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View Full Version : Why do people believe that online poker is fair? My fable for the day....maybe :-)


bfbagain
08-04-2009, 01:10 PM
When asked if online poker is rigged, it's nearly unanimous that the response is, no, of course it's not rigged. Then the follow-up arguments usually turn to rng's and how the online sites receive certifications, e.g., ask FTP, and they'll cite chapter and verse on theirs. But, maybe a better question is, is it "fair?"

An apt illustration into the thinking behind the fairness, or the integrity of gaming question, usually involves the rhetorical question, "why would they, they have so much to lose." But as most informed people know, certainly those with knowledge of Vegas and how casinos have an intimate relationship with the NGC, lots of shenanigans have taken place and when faced with the possibility of sanctions, none, or small ones, are forthcoming.

UB/AP I think, also put that question to rest, in that everyone now knows that lots of additional monies were taken from unsuspecting players. Granted, that didn't require any nefarious and high-tech programming designed to produce insidious results, but.....computers are programmed, and monitored, by people. It's not the computers, but the people behind them that create unethical situations, whether it's merely the use of a super-user password which can monitor things in real time, or advanced automatic computations being run as hidden services....

Now, I'm not a programmer, but other than that, I have a very strong background with computers and computer security. And I also know that lots of things can be programmed and many more can be flagged; if anyone doubts whether certain aspects of computing can't be used to identify patterns, and project outcomes with unbelievable accuracy, then they're either living in the dark ages or are just computer illiterates. They might want to run a google search on NSA algorithms - or do some research on the NSA, period.

The use of advanced algorithms in computer programs, shuffle master is a classic example, makes some things, very interesting, at least to me.

Now I know that people want to believe that all is well online, and I have no real reason to think otherwise, other than personally observing anomalies, at least to me :-) - but that is hardly reason enough to assume that insidious happenings are taking place.....Still, some things are hard to fathom.

If I (assuming I had the know how, and I don't) were to design a way to increase the overall profitability of an online poker site, through a nefarious computer program that was basically undetectable, i.e., where the rng could easily pass certification testing, it would be where I would rotate accounts, while those accounts were playing, and adjust when those accounts would have a slightly higher loss ratio. This would then merely be attributed to normal (or slightly higher than) variance by the individual player whose acct., in that mix, was flagged. Then after a time, move on to another set of accounts. At any one time, FTP has approx. 75K players online. 200 of 75K accts. a day, every day. Anyone complaining would be ridiculed. :-)

By doing this, you would insure higher rakes and more redeposits and no one would be the wiser.

I think when all is said and done, that many players who play online, when they move to live games, - and they may not even know why, other than the "old explanation" that you see so many more hands online, and that must be why you see so many more bad beats or strange anomalies in hands and the timing of those - will notice a big difference in live play. That's not to say they don't get sucked out on the river or lose boats to str8 flushes and quads etc., in live play, but it will feel different to them. I know it does to me.

Just my little conspiracy thought of the day :-) as well as for your reading amusement. :-)

cheers
bfb

DustinYoung
08-04-2009, 01:28 PM
This is an issue that has been tossed back and forth for years and years now.

My response in the beginning was always the same. When i started playing live poker, i was making $x/hr. There were plenty of things back then that affected my earning power, not the least of which was having to deal with sitting next to people that were smoking in my face while i played, just as an example. The smoking clearly cost me money. I felt worse. I played less. I didnt play as well when i played.

That being said, i was still earning a living. My earn was likely ($x-$smoking)/hr., but the point is, i was still earning.

Im sure there are things that are costing me money online. Collusion, porn surfing, my wife screaming at me, RNG's not being random? I dont know. But i still earn. Its extremely hard to quantify exactly how much money i could be making currently without all of those things interfering (assuming that they are), but if im still making money, what should i do aside from recognizing that those threats exist and remain vigilant?

JoeyNorth
08-09-2009, 05:05 PM
bfbagain, something like what you are talking about is definitely possible. I think it would have to be very subtle to go undetected though. Also, this higher loss ratio would have to be given to winning players rather infrequently for them not to notice over the long term.

Don't forget that many winning players are using software for tracking their hands and they know what their chances should be in a given situation. After sometime they would notice if they weren't getting a fair shake.

Raybolts
08-09-2009, 05:37 PM
Joey, what tracking software do you use and does it interfere w/ your other programs on your computer?

Craps Master
08-09-2009, 09:49 PM
Don't forget that many winning players are using software for tracking their hands and they know what their chances should be in a given situation. After sometime they would notice if they weren't getting a fair shake.

Not really. Even with tracking software, you would probably just think you're running bad as opposed to getting cheated by someone manipulating the RNG or something along those lines.

LVHCM1
08-11-2009, 08:37 AM
Green Chip: General
That's a little strong

Posted By: bfbagain on 23 July 09, 8:53 p.m. in response to: Wow! (Sentry)

I didn't come away thinking any of that. In fact, I think it's an extremely insightful, and should be to everyone, post.

What most people here are unaware of, are the "other" people who are long time members here, who have been engaged in out of the box thinking and earning, for some time.

Over the years, GBV has taken his share of hits, but I don't think anyone who truly has a clue, doubts his abilities.

This is a fantastic post and thanks to you, GBV, for taking the time to write it.

cheers
bfb

When you're getting bluffed by the GBV, I can't like your chances in your latest endeavor...

bfbagain
08-11-2009, 10:35 AM
Green Chip: General
That's a little strong

Posted By: bfbagain on 23 July 09, 8:53 p.m. in response to: Wow! (Sentry)

I didn't come away thinking any of that. In fact, I think it's an extremely insightful, and should be to everyone, post.

What most people here are unaware of, are the "other" people who are long time members here, who have been engaged in out of the box thinking and earning, for some time.

Over the years, GBV has taken his share of hits, but I don't think anyone who truly has a clue, doubts his abilities.

This is a fantastic post and thanks to you, GBV, for taking the time to write it.

cheers
bfb

When you're getting bluffed by the GBV, I can't like your chances in your latest endeavor...

I don't have an endeavor, unless trying to learn poker is what you're referring to. As to GBV, he does have many detractors, you being one, Kim Lee another, and I haven't any real idea, one way or another of how successful he is or isn't. My point simply is this: It's a good thing to look at things in varying ways. I would think that you'd be one of the first to embrace that type of thinking. I also recognize the audience he was playing to. And lastly, as I also mentioned, he was waaay out in front of something, internet (but non-AP) related, that has exploded across the globe.

So it's a good thing to keep options open. And now for a disclaimer: I'm not in any way looking to compare GBV with JG, but who can deny that looking at casino games, with a different perspective, hasn't proved profitable.

That's the extent of my GBV comments. As to this little fable, I also said I have no idea what can and can't be done as it relates to casino gaming on the net. I can state, that almost anything is possible when computer technology is the centerpiece.

A couple of years ago people seemed to doubt that shuffle master was able to (re)program ASMs, i.e., the MD2, with their backdoor management system, i.e., that the cards dealt and the order they were dealt could be tracked and the advantage was known instantaneously. Now that more people have read the patents, more people have come to realize that that possibility exists, albeit it is expensive.

RFID, once people became accustomed that casinos were using it to track comps, some, as one casino in Mn. did, merely has the chips without activating the readers. :-)

Keeping eyes wide open has it's benefits. If GBV helped one person to keep their eyes open a little wider, then he did a good thing, and I make no apologies for my comments.

And as you probably know, I'm a big fan of yours, and you too, aren't without controversy. :-)

Me, I'm just trying to avoid going on tilt when I have 9-1 advantages and lose. :-)

cheers
bfb

kimlee
08-11-2009, 01:42 PM
What most people here are unaware of, are the "other" people who are long time members here, who have been engaged in out of the box thinking and earning, for some time.


You can't think out of the box unless you first learn to think in the box. fOrtune cookies say "be creative". The problem is GBV has not been successfully creative. He gave five lame examples that never made him money. He admits to being a low-rolling bonus hustler who haunts internet cafes playing 80-cent poker tournaments. If he is lucky then somebody will buy his error-ridden books or get him an online referral bonus.

I'm just flabbergasted at the way people opine on things they clearly don't understand. I'm reminded of a poster on LVASports who claimed Stevie Y. was the greatest handicapper he ever heard of ... after 3+ years of losing picks. Some people thought Jimmy The Greek was knowledgeable due to his media position. Some think Jim Feist and Wayne Root are knowledgeable due to their advertising.

Another "creative" idea was David McDowell's Blackjack Ace Prediction book. Ultimately the method was a loser. When reasonable calculations showed negative EV, the author just made up positive numbers and didn't respond further. This illustrates how creativity can be costly. Of course McDowell didn't play his method under the described conditions, just like GBV doesn't do any of the shit he writes about. Their pubications are about vanity.

There is no information in somebody who denies profits in everything. But there is also no value in somebody who posts random stupid shit.

martidani
08-11-2009, 04:33 PM
Nice post kim. Pretty soon your invitations to the ball are going to be warranted.