

Any of you have estimates to how much a half of a reception is worth? Obviously the closer to 0 the greater the rec is worth.

[The Chaperone]

Any of you have estimates to how much a half of a reception is worth? Obviously the closer to 0 the greater the rec is worth.

This is more of a poisson question. I don't have a table handy but I'm sure you could google, poisson distributions.